NIFTY Index Chart Analysis

The Nifty 50 logged its second straight session of over 1 per cent decline on Monday, March 2, as escalating tensions in the Middle East rattled sentiment. The flare-up pushed crude oil prices higher— an immediate headwind for India, which remains a net importer of oil. Adding to the pressure, the rupee slid to a fresh low as the conflict showed no clear signs of cooling.[EasyDNNnews:PaidContentStart]

From a technical standpoint, the index had already signalled weakness on Friday by breaking below the lower end of the trading range it had held since February 12, 2026—between 25,900 and 25,300. Following the breakdown of this 600-point band, the Nifty opened below its long-term 200-day moving average (200-DMA) but found support near the lower boundary of a rectangle pattern.

trading range it had held since February 12, 2026—between 25,900 and 25,300. Following the breakdown of this 600-point band, the Nifty opened below its long-term 200-day moving average (200-DMA) but found support near the lower boundary of a rectangle pattern.March 2, 2026, the index bounced off the rectangle’s support line. The key question now is whether this support holds or gives way in the sessions ahead.

A decisive break below the 24,570 level could trigger a deeper decline, with downside targets seen near 24,330 initially, followed by 23,900 over the medium term. If there is no followthrough selling, the index may remain range-bound within the rectangle, with the first meaningful hurdle placed at the March 2 gap zone of 24,989–25,141. A sustained move above this supply area could set the stage for a recovery towards 25,300–25,350.

On the daily timeframe, the index is trading below its 20-, 50-, 100- and 200-DMAs. The 20-, 50- and 100-DMAs are sloping lower, while the 200-DMA has flattened—often a sign of weakening long-term trend strength. The MACD histogram points to strengthening bearish momentum. The -DI has moved above its prior swing high, remains above 40, and is still rising, while the +DI continues to trend lower— reinforcing the view that bears have the upper hand. Although the ADX is still below 20, it is rising; a move above 25, especially alongside a firm -DI, would further strengthen the bearish case by indicating a transition from rangebound action to a more directional downtrend.

As of March 2, the Nifty is about 1.90 per cent below its 200-DMA and has decisively closed below the 50-week average. The distribution day count has risen to five, underscoring sustained selling pressure and keeping the index firmly in the bears’ grasp.

Overall, 24,570 remains the line in the sand, aligned with the rectangle’s support. A clean break below this level would have clear bearish implications for the index. For the coming fortnight, the more effective approach is to stay measured, nimble, and guided by key levels—rather than trying to front-run a directional move before the market confirms it.

STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS
APAR INDUSTRIES LTD ....................... BUY ...................... CMP ₹10,682.35
BSE Code : 532259
Target 1 .... ₹11,400 
Target 2 ..... ₹11,800 
Stoploss....₹9,180 (CLS)

Apar Industries Limited is a global leader in electrical and metallurgical engineering. Operating in over 140 countries, it specialises in high-performance products such as conductors, cables, specialty oils, polymers, and lubricants. Apar’s extensive manufacturing footprint spans Maharashtra, Gujarat, Odisha, and Dadra & Nagar Haveli in India, along with facilities in Dubai and Southeast Asia. The company integrates advanced technology and international ISO standards across its state-of-the-art facilities, supporting consistent, high-quality production.

Technically, the stock recently broke out from a cup-base formation, clearing a pivot level of ₹9,900 after roughly 30 weeks of consolidation, signalling improving strength. More recently, amid the broader market correction, the stock has retested its breakout level. From a William O’Neil methodology perspective, the stock has an EPS Rank of 90, indicating strong earnings consistency; an RS Rating of 85, reflecting outperformance versus peers; Buyer Demand of B, supported by recent accumulation; a Group Rank of 33, placing it in a strong industry group (ElectricalPower/Equipmt); and a Master Score of B, which is near the top tier.

From a trading setup standpoint, a stop-loss near ₹9,180 and a potential target zone of ₹11,400–₹11,800 can be considered.

MANGALORE REFINERY AND PETROCHEMICALS LTD ...... BUY .... CMP ₹187.95
BSE Code : 500109
Target 1 ...... ₹208 
Target 2 ..... ₹220 
Stoploss.....₹181 (CLS)

Mangalore Refinery & Petrochemicals Ltd. (MRPL) is a leading Indian refinery engaged in refining crude oil and producing a wide range of petroleum products. The company also manufactures petrochemicals and serves both domestic and international markets with fuel and chemical products. Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Limited (ONGC) acquired a 51 per cent stake in MRPL in March 2003 and later increased its holding to around 72 per cent. Following the change in management, capital infusion from ONGC, and an upturn in the refining margin cycle, MRPL delivered a financial turnaround in the years that followed.

On the technical front, MRPL broke out of an 11-week cup pattern in early February and moved higher. Recently, the stock has retested the cup breakout level, which may offer an attractive entry zone. From a William O’Neil methodology perspective, the stock has an EPS Rank of 76 and an RS Rating of 92, indicating strong outperformance versus the broader market. Buyer Demand is rated A+, reflecting robust buying interest, while the Group Rank of 8 places it in a strong industry group (Oil & Gas–Refining/ Marketing). The Master Score of B is also close to the top tier.

Considering the above factors, the stock can be considered with a stop-loss at ₹181 and a potential target range of ₹208–₹220.

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