NIFTY Index Chart Analysis

Over the last fortnight, the index has oscillated in a pendulum-like manner, with the 50-DEMA acting as a support, while the 20-DMA has capped the upside as a resistance. On the weekly chart, the index formed a hanging man–like candlestick at a fresh all-time high, which is considered an ominous signal. In the subsequent candle on intra-week basis, prices slipped below the low of the hanging man candle but recovered sharply from lower levels, nearly 350 points; resulting in the formation of a long lower shadow.[EasyDNNnews:PaidContentStart]

In the subsequent week, the index formed a high-wave-like candle with shadows on both sides, while remaining within the high–low range of the previous week. This led to the formation of an inside candle on the weekly timeframe. Notably, last week’s trading range stood at 321 points, the narrowest range observed over the past seven weeks, resulting in the formation of an NR7 candle. Consequently, the latest weekly structure reflects an inside candle combined with an NR7 formation, signalling price contraction. Historically, such contraction phases are often followed by expansion in price.

A similar contraction is visible on the daily chart as well. On Friday, the index registered its lowest daily range in several trading sessions, reinforcing the consolidation theme. At present, the Nifty is trading in a sideways consolidation, confined within a narrow 370-point band. The 25,650–25,770 zone has emerged as a crucial near-term support, not only marking the lower boundary of the current range but also aligning with the 50-EMA. While the broader trend remains positive, a sustained move above 26,070 is now necessary to revive upward momentum. Conversely, a decisive breakdown below 25,650 could invite mild profit-taking and lead to a broader range on the downside.

Holding above 26,070 is critical, as this level represents a confluence resistance, coinciding with the 20-DMA and the neckline of a double-bottom pattern. In addition to price-based indicators, volatility also warrants attention. The India VIX, currently at 9.52, is hovering near its historically lowest levels, signalling market complacency. Any sharp uptick in volatility could act as a trigger for a directional move. Until such a development unfolds, market participants are advised to maintain prudent position sizing and avoid leveraged positions.

Momentum indicators offer a mixed but largely neutral picture. The weekly RSI stands at 59.92, remaining neutral and showing no divergence against price, which supports the ongoing range-bound structure. The MACD continues to stay above its signal line on the weekly chart; however, the histogram is flattening, indicating a gradual loss of momentum.

From a pattern perspective, the Nifty is consolidating just above the upper trendline of a broad symmetrical triangle, from which it had broken out earlier. While the breakout remains intact, the index is currently testing its breakout zone. Price action continues to respect rising short- and medium-term moving averages, with the 50-week MA at 24,518 and the 100-week MA at 24,067 providing strong structural support on deeper declines. Meanwhile, the Bollinger Bands are beginning to narrow—a condition that often precedes range expansion in the weeks ahead.

Given the prevailing setup, market participants should adopt a stockspecific approach and maintain a cautious stance on aggressive index positions until the 25,690–26,070 range is decisively resolved. Protecting profits should remain a priority, especially in the absence of strong triggers and in a low-volatility environment. Until a clear directional breakout emerges, the preferred strategy for the coming week would be to stay selective, keep tight stop-losses, and avoid chasing momentum near key resistance levels.

STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS
KEI INDUSTRIES .............................. BUY .......................... CMP ₹4,281.15
BSE Code : 517569
Target 1 .... ₹4,530 
Target 2 ..... ₹4,700 
Stoploss....₹4,030 (CLS)

Established in 1968, KEI Industries is one of India’s leading wire and cable manufacturers and is consistently ranked among the top three players in the organised sector. The company’s diverse product portfolio caters to a wide spectrum of downstream industrial applications. KEI has a broad customer base across both retail and institutional segments, spanning the public and private sectors.

From a technical perspective, the stock has broken out of an ascending base and has closed above its prior parallel highs. It has also closed above the 61.8 per cent retracement level of the previous decline, supported by above-average volumes. The stock is trading above all key moving averages and has closed above the moving average ribbon. The Bollinger Bands have begun to expand following a tight squeeze, indicating increasing volatility. Currently, the stock is trading 3.93 per cent above the 50-DMA. Momentum indicators are firmly bullish, with the MACD generating a fresh bullish signal, the RSI shifting into a bullish range, and both the KST and Stochastic RSI issuing fresh buy signals. Additionally, the Elder Impulse System has formed a strong bullish bar. Overall, the stock has registered a clear bullish breakout. A sustained move above ₹4,285 remains positive and could lead the stock towards ₹4,530–₹4,700, with a stop loss at ₹4,030.

R R KABEL LTD. ................................ BUY .......................... CMP ₹1,487.90
BSE Code : 543981
Target 1 ...... ₹1,570
Target 2 ..... ₹1,622 
Stoploss.....₹1,390 (CLS)

RR Kabel has grown into a key player in the Indian consumer electrical industry and has also emerged as India’s leading exporter of wires and cables, along with being an emerging player in the Fast-Moving Electrical Goods (FMEG) segment. The company operates across multiple business verticals, including Wires & Cables, Switches, Fans, Lighting, Switchgear, and Appliances, offering a diversified product range catering to Residential, Commercial, Industrial, and Infrastructure applications.

Technically, the stock is on the verge of a breakout from a cup-and-handle–like pattern and is trading above all short- and long-term moving averages, maintaining a favourable moving average sequence. The stock meets most CAN SLIM criteria, supported by strong fundamental and technical parameters. It has an EPS Rank of 91, indicating consistent earnings growth, and an RS Rating of 84, reflecting relative outperformance against the broader market. Buyer Demand is rated A, evident from recent accumulation. The 14-period daily RSI has shifted into a superbullish range, while on the weekly timeframe it has entered into bullish zone. Both the daily and weekly MACD are pointing northward and are sustaining above their respective nine-period averages, validating the positive bias in the stock. The stock can be bought for a target range of ₹1,570–₹1,622, with a stop loss at ₹1,390.

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