NIFTY Index Chart Analysis

The markets have traded in a largely trending fashion over the past fortnight, carrying a steady positive undertone. This optimism has been fuelled by a renewed sense of progress in India–U.S. trade relations. After months of diplomatic tension and tariff disputes, a “positive meeting” between trade negotiators from both nations has paved the way for intensified efforts toward a bilateral trade agreement. The easing of uncertainty was evident in the India VIX slipping close to the 10 mark—one of its lowest levels in recent times.[EasyDNNnews:PaidContentStart]

In this backdrop, the Nifty 50 index has delivered its highest closing since July 11, 2025, while also surpassing the crucial 61.8 per cent retracement level of the decline from 25,669.35 to 24,337.50. Typically, counter-trend rallies stall near this retracement mark; however, the index managed to close above it with a sizable bullish candle and broad-based participation—an encouraging sign. Adding to the strength, the index witnessed a bullish crossover of the 20-day EMA over the 50-day EMA while continuing to trade above its long-term moving averages, reinforcing the underlying resilience. Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index has been sustaining below the immediate support of 97, a development supportive of emerging markets.

The broader market action has been equally noteworthy. Both the Nifty Midcap 100 and Smallcap 100 indices posted their best closing since late July, aided by a neckline breakout of the double bottom pattern and a bullish crossover of the 20-day EMA above the 50-day EMA. This expansion in breadth underscores the broadening of market participation.

On the sectoral front, heavyweights such as Bank Nifty and IT—which together account for nearly 45 per cent of the index weight—are positioning for the next leg of the rally. Since December 2022, Bank Nifty has been moving within a channelised structure, with intermediate corrections arrested in the 9–12 per cent range. Historically, buying near the 52-week EMA has proven rewarding over an 8-month horizon. With the current 7 per cent correction bringing the index near its 52-week EMA, conditions appear favourable for a potential rebound. Similarly, the Nifty IT index, which has already corrected around 33 per cent, is approaching a zone that has historically offered incremental buying opportunities (as seen after 35 per cent drawdowns). Combined with improving global macros and hopes of a rate cut, the sector appears well-placed for recovery, creating a favourable risk–reward setup.

From a technical standpoint, immediate support for the Nifty 50 lies in the 25,035–24,980 zone, followed by 24,880. On the upside, the key resistance is placed around 25,350, and a sustained move above this could open the door toward 25,550. Importantly, the index is now testing a crucial trendline resistance formed by connecting multiple intermediate tops. While it continues to trade within a large symmetrical triangle, its position near the apex suggests that a decisive breakout could be imminent. The higher-top, higherbottom structure reaffirms the prevailing non-disruptive trend.

That said, the extremely low India VIX warrants caution, as prolonged complacency often precedes a phase of heightened volatility. With the upcoming U.S. Fed policy outcome on the horizon, any hawkish surprise could trigger a spike in volatility and cause directional instability. In this environment, protecting profits and adopting a stock-specific approach remains prudent.

STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS
METRO BRANDS LTD. ........................ BUY ........................... CMP ₹1294.80
BSE Code : 543426
Target 1 .... ₹1,430 
Target 2 ..... ₹1,500 
Stoploss....₹1240 (CLS)

Metro Brands is one of India’s largest footwear speciality retailers and has established itself as one of the most aspirational home-grown names in the footwear category. The company opened its first store under the ‘Metro’ brand in Mumbai in 1955 and has since evolved into a one-stop destination for all footwear needs. It retails a wide range of branded products for men, women, unisex, and kids, catering to every occasion—be it casual or formal. In addition to footwear, the company also offers a diverse range of accessories such as handbags, belts, and wallets.

From a technical perspective, the stock has moved above the pivot point of a nine-week-long cup pattern with a depth of around 16 per cent. It is currently trading above its key short- and long-term moving averages, all of which are trending upwards in a favourable sequence. The 14-period daily RSI is also on a rising trajectory and has recently shifted into a super-bullish zone. Notably, while the price retreated from higher levels, the RSI held firmly above 60, a positive sign for the stock.

Furthermore, the daily MACD remains in a strong uptrend and is diverging from its nine-period average, thereby reinforcing the positive bias. Considering these factors, we recommend buying this stock with a stop loss at ₹1,240 for a target range of ₹1,430– 1,500.

BANK OF BARODA ................................. BUY ....................... CMP ₹240.60
BSE Code : 532134
Target 1 ...... ₹251
Target 2 ..... ₹265 
Stoploss.....₹234 (CLS)

Established in 1908 and nationalised in 1969, Bank of Baroda (BOB) is a public sector bank with a significant presence in both domestic and international markets. The government announced the amalgamation of Vijaya Bank and Dena Bank with BOB, effective April 1, 2019. In terms of asset size and total business, BOB ranks among the largest public sector banks in India. As of March 31, 2025, the bank serves over 140 million customers worldwide through a network of 8,508 branches, 9,316 ATMs, and a workforce of more than 75,000 employees.

Technically, the stock is on the verge of breaking out above the neckline of a double bottom pattern. This breakout is taking shape within the broader trading range of ₹231–251. Momentum indicators suggest a shift in trend. The 14-period daily RSI has surpassed its previous swing high and is climbing steadily, while the daily MACD has generated a bullish crossover, further confirming the positive outlook.

Based on these signals, we recommend buying this stock with a stop loss at ₹234, where the 200-DMA is placed. The first upside target is set at the upper end of the range, around ₹251, followed by ₹265.

*LEGEND:  ◼ EMA - Exponential Moving Average.  ◼ MACD - Moving Average Convergence Divergence  ◼ RMI - Relative Momentum Index  ◼  ROC - Rate of Change  ◼ RSI - Relative Strength Index
(Closing price as of September 16, 2025)

Disclaimer : Above recommendations are based on various technical parameters and any fundamental input has not been considered for the recommendations. Follow strict stop loss for the recommendation.

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