NIFTY Index Chart Analysis

All is not well with the markets, as the Nifty 50 has declined nearly 1,150 points from the high recorded on January 5, 2026. The severity of the fall is evident from the fact that since that all-time high registered, the index has managed to close in positive territory on only two occasions, with one of those sessions forming an indecisive candle. Global cues have turned adverse, with bond yields rising sharply. Heavy selling in Japanese government bonds and renewed tariff threats from President Trump against Europe have pushed yields higher across major economies. In the US, the 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.29 per cent, its highest level since August, while Japan’s 40-year yield surged past 4 per cent to a record high. Borrowing costs across Europe have also moved up.[EasyDNNnews:PaidContentStart]

Sentiment has further weakened after the US Supreme Court once again deferred a ruling on President Donald Trump’s tariffs, suggesting that clarity on the legal challenge to his trade policy may take at least another month. Domestically, FII selling continues unabated, the Indian rupee is hovering near record lows, and Q3 earnings disappointed, with index heavyweights HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank missing estimates.

On the daily chart, prices have slipped below the November swing low and have also closed below the golden retracement level of 61.8 per cent of the entire upmove from the September swing low near 24,600. The Nifty is now just 0.47 per cent above the 200-day moving average and has closed below the 150-day exponential moving average as well. Volumes, though lower than the previous session, remained above average. The index registered one of its sharper single-day declines in recent times, falling 1.38 per cent. With prices trading below all key averages except the 200 DMA, the trend has clearly turned bearish. The index has already achieved nearly 50 per cent of the projected target from the double top breakdown.

Market internals have weakened further, with close to 60 per cent of Nifty 50 constituents trading below their 100-day moving averages. This indicates that frontline stocks are now participating in the broader market weakness. Distribution days have risen to six, and with the index trading below the 50 DMA, the market structure has shifted to an uptrend under pressure, pointing to increased institutional selling.

Momentum indicators continue to deteriorate. The RSI has slipped into the oversold zone, while the MACD reflects strong bearish momentum. Market breadth remains extremely weak, highlighting widespread selling pressure. Midcap and smallcap indices have borne the brunt of the decline, each falling over 2 per cent on Tuesday. The index has slipped back below its prior consolidation range. Having broken below the 61.8 per cent retracement and achieved half of the double top target, the next meaningful support is seen around 25,000.

Aggressive long positions should be avoided unless the index manages to close above the previous day’s high. On the upside, the 25,600–25,700 zone is likely to act as a strong resistance. With the Union Budget approaching, geopolitical risks elevated and the earnings season still in play, volatility is expected to remain high. Avoid leveraged positions and participate selectively, with strict stop-loss discipline in place.

STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS
HINDUSTAN COPPER LTD. ........................ BUY ...................... CMP ₹531.65
BSE Code : 513599
Target 1 .... ₹600 
Target 2 ..... ₹622 
Stoploss....₹508 (CLS)

Hindustan Copper Limited, established in 1967 and domiciled in India, is a Central Public Sector Undertaking under the administrative control of the Ministry of Mines, Government of India. The company’s principal activities include exploration, exploitation and mining of copper ore, including mineral beneficiation, and it also has facilities for SMElting and refining. Hindustan Copper is primarily engaged in mining and processing copper ore into Metal-In-Concentrate (MIC), which is reported as a single segment in line with Ind AS 108 on operating segments.

Recently, the stock touched its 52-week high and subsequently witnessed a correction in line with the broader market. With this decline, the stock is now approaching its 20-DMA, which is an important short-term support level.

In addition, the stock meets most CASNLM criteria. It has an EPS Rank of 87, which is a good score reflecting earnings consistency; an RS Rating of 96, which is strong and indicates outperformance versus the broader market; Buyer Demand at A+, reflecting healthy accumulation; and a Group Rank of 4, placing it within a strong industry group, Mining-Metal Ores. The Master Score of B is also close to the top band. The 14-period daily RSI has shifted into a super-bullish range, which supports a constructive view. Buy the stock with a stop loss at ₹508, for a target range of ₹600– ₹622.

INFOSYS LTD. ................................. BUY ............................ CMP ₹1,657.70
BSE Code : 500209
Target 1 ...... ₹1,760 
Target 2 ..... ₹1,800 
Stoploss.....₹1,578 (CLS)

I nfosys is a global leader in next-generation digital services and consulting, enabling clients across 63 countries to execute their digital transformation agendas. With over four decades of experience in managing enterprise-scale technology systems and operations, Infosys supports clients as they adopt cloud and AI-led architectures. Its approach focuses on an AI-first core, agile digital delivery at scale, and continuous improvement through always-on learning, supported by the transfer of digital skills, expertise and ideas from its innovation ecosystem.

From a technical standpoint, the stock opened with a gap-up move after its Q3 FY26 earnings and has since been consolidating within the range of the post-earnings bullish candle, offering a favourable entry framework. The stock aligns with several CASNLM characteristics, including an RS Rating of 81, which is good and indicates relative outperformance, and Buyer Demand at A, signalling sustained interest. The daily MACD has also triggered a bullish crossover, reinforcing the positive bias. Buy the stock with a stop loss at ₹1,578, for a target range of ₹1,760–₹1,800.

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