NIFTY Index Chart Analysis

The Nifty 50 remained under sustained pressure through the fortnight, reflecting a clear downward bias and ending March 2026 on a weak note. In fact, it was the worst March for the index since the Covid period, with the Nifty falling 11.30 per cent during the month.[EasyDNNnews:PaidContentStart]

India VIX, which had already risen sharply in recent weeks, extended its upmove and more than doubled in March, signalling heightened uncertainty and nervousness in the market.

With March coming to an end, the index has also registered both a monthly and quarterly close, and both carry negative technical implications. The monthly candle is among the most bearish formations seen since the Covid phase. On the quarterly chart, the structure resembles a tweezer top, a pattern that often appears near important turning points.

From a technical perspective, the Nifty has slipped below key support levels, pointing to a weakening near-term trend. The index is now trading below its 50-week, 100-week and 150-week moving averages, and is moving closer to a crucial long-term support zone around the 200-week moving average. That support zone is especially important because the 200-week moving average, placed at 21,741, almost coincides with the April 2025 low of 21,744. This makes the 21,740–21,745 band a key long-term support area. A monthly close below this region would amount to a breakdown below the neckline of a double-top pattern, opening the door for a further decline towards the 21,200–21,100 zone.

A double-top on the monthly chart is a major bearish reversal pattern that can indicate a broader shift in trend. It usually takes the shape of an “M” and forms when the index fails twice to sustain above a similar peak zone. The pattern is confirmed when the price breaks below the neckline.

The broader monthly setup remains weak. March has produced the most bearish monthly candle since the Covid phase, while the latest decline has extended the losing streak to four consecutive months. The last time the Nifty hit an all-time high of 26,227.35 in September 2024, it went on to decline for five straight months, correcting around 15 per cent during that phase. This time too, the index has already fallen 15.25 per cent over the last four months, almost matching that earlier correction in price terms. The only support for the bulls, at least from a historical perspective, is seasonality: April has generally been one of the stronger months for the index, with average returns of 2.38 per cent since 2009.

On the daily chart, both short-term and long-term moving averages remain firmly in a downtrend. Bollinger Bands are also sloping lower, with the lower band continuing to widen, a sign that weakness remains entrenched. The Nifty 50 is currently 9.87 per cent below its 50-day moving average and 11.49 per cent below its 200-day moving average, indicating that the market is stretched on the downside.

Momentum indicators continue to reflect a bearish undertone across time frames. Although a positive divergence is visible on the daily RSI, it will carry weight only if the indicator moves back above the 40 mark. The MACD too is at an extreme level, suggesting that the current trend is overstretched. Even so, as long as the index continues to form lower lows on the daily chart, fresh long positions should be avoided. A decisive close above the previous day’s high would be the first sign of a meaningful bounce.

On the upside, the 22,720–22,850 zone is likely to act as the immediate resistance band. If the index manages to sustain above this hurdle, it could attempt a medium-term recovery towards the 23,400–23,500 zone.

STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS
AVENUE SUPERMARTS LTD. .................... BUY ..................... CMP ₹3,961.25
BSE Code : 540376
Target 1 .... ₹4,950 
Target 2 ..... ₹5,050 
Stoploss....₹3,580 (CLS)

Avenue Supermarts operates in India’s organised food and grocery retail segment through its DMart chain of stores. The company was incorporated in 2000. In 2002, Mr Radha Kishan Damani, along with his family members, launched the first DMart supermarket in Mumbai, Maharashtra, with the objective of offering customers a one-stop shopping destination for their everyday needs at competitive prices and with the right product assortment. The company offers a wide range of products across food, non-food (FMCG), general merchandise, and apparel categories.

The stock touched a high of ₹5,484.85 in September 2024 and then corrected nearly 39 per cent to hit a low of ₹3,340 in March 2025. From this low, the stock staged a pullback towards ₹4,949.50. However, it failed to sustain at higher levels and once again corrected towards the ₹3,529 zone, resulting in the formation of a double-bottom-like pattern. The stock has formed back-to-back bullish-bodied candles on the monthly chart. On the monthly timeframe, the 14-period RSI has moved above its 9-period average, which is a positive sign. On the daily timeframe, volumes have surged, while the MACD line has moved above both the zero line and the signal line.

Considering the above factors, we recommend buying this stock with a stop loss at ₹3,580 for a target of ₹4,950–5,050.

EMCURE PHARMACEUTICALS LTD. .............. BUY ................... CMP ₹1,595.95
BSE Code : 544210
Target 1 ...... ₹1,740 
Target 2 ..... ₹1,840 
Stoploss.....₹1,550 (CLS)

Emcure Pharmaceuticals develops, manufactures, and markets a broad portfolio of pharmaceutical and biopharmaceutical products, including complex generics, biosimilars, and injectables. The company has a presence in over 70 countries and focuses on a mix of chronic and acute therapies, with key segments including cardiology, oncology, gynaecology/women’s health, HIV antivirals, nephrology, and diabetes care.

Recently, the stock has broken out of a nine-week flat-base pattern and closed at a new lifetime high. It has also broken out of a 45-day consolidation phase. Above-average volumes over the last two days indicate increased buying interest. Its Relative Strength Line is at a new high, signalling outperformance compared to the broader market. The stock is trading above all key moving averages, with the 200 DMA, 150 DMA, and 50 DMA all trending upward. The Bollinger Bands have started to expand, while the MACD has given a fresh bullish signal. The RSI has shifted into the bullish zone, and the Stochastic RSI also remains bullish. The Elder Impulse System has formed a strong bullish bar, while the Directional Movement Index indicates firm bullish control. In short, the stock has broken out of a bullish pattern. On the upside, it can test levels of ₹1,740–1,840. Maintain a stop loss at ₹1,550.

[EasyDNNnews:PaidContentEnd] [EasyDNNnews:UnPaidContentStart]

[EasyDNNnews:UnPaidContentEnd]