NIFTY Index Chart Analysis

The last fortnight proved favourable for Indian equity benchmarks, supported by a mix of encouraging domestic and global factors. Sentiment improved on the back of lower crude oil prices, a steady rupee, RBI Governor’s comments that it was premature to discuss interest rate hikes, and the central Bank’s recent measures to attract foreign flows into debt instruments. Expectations of aggressive US Fed rate hikes also moderated, while the southwest monsoon staged a strong recovery across large parts of India, reducing the country’s cumulative rainfall deficit to 19per cent after several weeks of weak precipitation. The decline in India VIX below the 12 mark further reflected easing market nervousness.

Against this backdrop, the Nifty 50 extended its winning streak for the fourth consecutive week last week. The index broke out of the trading range that had been in place since mid-June and reclaimed its important 200-DEMA after nearly four months at the start of the week. On an Intraday basis, it also moved above the 24,500 mark. However, the index failed to sustain at higher levels as the resistance zone came into play, leading to a pullback below the 200-DEMA. Despite this, the index continues to trade above its 20-DMA, 50-DMA and 100-DMA. More importantly, the 20-DMA has crossed above the 50-DMA, which remains a positive short-term signal.

The resistance zone of 24,482–24,530 has emerged as an important hurdle for the Nifty 50. The formation of a reasonably sized bearish candle near this zone suggests that the index may enter a phase of consolidation or witness a countertrend move. During this phase, the opening gap area of Friday, July 03, placed between 24,198 and 24,252, will be crucial. The level of 24,179, which marks the 50 per cent retracement of the upmove from the June 30 low to the July 07, 2026 high, also becomes an important support to watch.

As long as the July 03 gap area remains protected, the ongoing decline should be viewed as a counter-trend consolidation rather than a reversal. In such a setup, buying on dips may continue to remain the preferred strategy. On the upside, the 24,482–24,530 zone is likely to act as stiff resistance. A sustained move above this band could open the way for a rise towards 24,600, which was the swing high recorded on April 21, 2026. However, if the index fails to hold the mentioned support zone, it could slip further towards the 20-DMA, currently placed around 23,921.

Momentum indicators still support the broader positive structure. The 14-period daily RSI continues to trade above the 60 mark, indicating that momentum has not weakened meaningfully. The MACD, too, does not show any major loss of strength at this stage.

Overall, as long as the Nifty 50 holds the July 03 opening gap area of 24,198–24,252, the current move should be treated as a countertrend consolidation within a broader positive setup. An interesting point to note is that over the last one month, the Nifty 50 has relatively outperformed both the KOSPI and the Nasdaq Composite Index. Going ahead, the earnings season will take centre stage. Tata Consultancy Services is scheduled to report its results on Thursday, July 09, and its management commentary could set the tone for IT stocks as well as influence near-term market sentiment. For the coming fortnight, traders should continue to follow a selective, stockspecific approach with strict risk management. Protecting capital, avoiding excessive leverage and waiting for favourable risk-reward opportunities should remain the key focus.

STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS

Adani ENERGY SOLUTIONS LTD. ................ BUY ................... CMP ₹1,650.80
BSE Code : 539254
Target 1 .... ₹1,756 
Target 2 ..... ₹1,800 
Stoploss....₹1,560 (CLS)

Adani Energy Solutions Ltd, part of the Adani portfolio, has built a wide presence across India’s energy value chain, covering power transmission, distribution, smart metering and cooling solutions. The company is India’s largest private power transmission player. On the technical front, the stock has broken out of a five-week tight consolidation zone, indicating a shift in momentum. It has successfully moved into Stage 2 and registered a second base breakout. The stock has also retraced 23.6 per cent of its earlier sharp decline and managed to sustain this recovery over the past two weeks. Volumes have remained elevated for the last three weeks, pointing to renewed buying interest. The Relative Strength line has moved to a fresh high, reflecting outperformance against the broader market. The stock is trading comfortably above all key moving averages, while the 10-week average acted as support during the consolidation phase.

Momentum indicators are also supportive. Bollinger Bands have started expanding across time frames, the moving average ribbon remains in an uptrend, MACD has generated a fresh bullish signal, and RSI has entered the bullish zone. KST and Stochastic RSI are also positive, while the Elder Impulse system has formed a strong bullish bar. Overall, AESL has registered a bullish breakout. The stock may test ₹1,756, followed by ₹1,800. A stop loss can be maintained at ₹1,560.

TITAN COMPANY LTD. ............................. BUY ...................... CMP ₹4,602.65
BSE Code : 500114
Target 1 ...... ₹4,870 
Target 2 ..... ₹4,940 
Stoploss.....₹4,410 (CLS)

Titan Company is one of India’s leading lifestyle businesses, with strong leadership across jewellery, watches and eyewear. Over the years, the company has expanded beyond its core categories into wearables, Indian dress wear, fragrances and fashion accessories.

The stock has broken out of a nine-week cup pattern and closed at a new all-time high. Tuesday’s strong volume adds credibility to the breakout, suggesting active participation from buyers. The Relative Strength line has also reached a new high, showing that Titan continues to outperform the broader market. The stock is trading above all key moving averages and remains structurally strong. Bollinger Bands are expanding across time frames, pointing to a fresh volatility expansion after consolidation. It is currently trading 8.30 per cent above its 50-DMA, reflecting firm upward momentum. Momentum indicators remain favourable. The weekly MACD has given a fresh bullish signal, while the weekly RSI has shifted into a strong bullish zone. KST and Stochastic RSI continue to remain positive, and the Elder Impulse system has formed a strong bullish bar.

In short, Titan has confirmed a bullish breakout with strong price and volume action. A move above ₹4,615 will be positive, and the stock can test ₹4,870 to ₹4,940. A stop loss can be maintained at ₹4,410.