Stocks for August: 2 Stock Picks with Over 80% Win Rate and Double-Digit Gains Historically

July had been one of the best-performing months historically, but this year it took a different turn. On average, the benchmark Nifty 50 has delivered gains of 2.40 per cent during this month, and since 2019, it had never recorded a negative return. However, July 2025 proved to be an exception. The Nifty 50 index declined sharply by 2.90 per cent—the worst monthly performance in 2025 after February—thereby snapping its four-month winning streak.

So, what led to this reversal of fortunes in a month that has historically favoured the bulls?

The Q1FY26 earnings season has been underwhelming so far. Particularly, the management commentary from several leading IT companies has highlighted global and macroeconomic headwinds, with a noticeably cautious tone regarding near-term growth prospects.

Adding to this negative sentiment, trade negotiations between India and the US failed to yield favourable results. In a surprising move, US President Donald Trump imposed a hefty 25 per cent tariff on Indian imports, coupled with an unspecified penalty. This penalty is reportedly linked to India’s continued trade engagement with Russia, especially in oil and military equipment.

This geopolitical blow comes at a time when India is striving to establish itself as a global manufacturing powerhouse. The imposition of tariffs and additional penalties threatens to erode India’s competitive edge, potentially benefiting regional rivals.

August too began on a weak note, with the benchmark Nifty 50 slipping by 0.82 per cent on the first trading session of the month.

Yet, as Sun Tzu once said in The Art of War, “In the midst of chaos, there is also opportunity.” And indeed, even amid the current volatility in Indian equity markets, there appears to be a silver lining—one grounded not in speculation, but in historical evidence. This is where seasonality analysis comes into play.

What is Seasonality Analysis?

Seasonality analysis in stocks refers to identifying patterns where a stock or sector tends to perform consistently better (or worse) during specific times of the year—such as particular months, quarters, or festive seasons.

Based on seasonality data for August, two stocks stand out with more than 80 per cent accuracy in delivering positive returns during this month. This means they have posted gains in August 8 out of 10 times historically, making them strong seasonal performers worth watching.

1. SRF Ltd.

SRF operates across multiple segments including technical textiles, refrigerants, fluoro specialty chemicals, specialty chemicals, and packaging films. The stock boasts a success ratio of 82.61 per cent in the month of August. Out of the past 23 years, it has delivered positive returns in 19 of them during this month.

What’s even more impressive is the stock's eight consecutive years of positive returns in August—spanning from 2016 to 2023. That’s eight straight Augusts of gains. Over this period, SRF has delivered an average return of 11.95 per cent, marking a strong double-digit seasonal performance.

2. BASF India Ltd.

BASF India is the flagship Indian subsidiary (73.33 per cent holding) of BASF SE. Its journey in India began after acquiring RA Cole Pvt Ltd, a manufacturer of expanded polystyrene, which was renamed BASF India in 1967. The company’s portfolio spans six major segments: chemicals, materials, industrial solutions, surface technologies, nutrition and care, and agricultural solutions.

BASF India also has an impressive August success ratio of 82.61 per cent, with positive returns in 19 out of the past 23 years. More notably, it recorded nine consecutive years of gains from 2014 to 2022 in August. During this period, the stock delivered average gains of 10.81 per cent, another strong double-digit showing.

If you are someone looking for opportunities amid the chaos, these two stocks—SRF and BASF India—have historically delivered double-digit gains in August with a success rate of over 80 per cent. Watch out—August could be their month again!

Disclaimer: The article is for informational purposes only and not investment advice.