Indian Benchmark Indices Open Lower Amid Tariff Uncertainty and OPEC+ Supply Boost

Market Update at 9:45 AM: Indian benchmark indices opened lower on Monday, reflecting cautious investor sentiment amid global trade uncertainty. The dip followed signals from U.S. officials suggesting a possible delay in proposed tariffs, though no clear timeline was offered. Adding to the pressure, oil prices eased as OPEC+ increased supply more than expected.

By 9:18 am, the BSE Sensex was down 131 points, or 0.16 per cent, at 83,301. Similarly, the Nifty50 declined 37 points, or 0.15 per cent, to trade at 25,425.

U.S. President Donald Trump stated on Sunday that several trade deals are nearing finalisation, with countries to be informed of revised tariff rates by July 9, effective from August 1. While the initial plan in April introduced a 10 per cent base tariff, Trump hinted at higher "reciprocal" rates of up to 50 per cent. He also warned of levies as high as 60 to 70 per cent on nations aligning with what he called "Anti-American policies" of the BRICS bloc—Brazil, Russia, India, and China.

Among the major laggards on the Sensex were Bharat Electronics, Tech Mahindra, HCL Tech, Eternal, and Maruti, falling up to 1.6 per cent. On the other hand, Trent, Asian Paints, Bajaj Finserv, Reliance Industries, and HDFC Bank opened with gains.

Sector-wise, Nifty IT, Metal, and Media indices slipped up to 0.4 per cent, while FMCG, PSU Bank, Consumer Durables, and Oil & Gas sectors posted gains of up to 0.5 per cent.

Pre-Market Update at 7:45 AM: Indian equity benchmarks Nifty 50 and Sensex are expected to open on a flat to slightly positive note today, July 4, reflecting subdued global sentiment. The GIFT Nifty hovered around 25,536 in early trade, up 9 points, indicating limited movement at the open.

Asian markets opened lower as caution prevailed over the looming July 9 deadline related to U.S. tariffs under former President Donald Trump. U.S. stock futures also edged lower as investors stayed cautious about potential trade disruptions.

Back home, attention remains firmly on the ongoing negotiations between India and the U.S. for an interim trade agreement. India has maintained its stance on sensitive sectors such as agriculture and dairy. If both sides resolve key differences, the deal might be concluded before July 9 — the deadline tied to the temporary suspension of Trump-era tariffs.

On the institutional front, FIIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs 760.11 crore, while DIIs pulled out Rs 1,028.84 crore on Friday. This reflects ongoing investor caution amid earnings season uncertainty and global trade tensions.

Markets ended slightly higher on Friday, with the Sensex gaining 193.41 points to close at 83,432.88, and the Nifty 50 rising by 55.70 points to settle at 25,461. Despite this, both indices posted a weekly loss of 0.70 per cent, ending a two-week winning run, largely due to profit-taking and foreign fund outflows.

In the U.S., markets were closed for the Independence Day holiday, but futures slipped in early trading. For the past week, though, Wall Street performed well — S&P 500 rose 1.72 per cent, Nasdaq gained 1.62 per cent, and the Dow jumped 2.3 per cent.

Meanwhile, President Trump’s new tariffs will now take effect from August 1, not July 9. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent clarified this shift, stating it targets countries that have not yet signed trade deals with the U.S.

In commodities, Brent crude fell 1.2 per cent to USD 67.48 a barrel after OPEC unexpectedly raised output for August. WTI crude dropped by 2.03 per cent to USD 65.64. Gold prices also dipped 0.3 per cent, trading at USD 3,323.71 per ounce, as Trump hinted at possible trade breakthroughs and delayed tariffs. The dollar index stayed steady at 96.967, close to a multi-year low, reflecting a wait-and-watch approach by traders.

For today, RBL Bank remain on the F&O ban list.

Disclaimer: The article is for informational purposes only and not investment advice.