NIFTY Index Chart Analysis

The benchmark Nifty 50 index recently corrected by about 780 points from its October 29 high of 26,098. This decline found strong support at a confluence of technical levels — the 50-DEMA, the retest zone of the falling channel, and the 50 per cent Fibonacci retracement of the recent upswing from the September 30 lows to the October 23 high. From this confluence of support, the index rebounded smartly, retracing nearly 50 per cent of the preceding fall while forming higher highs — a constructive sign.[EasyDNNnews:PaidContentStart]

The ensuing rally of nearly 370 points from the lower levels enabled the index to reclaim its 20-DMA, which continues to slope upward, underscoring short-term strength. A key trigger behind this recovery was optimism stemming from encouraging developments in US-India trade discussions, as the US President indicated that a “fair deal” with India was close. This sentiment was visibly reflected in the weekly expiry session’s price action. Although the index opened lower and briefly slipped below the prior day’s low, strong buying emerged at lower levels, driving a 245-point Intraday recovery that pushed the index back near the 25,700 mark by the close.

From a pattern perspective, the Nifty remains positioned just above the breakout point of a broad symmetrical triangle formation, with the price action currently hovering above the upper boundary of this pattern. The index has managed to sustain above its key moving averages — the 20-week, 50-week, and 100-week — all of which have now started to turn upward, providing underlying support. However, the failure to decisively break out above the triangle’s resistance keeps the setup vulnerable to intermittent profit-taking at higher levels.

Looking ahead, the 25,705–25,810 zone is likely to act as a near-term resistance band. A close above this region could open the path for a move toward 26,200 and beyond. On the downside, immediate support is placed near 25,480, followed by a stronger base around 25,318 — the previous week’s low.

Momentum indicators also hint at an improving setup. The 14-period daily RSI, currently around 56, is on the verge of crossing above its 9-period average, signaling a potential buy trigger. The MACD too indicates waning bearish momentum.

In the coming fortnight, as long as the index trades within the 25,300–25,800 range, market movements are expected to remain highly stock-specific. Traders should avoid aggressive positioning until a clear breakout above 25,705–25,810 is witnessed. Protecting profits at higher levels and adopting a measured, selective approach toward relatively stronger sectors and stocks will be essential. Staying light, trailing stop losses diligently, and awaiting directional confirmation remains the prudent strategy

STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS
BHARAT FORGE LTD. ........................... BUY ........................ CMP ₹1,401.80
BSE Code : 500493
Target 1 .... ₹1,490 
Target 2 ..... ₹1,525 
Stoploss....₹1,284 (CLS)

Bharat Forge Limited (BFL), based in Pune, is a technology-driven multinational and a global leader in providing high-performance, innovative, safetycritical components and solutions across multiple sectors, including automotive, power, oil and gas, Construction, mining, rail, marine, defense, and Aerospace. With a presence across 18 manufacturing locations in five countries, BFL holds the largest repository of metallurgical knowledge in its industry.

Technically, the stock has recently experienced a breakout from a 21-week long cup pattern, accompanied by aboveaverage volume, which is a positive sign for the stock's future performance. It is currently trading above its 20, 50, 100, and 200-day moving averages (DMAs), all of which are trending upwards, signaling a strong uptrend. The price action is also following a favorable sequence.

The 14-period RSI on the daily chart has shifted to a super bullish trend, forming a fresh swing high. On the weekly timeframe, the RSI has entered bullish territory for the first time in over a year, confirming the positive momentum. The daily MACD is pointing upwards, staying above its nine-period average, further validating the positive bias in the stock. Given the above factors, we recommend buying the stock with a stop loss at ₹1,284 and a target range of ₹1,490–1,525.

MAHINDRA & MAHINDRA LTD ...................... BUY ................ CMP ₹3,751.15
BSE Code : 500520
Target 1 ...... ₹3,950 
Target 2 ..... ₹4,020 
Stoploss.....₹3,580(CLS)

Mahindra and Mahindra (M&M), established in 1945, is the flagship company of the Mahindra Group. The group, through subsidiaries and joint ventures, operates across 20 industries and 10 sectors. M&M's core businesses include manufacturing automotive products (passenger vehicles, commercial vehicles, electric threewheelers, two-wheelers), farm equipment (tractors and other farm machinery), crop care solutions, and seed distribution.

The stock has recently broken out from an 8-week flat base, closing at a new all-time high with volumes above average, indicating strong investor interest. All key moving averages are in an uptrend, and the Bollinger Bands are expanding, suggesting continued momentum. The stock is currently trading 6.09 per cent above the 50-DMA, and the moving average ribbon is also trending upwards. Additionally, the MACD is pointing northwards, and the RSI has found support at 60 and bounced back. The Stochastic RSI remains bullish, and the KST is nearing a bullish crossover. The Elder Impulse System has formed a series of bullish bars, further reinforcing the bullish outlook.

In conclusion, M&M has registered a strong bullish breakout. We recommend buying the stock with a stop loss at ₹3,580 and a target range of ₹3,950–4,020.

[EasyDNNnews:PaidContentEnd] [EasyDNNnews:UnPaidContentStart]

[EasyDNNnews:UnPaidContentEnd]