NIFTY Index Chart Analysis

In the last fortnight, equity markets witnessed wild swings as the tariff war escalated—volatility reminiscent of seminal events like the COVID-19 pandemic and the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). Just last week, market volatility spiked sharply, with the India VIX surging by 46.18 per cent to 20.11 on a weekly basis. This heightened volatility caused the Nifty to oscillate within a wide range of 1,180.25 points. Despite these turbulent moves, the benchmark Nifty 50 ended the truncated week with only a marginal loss of 75.90 points (-0.33 per cent).[EasyDNNnews:PaidContentStart]

The Nifty began last week with a massive gap-down opening of over 1,000 points and plunged to a panic low of 21,743.65, breaching its prior swing low of 21,964.40. However, the index managed to defend the crucial 100-week moving average (MA) on a weekly closing basis. This MA, currently placed at 22,153, continues to act as a key support level in the near term. As long as the Nifty remains above this support, the broader range-bound movement is likely to persist, potentially avoiding any significant drawdown. However, a breach of this level could lead to structural weakness in the index.

On the upside, strong resistance is positioned in the 22,860–22,960 zone, a confluence of the 50-day MA and last week’s high. A breakout above this resistance could push the rally towards the 61.8% retracement level of the recent downswing, which lies at 23,065. Sustaining above this level may lead to a retest of the swing high of 23,869 over the medium term.

From a technical perspective, the 14-period daily RSI stands at 48.35, showing signs of a potential range shift as it rebounded from the 40 level without breaching it. The weekly RSI is at 44.28 and remains neutral, with no visible divergence from the price trend. The weekly MACD remains bearish and trades below its signal line, although the narrowing histogram suggests a possible bullish crossover in the days ahead.

Relative Rotation Graphs (RRG) indicate that the Nifty Infrastructure, Metal, Bank Nifty, Services, Consumption, Commodities, and Financial Services indices are positioned within the leading quadrant. These sectors are expected to show relative outperformance regardless of the market's direction. In contrast, the Nifty Pharma Index is in the weakening quadrant, while the Nifty Auto and IT indices are placed in the lagging quadrant. Additionally, the Nifty Midcap 100, Media, and Realty indices are also in the lagging quadrant, though they are showing signs of improving relative momentum.

In summary, immediate resistance for the Nifty lies in the 22,860–22,960 range. A sustained move above this zone could lift the index toward 23,065–23,100. That said, volatility is expected to remain high in the near term, and the index may continue to trade within a broad range.

Hence, a cautious approach is warranted. Investors are advised to limit leveraged positions and prioritize safeguarding profits at higher levels. For new positions, the focus should remain on stocks displaying relative strength. Given the prevailing uncertainty, adopting a conservative strategy with modest exposure is recommended for the fortnight. Effective risk management and selective participation will be crucial to navigate the expected market swings.

STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS
ASTER DM HEALTHCARE ......................... BUY ......................... CMP ₹500.80
BSE Code : 540975
Target 1 .... ₹558 
Target 2 ..... ₹572 
Stoploss....₹462 (CLS)

Aster DM Healthcare was established by Dr Azad Moopen in 1987 as a single clinic in Dubai, UAE. Since then, the organisation has evolved into a leading integrated private healthcare provider, operating across multiple segments including hospitals, clinics, pharmacies, and diagnostic labs. It serves patients across various economic segments in several GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council) countries as well as in India. Following the segregation of its GCC and India businesses, the listed entity now comprises only the India business, effective from April 3, 2024. The company has emerged as one of the largest healthcare service providers in the country, with a strong presence across primary, secondary, tertiary, and quaternary care.

From a technical perspective, the stock is trading near the pivot level of a 14-week consolidation, forming a Stage 1 base. It tested its 100-week moving average (MA) and rebounded to trade above its key moving averages—namely the 20-, 50-, and 200-day MAs. Notably, all these moving averages are trending in the desired direction. The stock meets most of the CANSLIM characteristics. It has an EPS Rank of 71, which is a fair score; an RS Rating of 87, which is good, indicating outperformance relative to other stocks; and a Buyer Demand rating of B+, reflecting recent buying interest. A Group Rank of 10 places it within a strong industry group— Medical-Hospitals—and a Master Score of B indicates strong overall fundamentals. The weekly MACD has given a bullish signal, and the weekly RSI has moved into the bullish zone. Buy this stock in the range of ₹490–₹505 for targets of ₹558 and ₹572, with a stop loss at ₹462.

BHARTI AIRTEL ............................... BUY ............................ CMP ₹1757.30
BSE Code : 532454
Target 1 ...... ₹1,800 
Target 2 ..... ₹1,932 
Stoploss.....₹1,660 (CLS)

Bharti Airtel is a global communications solutions provider, serving over 550 million customers across 15 countries in India and Africa. The company also has a presence in Bangladesh and Sri Lanka through its associate entities. It ranks among the top three mobile operators globally, with its networks covering over two billion people. Airtel is India’s largest integrated communications solutions provider and the second-largest mobile operator in Africa. Its retail portfolio includes high-speed 4G/5G mobile broadband, Airtel Xstream Fiber (offering speeds of up to 1 Gbps with convergence across linear and on-demand entertainment), music and video streaming services, digital payments, and financial services.

From a technical standpoint, the stock is comfortably trading above its key moving averages—around 5 per cent and 9 per cent above the 50-day and 200-day MAs, respectively. It is currently forming a base on the weekly chart and is trading approximately 1 per cent below a crucial pivot point. From a CANSLIM perspective, the stock checks most of the boxes. It has an EPS Rank of 99, which is great and reflects strong earnings consistency; an RS Rating of 85, which is good; Buyer Demand rated at B, suggesting steady interest; a Group Rank of 16, placing it within a strong industry segment; and a Master Score of A, which is the best possible rating. Buy the stock with a stop loss at ₹1,660 for targets of ₹1,880 and ₹1,932.

*LEGEND:  ◼ EMA - Exponential Moving Average.  ◼ MACD - Moving Average Convergence Divergence  ◼ RMI - Relative Momentum Index  ◼  ROC - Rate of Change  ◼ RSI - Relative Strength Index
(Closing price as of April 11, 2025)

Disclaimer : Above recommendations are based on various technical parameters and any fundamental input has not been considered for the recommendations. Follow strict stop loss for the recommendation.

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