Pre-Market Update: Nifty 50 Set for 100-Point Gap-Up Start as Crude Oil Slumps

The Indian stock market is expected to open sharply higher on Monday, with the Sensex and Nifty 50 likely to witness a gap-up start after crude oil prices tumbled nearly 5 per cent over the weekend as geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran eased. Positive global cues from Asian markets and Wall Street are also expected to support investor sentiment.

At around 7:28 AM, the GIFT Nifty was trading near 23,943, indicating a gap-up opening of more than 100 points over the previous Nifty futures close.

The biggest trigger for the market remains the sharp fall in crude oil prices. Brent crude slipped more than 5 per cent to around USD 92 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude declined around 5 per cent to nearly USD 85 per barrel after Iran announced it would suspend attacks, provided the U.S. also maintained its pause in military action following nearly two weeks of conflict.

Although the U.S. has not launched fresh strikes since late Friday, uncertainty over the geopolitical situation remains. Iran has said it has paused retaliatory operations, while Yemen's Iran-backed Houthi rebels claimed to have targeted facilities linked to Saudi Aramco in the Red Sea port cities of Jizan and Yanbu. However, Saudi authorities and the state-owned oil producer have not confirmed these claims.

Investors will also closely track the ongoing Q1 FY27 earnings season, with around 68 companies scheduled to announce their April-June quarter results today. Key companies reporting earnings include Bharat Electronics, Coal India, Indus Towers, Coforge, Canara Bank and Tata Power.

Gold prices advanced more than 1 per cent on Monday as easing geopolitical tensions lowered crude oil prices, reducing inflation concerns and expectations of higher interest rates. Spot gold climbed 1.3 per cent to USD 4,103.99 per ounce, while U.S. gold futures for August delivery gained 0.9 per cent to USD 4,106.10 per ounce.

Derivative positioning indicates cautious sentiment despite expectations of a positive opening. The Put-Call Ratio (PCR) for the Nifty July series stands at 0.83. Significant put open interest addition was recorded at the 23,700 strike, while the highest put unwinding was seen at 23,900. Major put open interest is concentrated at the 23,000 and 23,500 strikes. On the call side, the highest open interest addition was seen at 23,800, with maximum open interest concentrated at the 24,000 and 25,000 strike prices.

Technically, the Nifty 50 ended Friday down 0.43 per cent at 23,767.45, marking its fifth consecutive losing session amid rising geopolitical tensions and elevated crude oil prices. The index continues to trade below key moving averages, while weakening RSI and MACD indicators suggest bearish momentum remains intact. Immediate support is placed at 23,649, followed by 23,598 and 23,515, with 23,600 remaining a crucial level. On the upside, resistance is seen at 23,815, 23,867 and 23,950. Sustaining above 23,600 could open the door for a recovery towards the 24,000-24,100 zone.

Stock-specific action is expected to remain strong following several major corporate developments. NTPC reported an 11.9 per cent year-on-year rise in standalone net profit to Rs 5,342.4 crore, while revenue increased 3 per cent to Rs 43,831.9 crore. Tata Consumer Products posted a 27.8 per cent jump in consolidated profit to Rs 427 crore, with revenue rising 11.9 per cent to Rs 5,348.9 crore. India branded business volumes grew 13 per cent, while international business expanded 16 per cent.

Jindal Steel reported a 43.6 per cent decline in profit despite a 25.9 per cent rise in revenue and also announced appointments of a new Managing Director, Chief Financial Officer and Chief Operating Officer. REC posted a 6.1 per cent decline in profit, while net interest income fell 3.6 per cent.

SBI Cards and Payment Services reported a 19.5 per cent increase in profit to Rs 664.4 crore, although net interest income remained largely flat. Bank of Baroda posted a 71.9 per cent decline in profit due to a one-time exceptional loss of Rs 5,680.2 crore related to a USD 600 million settlement in the NMC Group litigation. Net interest income rose 9.5 per cent, while asset quality weakened marginally.

Bank of India delivered a 36.2 per cent rise in profit, supported by 12.6 per cent growth in net interest income, lower provisions and improved asset quality. IDFC First Bank reported a 132.4 per cent jump in profit, with net interest income rising 21.1 per cent and provisions falling 31 per cent. The bank also received Rs 514.82 crore under the CGFMU Scheme.

AU Small Finance Bank posted a 37 per cent increase in profit and a 31.8 per cent rise in net interest income, although asset quality weakened slightly on a sequential basis. DCB Bank reported a 35.6 per cent rise in profit, driven by higher net interest income, lower provisions and improved asset quality. Lodha Developers more than doubled its quarterly profit with a 103.4 per cent increase, while revenue grew 43.1 per cent.

Vedant Fashions reported a 14.7 per cent increase in profit and approved the reappointment of Ravi Modi as Chairman and Managing Director for another five years. Zen Technologies posted a 40 per cent decline in profit and a 10.5 per cent fall in revenue but launched its first high-altitude man-portable anti-drone system.

Landmark Cars received a Letter of Intent from JSW MG Motor India to establish a new MG Experia showroom in Ahmedabad through its subsidiary. Waaree Renewable Technologies secured two EPC contracts for ground-mounted Solar photovoltaic projects with a combined capacity of 800 MWac or 1,082 MWp. NBCC (India) won new work orders worth Rs 108.85 crore, while Authum Investment & Infrastructure said the Income Tax Department concluded search operations after the company extended full cooperation. Hirect secured two maiden Indian Railways orders worth Rs 60 crore each for propulsion equipment, while Sarda Energy and Minerals approved a Rs 300 crore capital expenditure plan through its subsidiary for expansion projects.

There are no stocks under the F&O ban for today's trading session.

Institutional activity remained mixed on July 24. Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) sold equities worth Rs 3,892.77 crore, while Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) purchased shares worth Rs 5,453.55 crore, helping absorb selling pressure.

On Friday, the Indian market ended lower for the fifth straight session as rising crude oil prices and geopolitical uncertainty weighed on sentiment. The BSE Sensex declined 332 points, or 0.43 per cent, to close at 76,059.77, while the Nifty 50 fell 102 points, or 0.43 per cent, to settle at 23,767.45. Broader markets also ended weak, with the Nifty Midcap 100 declining 0.10 per cent and the Nifty Smallcap 100 falling 0.32 per cent.

Global cues remain supportive at the start of the week. Wall Street futures moved higher after oil prices retreated, with Dow Jones futures rising 0.5 per cent, S&P 500 futures gaining 0.6 per cent and Nasdaq 100 futures climbing 1.2 per cent. Investors will now closely monitor earnings from major technology companies and the upcoming U.S. Federal Reserve policy meeting for fresh direction on global markets.

Disclaimer: The article is for informational purposes only and not investment advice.