NIFTY Index Chart Analysis

Following a strong upmove in the week before last, during which the Nifty 50 Index surged by around 4.5 per cent, the index adopted a more consolidatory tone during the mid-week trading sessions as the daily range narrowed below its 10-day average. However, Friday witnessed a sharp expansion in the daily range, which nearly doubled and led to the filling of the gap that had been created at the start of the last week. A sharp sell-off saw the Nifty 50 giving up more than 300 points from the week’s high. Despite this decline, the index managed to close the week above the 24,000 mark with modest gains of 0.79 per cent. Volatility also resurfaced, with India VIX spiking by 10.93 per cent to 17.16.

From a technical standpoint, the Nifty tested several important levels on both the daily and weekly charts. On the daily chart, the opening upside gap was filled, while on the weekly chart, the index successfully defended the 50-week moving average (MA) placed at 23,925. On the daily timeframe, the index closed around the 200-day moving average (DMA), marking a critical technical juncture. The region between 23,850 and 23,925 now emerges as a crucial support zone. Consolidation appears imminent, especially considering the Nifty has rebounded over 11 per cent from its April 7 lows, and minor corrective retracements cannot be ruled out. Should the index breach the 23,850 level on a closing basis, it may trigger an extended retracement towards 23,200, where the next major support is situated. Conversely, on the upside, immediate resistance is seen between 24,180 and 24,250, and a sustained move above this range could open the gates for further advances towards 24,580–24,750.

Importantly, during the recent rebound, the index tested a rising trendline resistance, which was violated on its way down and is now expected to act as a resistance level. The weekly chart has produced a candle formation akin to a shooting star, increasing the likelihood of consolidation in the coming sessions. However, it is important to note that individual candle formations should not be interpreted in isolation but should be assessed within the broader technical context.

Overall, the technical structure suggests that market participants should now focus more on protecting gains at higher levels. While external factors could trigger some reactions, the underlying market buoyancy remains intact. Nevertheless, given the steepness of the recent rally, natural corrective retracements are a possibility. Investors are advised to focus on fresh purchases selectively, preferring low-beta stocks demonstrating strong relative strength.

Relative Rotation Graphs (RRG) show that the Nifty PSU Bank Index has rolled inside the leading quadrant, along with the Consumption, Commodities, Financial Services, Infrastructure, Metal, and Nifty Bank Indices. Although slight weakening in relative momentum is visible in the Metal and Financial Services sectors, they are still likely to outperform the broader markets relatively. Meanwhile, the Nifty Services Sector Index has moved into the weakening quadrant. The Nifty Midcap 100 and Realty Indices are showing strong improvements in their relative momentum while staying within the lagging quadrant. The IT and Auto Indices continue to underperform, lingering in the lagging quadrant.

On a brighter note, the Media Index has moved into the improving quadrant, indicating a likely phase of relative outperformance. Additionally, the Nifty PSE, Energy, and FMCG Indices are also placed within the improving quadrant, suggesting potential opportunities for investors tracking sectoral strength.

STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS
MPHASIS .................................... BUY ............................... CMP ₹2,538.40
BSE Code : 526299
Target 1 .... ₹2,750 
Target 2 ..... ₹2,880 
Stoploss....₹2,380 (CLS)

Mphasis’ purpose is to be the “Driver in the Driverless Car” for global enterprises by applying next-generation design, architecture, and engineering services to deliver scalable and sustainable software and technology solutions. Customer centricity is foundational to Mphasis and is reflected in its Front2Back™ Transformation approach. Front2Back™ leverages the exponential power of cloud and cognitive technologies to provide a hyper-personalised (C=X2C2TM=1) digital experience to clients and their end customers.

The stock has declined by 29.5 per cent from its January 2025 highs, making a low of ₹2,183. Subsequently, the stock retraced about 38 per cent from this low. However, as it failed to cross above the 38 per cent retracement level, the move proved to be a minor pullback, and the stock resumed its downward trend, marking a fresh low around ₹2,044.25. As a result, a double bottom-like pattern has formed on the daily chart, with the neckline placed around ₹2,572. Sustaining above this level would confirm a breakout, potentially taking the stock up to ₹2,750. The 14-period RSI has entered bullish territory and is on a rising trajectory. Additionally, the MACD has crossed above the zero line for the first time in four months, indicating strengthening bullish momentum, which bodes well for the stock.

One can consider buying the stock upon sustaining above ₹2,572 for a target range of ₹2,750–2,880, with a stop-loss at ₹2,380.

KIRSHNA INSTITUTE OF MEDICAL SCIENCES ........... BUY .......... CMP ₹674.05
BSE Code : 543308
Target 1 ...... ₹770 
Target 2 ..... ₹800 
Stoploss.....₹637 (CLS)

Krishna Institute of Medical Sciences (KIMS) is one of India's largest corporate healthcare groups, with a strong presence across Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra, Kerala, and Karnataka. Its network of hospitals, operating under the "KIMS Hospitals" brand, provides integrated, multidisciplinary healthcare services, focusing on tertiary and quaternary care at affordable prices. The company has expanded into a chain of multi-specialty hospitals. The first hospital in the network was established in Nellore in 2000 with around 200 beds. The flagship hospital in Secunderabad, with a capacity of 1,000 beds, is among the largest private hospitals in India.

From a technical perspective, the stock is comfortably placed above its key moving averages, trading around 13 per cent and 20 per cent above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, respectively. It is currently near the pivot point of a 14-week long consolidation pattern and is meeting all the CANSLIM parameters. The stock has an EPS Rank of 82, which is a good score indicating consistent earnings growth, and an RS Rating of 90, reflecting strong outperformance compared to other stocks. It also has a Buyer Demand rating of A-, highlighting recent investor interest, a Group Rank of 19, signifying its presence in a strong industry group (Medical–Hospitals), and a Master Score of B, which is close to the highest rating. Overall, the stock exhibits strong fundamentals and technical strength, suggesting it could stay in momentum. One can consider buying this stock for a target range of ₹770–800, with a stop-loss at ₹637.

*LEGEND:  ◼ EMA - Exponential Moving Average.  ◼ MACD - Moving Average Convergence Divergence  ◼ RMI - Relative Momentum Index  ◼  ROC - Rate of Change  ◼ RSI - Relative Strength Index
(Closing price as of April 11, 2025)

Disclaimer : Above recommendations are based on various technical parameters and any fundamental input has not been considered for the recommendations. Follow strict stop loss for the recommendation.