Nifty, Sensex Likely to Open Positive; India-EU FTA Deal Announcement Expected Today

Pre-Market Update at 7:47 AM: The Indian stock market benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty 50, are expected to open higher on Tuesday after a sharp fall last week, supported by upbeat global market cues. Asian markets traded mixed, while the U.S. stock market ended higher overnight ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s policy meeting.

This week, participants will closely monitor key global and domestic triggers, including the India-U.S. trade deal, Union Budget 2026, U.S. Federal Reserve meeting, Q3 results, geopolitical developments over Greenland, foreign institutional investment flows, crude oil trends, rupee trajectory, Donald Trump’s tariff policies, and other macroeconomic indicators.

The Indian stock market was shut on Monday, January 26, 2026, due to Republic Day. On Friday, equity indices faced a steep sell-off as geopolitical uncertainty escalated and foreign capital outflows persisted. The Sensex fell 769.67 points, or 0.94 per cent, to close at 81,537.70, while the Nifty 50 declined 241.25 points, or 0.95 per cent, to settle at 25,048.65.

Asian equities traded mixed after U.S. President Donald Trump stated he would increase tariffs on South Korea. 

Gift Nifty was trading near the 25,160 level, reflecting a premium of almost 81 points over the previous close of Nifty futures, indicating a positive start for domestic equities.

U.S. equities extended gains on Monday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq advancing for the fourth straight session. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 313.69 points, or 0.64 per cent, to 49,412.40; the S&P 500 rose 34.62 points, or 0.50 per cent, to 6,950.23; and the Nasdaq Composite gained 100.11 points, or 0.43 per cent, to close at 23,601.36. Among major stocks, Nvidia fell 0.64 per cent, Apple climbed 2.97 per cent, Microsoft rose 0.93 per cent, AMD declined 3.22 per cent, and Tesla slipped 3.09 per cent.

Tariff sentiment turned positive after U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated that the U.S. could roll back the additional 25 per cent tariffs on India, stating there “could be a path” for removal. He added that India’s purchases of Russian oil have declined sharply following tariff measures imposed by the Donald Trump administration, raising hopes of easing trade tensions.

Meanwhile, India and the European Union concluded negotiations for a free trade agreement (FTA), with an official announcement expected today. The deal is aimed at strengthening economic integration and boosting bilateral trade and investment flows.

On the earnings front, Axis Bank reported a 3 per cent year-on-year rise in net profit to Rs 6,489.6 crore for Q3FY26. Net interest income (NII) grew 5 per cent YoY to Rs 14,286.4 crore. Asset quality improved sequentially, with gross NPA falling to 1.40 per cent from 1.46 per cent and net NPA declining to 0.42 per cent from 0.44 per cent quarter-on-quarter.

The U.S. dollar weakened to a four-month low and is down over 1 per cent for the year. The dollar index stood at 97.05 after touching 96.808, its lowest level in four months on Monday. The euro held at USD 1.1878, while sterling traded at USD 1.3678.

In commodities, precious metals saw sharp declines. Comex gold fell 1.16 per cent to USD 5,023.60 per ounce, while Comex silver plunged 6.41 per cent to USD 108.095 per ounce after hitting a record above USD 117.71 in the previous session.

For today, Sammaan Capital will remain on the F&O ban list.

Disclaimer: The article is for informational purposes only and not investment advice.