Nifty Likely to Open Above 26,200; Will It Hit a Fresh All-Time High Amid India and U.S. Trade Deal Buzz?

Indian equity benchmarks are gearing up for a buoyant opening on Thursday, with GIFT Nifty pointing to a gap-up start near 26,255, implying a gain of around 332 points or 1.28 per cent for the Nifty 50.

The upbeat mood follows a surge in optimism surrounding India–U.S. trade relations. A recent phone call between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and U.S. President Donald Trump has rekindled hopes of a landmark trade pact. Reports suggest that Washington could soon slash import tariffs on Indian goods to 15 per cent, a move that could dramatically enhance India’s export competitiveness and strengthen its trade balance.

However, despite this positive trigger, broader sentiment across Asia remains cautious — most regional markets were trading lower this morning. Overnight, U.S. equities ended in the red, weighed down by weakness in technology shares.

Data from October 21 (Friday) indicates continued participation from foreign investors. Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net buyers for the fifth straight session, picking up equities worth Rs 96.72 crore, reflecting sustained confidence in the Indian growth story. On the other hand, Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) turned net sellers, offloading shares worth Rs 607.1 crore during the Muhurat trading session, possibly to book profits after recent market gains.

The Indian markets ushered in Samvat 2082 on an encouraging note during the special Diwali Muhurat trading session. Both the Sensex and Nifty extended their winning streak to five consecutive sessions.

In the U.S., markets ended lower on Wednesday after a volatile session. The Nasdaq Composite fell 213.67 points (0.9%) to 22,740.40, the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 334.33 points (0.7%) to 46,590.41, and the S&P 500 declined 35.95 points (0.5%) to 6,699.40.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq was weighed down by Netflix (NFLX), which tumbled 10.1% to a five-month low after reporting disappointing Q3 earnings, citing a Tax dispute with Brazilian authorities.