Nifty and Sensex Likely to Open Higher; RBI Policy in Focus This Week

Pre-Market Update at 7:40 AM: On Monday, September 29, equity benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty 50 are expected to open on a positive note, tracking global cues. At 7:09 AM, the GIFT Nifty was at 24,805, up 100 points.

Last week, Indian markets faced sharp selling pressure, with both Sensex and Nifty slipping more than 2.5 per cent, ending a three-week winning streak. Losses were broad-based and intensified in the final trading session.

Market direction this week will depend on several factors including the Reserve Bank of India’s monetary policy decision, progress on the India–US trade deal, updates on US tariffs, domestic and global macroeconomic data, gold price trends, and foreign fund flows. The expiry of September derivative contracts is also expected to add volatility.

On Friday, September 26, Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) sold equities worth Rs 5,687.58 crore, taking total September outflows to Rs 30,141.68 crore. Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) bought equities worth Rs 5,843.21 crore, extending their net buying streak to 24 sessions.

Indian markets closed lower for the sixth straight session on Friday. The Nifty 50 declined 236.15 points (0.95 per cent) to 24,654.70, while the Sensex fell 733.22 points (0.90 per cent) to 80,426.46. India VIX rose over 5 per cent to end above 11. For the week, Nifty slipped 2.65 per cent, its steepest fall in nearly six months. Sectoral losses were broad. Nifty Pharma dropped 2.14 per cent after the US announced a 100 per cent tariff on branded and patented drugs, while Nifty IT fell 2.45 per cent following Accenture’s muted revenue outlook. Broader markets also remained weak, with Nifty Midcap and Small-Cap indices extending losses for a fifth straight day.

US markets closed higher on Friday as inflation data matched expectations. The Dow Jones gained 299.97 points (0.65 per cent) to 46,247.29, the S&P 500 rose 38.98 points (0.59 per cent) to 6,643.70, and the Nasdaq added 99.37 points (0.44 per cent) to 22,484.07. However, all three indices posted weekly losses. The 10-year US Treasury yield was steady at 4.18 per cent.

The US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index rose 0.3 per cent in August and 2.7 per cent year-on-year, its highest since February. Consumer spending rose 0.6 per cent in August, above July’s 0.5 per cent. Meanwhile, the risk of a US government shutdown looms as the September 30 funding deadline nears.

Gold prices edged higher, with MCX Gold Futures up 1.03 per cent at Rs 113,788 per 10 gm. Crude oil fell as Iraq’s Kurdistan resumed exports after more than two years. WTI futures declined 1 per cent to USD 65 per barrel, while Brent slipped below USD 70 per barrel. The US dollar index was steady at 98.134.

For today, RBL Bank will remain on the F&O ban list.

Disclaimer: The article is for informational purposes only and not investment advice.