NIFTY Index Chart Analysis

Over the past fortnight, market movements have been largely driven by a mix of global headlines and domestic developments. The initial jolt came after U.S. President Donald Trump threatened a “massive increase” in tariffs on Chinese imports, proposing an additional 100 per cent levy over existing duties. The escalation in trade tensions briefly unsettled global sentiment, curbing risk appetite across equity markets.Soon after, attention shifted to the Q2FY26 earnings season and the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) upward revision of India’s GDP growth forecast for FY26 to 6.6 per cent, up 20 basis points from earlier estimates. The IMF cited a “strong first quarter” that more than offset the drag from higher U.S. interest rates. These contrasting headlines — a positive domestic macro backdrop offset by global uncertainty — have deprived the markets of a sustainable trending move.[EasyDNNnews:PaidContentStart]

On Nifty’s weekly expiry day, the index opened on a positive note, quickly crossing the 25,300 mark. However, it failed to surpass last week’s high of 25,331. Selling pressure soon emerged, pulling the index below the previous two sessions’ lows. As the session progressed, the intensity of selling deepened, dragging the index to an Intraday low of 25,060, near its 20-day moving average (DMA). Although a mild recovery followed, Nifty eventually settled 0.32 per cent lower at 25,145.50.

Technically, the index closed below key short-term supports — including the previous two sessions’ lows and the crucial 25,152 level — while also slipping under the 25,220 mark, which had seen a breakout earlier in the week. The session was marked by a large bearish candle, resembling a bearish engulfing pattern, formed on higher volumes — a sign of institutional distribution. The candle’s wide daily range of nearly 250 points,well above the 10-day average, reinforces short-term weakness. Interestingly, this bearish setup has appeared near a cluster of prior swing highs, where similar reversals were witnessed in the past. The index’s inability to close above the previous day’s high for two consecutive sessions, along with heavier volume on the down day, suggests a weakening undertone.

From a technical perspective, the Nifty has faced resistance at the 78.6 per cent Fibonacci retracement level of its recent downswing and continues to oscillate within a symmetrical triangle formation, a pattern that typically precedes a strong directional breakout. For now, the index is finding support at its 8-EMA and 20-DMA. A close below the 20-DMA (25,067) and Tuesday’s low of 25,060 would confirm a bearish reversal, opening the door for a slide toward the 50-DMA at 24,871. Meanwhile, the 14-period RSI has eased to 55, and a declining MACD histogram signal waning upward momentum. Despite these near-term signs of fatigue, the broader structure remains constructive, as Nifty still trades comfortably above all major moving averages — the 20-, 50-, 100-, and 200-DMA — reflecting its underlying bullish bias. However, Tuesday’s high-volume decline warrants caution.

To regain positive momentum, the index must decisively close above the 25,220– 25,400 resistance zone with strong volume confirmation. Traders should also monitor India VIX closely — a move above the 12–13 range may indicate rising volatility and heighten the risk of further downside pressure in the short term.

STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS
HBL ENGINEERING LTD ........................... BUY ....................... CMP ₹915.20
BSE Code : 517271
Target 1 .... ₹1,004 
Target 2 ..... ₹1,075 
Stoploss....₹856 (CLS)

HBL Engineering Ltd (HEL) is engaged in the manufacturing of industrial batteries, electronics, and engineered products. Its diverse product portfolio caters to key sectors such as telecom, UPS, Defence, and Railways within India.

Technically, the stock has broken out of a 19-day cup pattern, with the consolidation phase finding support slightly above the 23.6 per cent retracement level of its previous upswing. It has also recorded a fresh 52-week high, with the Relative Strength (RS) line touching a new peak — a strong sign of leadership. All short- and long-term moving averages remain in an uptrend, confirming bullish momentum.

Interestingly, HEL meets most characteristics of the CANSLIM model. The stock boasts an EPS Rank of 91, reflecting consistency in earnings; an RS Rating of 93, indicating strong price performance relative to peers; and a Buyer Demand Rating of A+, backed by robust recent accumulation. Additionally, its Group Rank of 27 signals strength within its industry segment. On the indicator front, the MACD has generated a fresh bullish crossover, while the RSI remains in the bullish zone. The Stochastic RSI and Elder Impulse System both confirm positive momentum with a series of bullish signals. In short, HEL has registered a decisive bullish breakout backed by strong technical and momentum indicators. Traders can consider buying the stock with a stop loss at ₹856 for a target of ₹1,004, followed by ₹1,075.

FSN E-COMMERCE VENTURES LTD. .................. BUY ............... CMP ₹255.80
BSE Code : 543384
Target 1 ...... ₹286 
Target 2 ..... ₹315 
Stoploss.....₹240 (CLS)

FSN E-Commerce Ventures Ltd., popularly known as Nykaa, was incorporated in 2012 and is headquartered in Mumbai. The company is engaged in the e-retailing of beauty and fashion products through its three online platforms — nykaa.com, nykaaman.com, and nykaafashion. com. As of June 30, 2025, Nykaa serves over 45 million customers through its digital ecosystem and operates 250 offline beauty destinations across India (as of July 31, 2025).

In October, the stock witnessed a breakout above a key resistance zone, marked by a horizontal trendline, accompanied by a sizable bullish candle and strong trading volumes. Following this breakout, the stock surged to a fresh 52-week high before experiencing a mild pullback with low volumes — a sign of a healthy correction after a sharp rally. The stock currently trades above all key moving averages, which are aligned in the desired direction and sequence — a technically positive setup. From an O’Neil Methodology standpoint, the stock boasts an EPS Rank of 89, indicating consistent earnings performance, and a Relative Strength (RS) Rating of 88, reflecting strong outperformance versus peers. The Buyer Demand Rating of A further highlights robust accumulation and sustained investor interest.

Considering the above factors, we recommend buying the stock with a stop loss at ₹240 and a target range of ₹286–315.

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