NIFTY Index Chart Analysis

Over the past week or so, multiple headline events shaped market sentiment, beginning with the India-EU trade deal and then the Union Budget 2026 outcome, where the STT hike unsettled participants. As a result, the Nifty 50 posted its widest single day range of about 869 points in over a year. The next surprise, a positive one, came in the form of the India-U.S. trade deal.[EasyDNNnews:PaidContentStart]

The India U.S. agreement led to a cut in the levy on Indian goods to 18 per cent from 25 per cent. In addition, the extra 25 per cent punitive duty linked to purchases of Russian oil was scrapped, in exchange for India halting Russian oil purchases. The long-awaited deal improved sentiment on D Street, and the index logged gains of over 2.5 per cent on Tuesday. Meanwhile, India VIX, the volatility gauge, dropped sharply by 7 per cent and closed below the 13 level.

After the India U.S. trade deal was finalised, the Nifty 50 opened near its previous all-time high. It touched an Intraday high of 26,341, but soon trimmed gains and slipped to an intraday low of 25,641, with this low formed within the first hour of trade. For the rest of the session, the index largely traded within that first hour range. With this move, the index has tested the 26,310 to 26,370 zone for the fifth time, but failed to sustain above it. The opening hour also saw a surge in volumes. Importantly, the index closed below the 50 DMA, but remained above the 20, 100 and 200 DMAs. The last three days’ range of 1,769.45 points is the highest seen in the last couple of years.

With the Nifty repeatedly rejecting the 26,300 zone, forming a fresh all time high and breaking out of the extended consolidation has become a tough task. This could keep the index in a consolidation phase for a few more sessions. As long as the index trades below 26,372, a clear trending phase of the bull market may remain elusive. The market is also awaiting the fine print on the trade deal and its implications. Notably, on Tuesday, a majority of stocks closed well below their opening levels.

For now, the 20 DMA at 25,498 and the 50 DMA at 25,822 remain key levels to track in the short term. A sustained move and weekly close above 25,822 could open the path towards the 25,960 to 26,000 resistance zone. On the downside, a break below 25,498 could open the gates for a deeper correction towards 24,990. Volatility may stay elevated over the next couple of trading sessions.

On momentum indicators, the 14-period daily RSI is now above 50, and on the weekly time frame it has also moved above 50. Importantly, the weekly RSI did not slip below the 40 mark during the recent sell off. The MACD has generated a fresh bullish signal.

For the broader indices, the Nifty Midcap 100 faces a key resistance in the 59,950 to 60,000 zone, while the Nifty Smallcap 100 has a key resistance near 17,370. It is important for both to sustain above these levels to build momentum. Going ahead, maintain a positive to neutral bias as long as these indices trade between their 20 and 50 DMAs. Traders should stay stock specific and follow a thematic approach to capture outperformance.

STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS
SHARDA CROPCHEM LTD ....................... BUY ...................... CMP ₹1,111.70
BSE Code : 538666
Target 1 .... ₹1,330 
Target 2 ..... ₹1,400 
Stoploss....₹978 (CLS)

S harda Cropchem Limited (SCL) is a fast-growing global agrochemicals company with a strong position in the crop protection chemicals industry. Its vast and expanding library of dossiers and IPRs provides a solid foundation for growth in the global marketplace, especially in advanced markets such as Europe, North America, and Latin America. This enables the company to operate globally across a wide range of formulations and active ingredients. The company’s deep domain knowledge and extensive experience provide a meaningful competitive edge, enabling it to expand its business in existing markets as well as new geographies.

On the weekly time frame, the stock is forming a cup-like pattern with a depth of 36 per cent, and the cup has taken 27 weeks to form. The stock is currently trading around 5 per cent below its crucial pivot point. Interestingly, volumes have spiked sharply in recent sessions, indicating the stock may be on the verge of breaking out of the cup pattern. The stock meets most CANSLIM characteristics, with an EPS Rank of 82, which is a good score and indicates consistency in earnings; an RS Rating of 94, which is strong and indicates outperformance versus other stocks; Buyer Demand at A+, which is evident from recent accumulation; and a Master Score of B, which is close to the top bracket. The RSI on both the weekly and daily time frames remains in bullish territory. Considering these factors, buy this stock with a stop loss of ₹978 and a target of ₹1,330 to ₹1,400.

POWER GRID CORPORATION OF INDIA LTD ............. BUY ......... CMP ₹283.25
BSE Code : 500209
Target 1 ...... ₹303
Target 2 ..... ₹310 
Stoploss.....₹265 (CLS)

Power Grid Corporation of India Limited is a Maharatna CPSU and India’s largest electric power transmission company. The Government of India held 51.34 per cent of the company’s shares as of September 30, 2025. PGCIL is also executing several strategically important projects assigned by the Government of India on a nomination basis.

On the weekly time frame, the stock has formed its most bullish candle in nearly two years, with a few trading sessions still remaining for the weekly close. Notably, this sizable bullish candle has formed around a horizontal support line, indicating strong buying emerging from a crucial demand zone. On the daily chart, the stock is trading above the 20, 50, and 100 DMAs and is now approaching the long-term 200 DMA. Sustaining above the 200 DMA would be a positive technical development. Above-average volumes over the last couple of sessions indicate stronger participation in the prevailing trend. The daily MACD is in an uptrend and is rebounding after taking support at its nine-period average, which supports a positive bias. The 14-period daily RSI has moved above the 60 mark for the first time in almost 10 months. With these factors pointing to a bullish outlook, we recommend buying this stock with a stop loss of ₹265 and a target of ₹303 to ₹310.

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