NIFTY Index Chart Analysis

The U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict has now entered its third week, with no visible signs of de-escalation. Crude oil prices have remained firm amid supply concerns arising from the conflict. At the same time, the rupee has slipped to a fresh low due to persistent foreign fund outflows triggered by geopolitical uncertainty. Against this backdrop, the Nifty 50 recorded its sharpest weekly decline since June 2022 and fell to nearly an 11-month low.[EasyDNNnews:PaidContentStart]

From a technical perspective, the Nifty 50 has entered a vulnerable phase. The index has decisively breached its 100-week moving average, placed at 24,448, which had earlier acted as a strong intermediate support since the post-COVID recovery. This breakdown has weakened the medium-term structure and shifted the bias to the downside, unless the index quickly reclaims this level. On the daily chart, the index is now trading below all its key short-, medium-, and long-term moving averages. More importantly, the short-term moving average, the 50-DMA, has crossed below the long-term moving average, the 200-DMA, a formation known in technical parlance as a Death Cross. This is a negative signal for the index.

The index has corrected nearly 13 per cent from the all-time high recorded earlier this year and, in the process, has partially filled the upside gap formed on April 15, 2025. On the daily chart, the price action on March 16, 2026, led to the formation of a sizeable bullish candle with a long lower shadow and a small upper shadow. The long lower shadow, formed near the April 15, 2025 gap area, indicates buying interest emerging from an important support zone, as the Nifty 50 rebounded nearly 450 points from the day’s low to close above 23,400.

Going ahead, the index is likely to encounter strong resistance in the downside gap area of March 13, which remains open in the 23,492-23,556 zone. If the Nifty manages to sustain above this band on weekly expiry, the pullback may extend towards 23,754, which coincides with the 23.6 per cent Fibonacci retracement of the decline from the all-time high to the recent low of 22,955.

The key question now is whether follow-up buying will emerge, enabling the index to sustain above the downside gap area of Friday, March 13. A sustained move above this zone is necessary to stabilise sentiment. Failing that, the index may remain exposed to further corrective pressure. On the downside, 23,250 is the immediate support, followed by Monday’s low of 22,955, which remains a crucial support level.

The weekly MACD continues to trade below its signal line and remains in negative territory, indicating that bearish momentum is still in play. A study of the weekly chart shows that the index has slipped out of a broad consolidation zone that had formed near the peak levels and has subsequently failed to sustain above both the 50-week and 100-week moving averages. The Nifty has also ended below the lower Bollinger Band. While a short-term pullback within the band cannot be ruled out, the broader technical setup continues to appear weak.

In light of the breakdown of important support levels, market participants should maintain a cautious and defensive stance. Aggressive fresh buying should be avoided until the index displays convincing signs of stability above the recently violated support zones. Traders should prioritise capital protection, follow disciplined stoplosses, and remain focused on stockspecific opportunities rather than taking aggressive index-based bets. Until volatility eases and the Nifty regain the 100-week moving average, risk control and selective participation are likely to remain the most prudent strategy for the next fortnight.

STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS
LINDE INDIA LIMITED .......................... BUY ......................... CMP ₹7,168.65
BSE Code : 523457
Target 1 .... ₹7,890 
Target 2 ..... ₹8,040 
Stoploss....₹6,510 (CLS)

Linde India Limited has had a well-established presence in India since 1935 and has grown into one of the leading gases and engineering companies in the country. It offers one of the most comprehensive portfolios of industrial, specialty, and medical gases, along with one of the largest direct sales and distribution networks in India, serving a wide range of industry segments.

Recently, the stock touched a nine-month high, and with this move, it is now trading above its key short-term and long-term moving averages. Interestingly, the stock is on the verge of a Golden Cross formation, which means the short-term moving average, i.e., the 50-DMA, is about to cross above the 200-DMA, the longer-term moving average. This is considered a positive signal for the stock.

The stock is meeting most of the CANSLIM characteristics. It has an EPS Rank of 84, which is a good score indicating consistency in earnings, and an RS Rating of 84, which is also good and reflects outperformance compared with other stocks. Buyer Demand is rated A-, which is evident from the recent demand for the stock. A Group Rank of 20 indicates that it belongs to the strong Chemicals-Basic industry group, while a Master Score of B suggests that it is close to being among the best. The 14-period daily RSI has entered the bullish zone, and the MACD has given a bullish crossover, both of which are positive for the stock. Considering the above factors, we recommend buying the stock with a stop-loss at ₹6,510 and a target price of ₹7,890 to ₹8,040.

AJANTA PHARMA LTD. ........................... BUY ........................ CMP ₹2,952.10
BSE Code : 532331
Target 1 ...... ₹3,330
Target 2 ..... ₹3,370 
Stoploss.....₹2,830 (CLS)

Ajanta Pharma is a global specialty pharmaceutical company focused on developing, manufacturing, and marketing high-quality finished dosages. The company has built a strong presence in high-growth specialty segments, including cardiology, dermatology, ophthalmology, and pain management. The stock has broken out of a seven-week cup base pattern. It is meeting most of the CANSLIM characteristics. The stock has an EPS Rank of 74, which is a fair score but indicates that earnings need improvement, and an RS Rating of 85, which is good and reflects outperformance compared with other stocks. Buyer Demand is rated A-, which is evident from the recent demand for the stock. A Group Rank of 29 indicates that it belongs to the strong Medical-Generic Drugs industry group, while a Master Score of B suggests that it is close to being among the best. The weekly 14-period RSI is in bullish territory. The weekly MACD remains in a strong uptrend and is seen diverging from its nine-period average, thereby validating the positive bias. Considering the above factors, we recommend buying this stock with a stop-loss at ₹2,830 and an upside target of ₹3,330 to ₹3,370.

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