Nifty Likely to Open Above 26,150; Defence Stock HAL to Remain in Focus After Tejas Incident

Indian equity markets are poised for a positive opening on Monday, November 24, 2025, supported by strong global cues. On Friday, November 21, Wall Street closed firmly in the green, with the Dow Jones gaining over 1 per cent. The rebound was triggered by comments from New York Fed President John Williams, who indicated that additional rate cuts remain a possibility, easing concerns created by the central Bank’s recent hawkish stance.

As of 7:21 AM, the GIFT Nifty was trading 79 points higher, holding above the 26,150 level and signalling a strong start for domestic markets.

Sentiment is also being boosted by several global developments. Optimism around a potential US–India trade agreement has resurfaced, with both nations reportedly moving closer to finalising a mutually beneficial deal. On Wall Street, Nvidia’s stellar earnings and upbeat outlook reignited enthusiasm for AI-related stocks, helping major indices rally. Meanwhile, crude oil prices have continued their steep slide, with futures falling below USD 58 per barrel after OPEC pointed to a comfortable supply environment. The decline serves as a favourable macro driver for India, given its dependence on imported crude.

Defence stocks, particularly HAL, may see heightened activity today following an unfortunate incident at the Dubai Air Show last week. A Tejas fighter jet of the Indian Air Force crashed during an aerial display, drawing attention at a time when India is accelerating its indigenous defence manufacturing programme. This event is likely to keep the defence segment in focus through the session.

Investors will closely watch India’s Q2 FY26 GDP data, set to be released by the National Statistics Office on November 28. The July–September quarter growth print will be an important indicator for market direction in the coming days.

On the institutional front, foreign investors were net sellers on Friday, offloading equities worth Rs 1,766.05 crore. Domestic institutional investors, however, continued their strong buying streak, absorbing the supply with net purchases of Rs 3,161.61 crore — marking their twenty-first consecutive session of inflows.

Friday’s session saw profit booking at higher levels, pulling domestic indices off fresh 52-week highs. The Nifty 50 declined 124 points (0.54 per cent) to close at 26,068.15, while the Sensex slipped 400 points (0.47 per cent) to end at 85,231.92. Both indices now sit roughly 0.8 per cent below their record levels. Volatility picked up, with India VIX rising over 10 per cent to close above 13.5. The broader markets witnessed sharper corrections, as the Nifty Midcap 100 and Nifty Smallcap 100 fell more than 1 per cent.

In the US, confidence returned after Fed President John Williams noted there is still “room for a further adjustment in the near term” to guide rates toward neutral levels. The CME FedWatch tool now places the probability of a 25 bps rate cut on December 10 at 72 per cent — a steep jump from 39 per cent just a day earlier.

Disclaimer: The article is for informational purposes only and not investment advice.