NIFTY Index Chart Analysis

The Nifty 50 posted its sharpest weekly gain in more than five years, snapping a six-week losing streak. The rally was driven largely by a two-week ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran, which cooled crude oil prices and lifted risk appetite across equity markets. However, sentiment turned cautious again over the weekend after the two sides failed to reach a peace agreement despite hours of talks, leading to a sharp gap-down opening on Monday.[EasyDNNnews:PaidContentStart]

Despite the weak start, the index staged a solid Intraday recovery, bouncing nearly 300 points from the day’s low to close above the 23,800 mark. ICICI Bank, HDFC Life and NTPC were among the key contributors to the rebound. Volumes stayed above average and were stronger over the last three sessions, which points to active participation. Even so, the fact that Nifty closed below the previous day’s low remains a mild negative. On the positive side, the index found support near the 8-day EMA and managed to recover from there.

What stands out is that the index has met several conditions that typically signal the end of a corrective phase. It has closed above last week’s high, sustained above its short-term moving average, and retraced a 13-session decline in just four sessions. The break in the earlier pattern of lower highs and lower lows on the daily chart further suggests that the market structure has improved meaningfully.

From here, the immediate resistance is placed at last week’s high of 24,075. A sustained move above this level could open the door for a rally towards 24,303-24,414, which marks the March 10 high and also coincides with the downside gap area of March 9, 2026. On the downside, the 8-day EMA at 23,553 remains the key support to watch. If the index fails to hold above this level, it could slip towards the April 8, 2026 upside gap zone and potentially retest 23,153 over the short to medium term.

From a pattern perspective, Nifty has attempted a rebound after testing the lower Bollinger Band and has remained comfortably above its 200-week moving average. That keeps the broader longterm structure intact for now. However, the index is still trading below an important medium-term resistance zone, which means this rebound still needs follow-through before it can be treated as the start of a fresh uptrend. For now, it is an encouraging recovery, but not yet a full trend reversal.

Put simply, the market has bounced back sharply, but it has not yet reclaimed the zone that would confirm a complete restoration of trend strength. As long as Nifty remains below the 24,414-25,170 band, where the 200-day moving average is also placed, intermittent profitbooking and resistance-led hesitation cannot be ruled out. A decisive move above this zone would strengthen the technical setup considerably. Until then, any failure to hold near support levels could bring volatility back into the picture.

Momentum indicators also suggest that the recovery, while strong, is still incomplete. The 14-period daily RSI has moved into neutral territory, while the weekly RSI has turned up from lower levels but remains below the 50 mark. This shows improving momentum, though not a fully bullish setup yet. The weekly MACD is still below its signal line and remains in negative territory, indicating that the broader momentum trend has not fully reversed despite the recent rebound.

Over the coming fortnight, market direction is likely to be influenced by both geopolitical developments and the onset of the earnings season. In that environment, stock-specific action is likely to dominate. Fresh buying should remain selective and focused on technically strong names that are either improving in structure or showing relative strength against the broader market. Chasing every rise may not be the best approach, especially with the index nearing overhead resistance, the weekly chart still undergoing repair, and geopolitical uncertainty continuing to hang over sentiment.

STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS
SONA BLW PRECISION FORGINGS LTD. ............. BUY .............. CMP ₹569.20
BSE Code : 543300
Target 1 .... ₹640 
Target 2 ..... ₹675 
Stoploss....₹516 (CLS)

S ona BLW Precision Forgings Limited (Sona Comstar) is one of the world’s leading mobility technology companies. It has built a strong global presence through its manufacturing and assembly facilities, R&D centres, and engineering capability centres spread across India, the USA, Serbia, Mexico, and China. The company designs, manufactures, and supplies highly engineered, mission-critical systems and components to mobility OEMs. It is also a leading supplier of driveline and traction motor solutions to the fast-growing global electric vehicle market. In addition, the company has a presence in the Railway segment through its brake systems, couplers, and suspension systems. Its business remains well diversified across geographies, products, vehicle segments, and customers.

On the technical front, the stock has broken out of an almost 11-month horizontal trendline on the daily chart. This breakout is supported by above-average volumes and the formation of a sizeable bullish candle, which adds strength to the move. Interestingly, the Relative Strength (RS) Rating stands at 90, indicating clear outperformance compared to most other stocks. The 14-period daily RSI has crossed the 60 mark for the first time since late February and continues to move higher. The daily MACD also remains in a strong uptrend and is diverging from its nine-period average, which further supports the positive bias. In short, the stock has delivered a convincing breakout backed by strong volume and a high RS Rating of 90. Hence, we recommend buying the stock for targets of ₹640 and ₹675, with a stop loss at ₹516.

MULTI COMMODITY EXCHANGE OF INDIA LTD. .......... BUY ....... CMP ₹2,766.45
BSE Code : 534091
Target 1 ...... ₹2,980 |
Target 2 ..... ₹3,040 |
Stoploss.....₹2,620 (CLS)

Multi Commodity Exchange of India Limited (MCX) is India’s largest exchange in the commodity derivatives segment. It is also the country’s first exchange to introduce commodity options and futures on bullion, base metals, and energy indices. MCX operates under the regulatory framework of the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) and holds a dominant position in the domestic commodity derivatives market.

Technically, the stock has broken out of an 11-week ascending triangle pattern and closed at a fresh lifetime high. Its Relative Strength line has also moved to a new high, reflecting strong market leadership. Higher volumes further validate the breakout. The stock is trading well above all key moving averages and is currently placed 11.79 per cent above its 50-day moving average. Bollinger Bands have started expanding, signalling rising momentum and the possibility of further price movement. The weekly MACD has generated a fresh bullish signal, while the RSI remains in a strong bullish zone across multiple time frames. In addition, the KST indicator has also flashed a fresh bullish signal. The Stochastic RSI continues to remain positive, and the Elder Impulse System has formed a strong bullish bar. Overall, the technical setup remains firmly positive. The stock can test the ₹2,980–₹3,040 zone, with a stop loss at ₹2,620.

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