Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis of 1 stock (with 15-day horizon) [EasyDNNnews:PaidContentStart]

WHAT LIES AHEAD : NEAR-TERM PICTURE
SPOT NIFTY : The Nifty50 index, after registering gains for the third consecutive session on Wednesday, witnessed a brutal fall on Thursday. This was the sharpest single-day decline in the index since June 2024. The fall was mainly triggered by a spike in crude oil prices and a sharp decline in private Banking heavyweights HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank.

The index closed at the 23,002 level, and on an Intraday basis, it declined below the March 17 low and almost filled the gap area of April 15. The Nifty registered a fresh distribution day. The volume in rupee terms was also higher and remained above average. The index is now 8.23 per cent below the 50 DMA and 8.79 per cent below the 200 DMA. The Nifty erased all the gains of the last three days.

The RSI has slipped back below the 30 zone. The MACD histogram shows an increase in bearish momentum. The ADX at 37.46 indicates complete bear control over the trend. The Nifty has declined 12.95 per cent from its recent high. The fall has been sharp both in terms of time and price.

The current structure suggests that any bounce should be seen as a fresh opportunity to exit long positions. In any case, a close below 22,920 may trigger further selling pressure and the index may test 22,770, which is the measured target of the breakdown from the rectangle pattern. For a counter-trend consolidation, the index must close above 23,378 with stronger volumes. Stay away from bottom fishing until there are clear signs of base formation.

NIFTY DERIVATIVES: After closing at 23,639.15 last Thursday, Nifty continued to witness selling pressure during the week and ended today’s session at 23,002.15. The index extended its downtrend, reflecting persistent weakness in broader market sentiment. On a weekly basis, Nifty declined nearly 2.69 per cent, or 637 points. ATM Implied Volatility (IV) surged further from last week’s 22.56 to 28.71, indicating a sharp escalation in option premiums amid heightened uncertainty. India VIX also inched higher from 21.51 to 22.80, sustaining elevated volatility levels. The Put-Call Ratio (PCR) for the upcoming weekly expiry remained largely unchanged, moving marginally from 0.6978 to 0.6996, and continues to stay in the oversold region.

For the coming weekly expiry, total call open interest stands at 18,56,745 contracts, while total put open interest is at 13,29,000 contracts. Among the call options, Deep OTM strike 25,000 carries the highest open interest at 1,30,926 contracts, followed by the 24,000 with 1,05,728 and strike 24,500 with open interest at 94,935 contracts, respectively. On the put side, Deep OTM strike 21,000 has the highest open interest at 1,34,910 contracts, followed by the strike 23,000 with 1,03,904 contracts and strike 22,000 with 89,014 contracts. The Max Pain level for the upcoming expiry is positioned at 23,000.

STOCK STRATEGY
HATSUN AGRO PRODUCT LTD .................. BUY ................ CMP ₹994.50
BSE Code ...... 531531
Target 1 .... ₹1,080
Target 2 .... ₹1,120 
Stoploss ...₹942 (CLS)

■ Current Observation: Hatsun Agro Product manufactures and markets products catering to both cooking and consumption, such as milk, curd, ice cream, dairy whitener, skimmed milk powder, ghee, paneer, and more.

■ The stock has closed above the 38.2 per cent retracement level of the previous fall and has sustained above the double bottom breakout level. It has also broken out of a rising channel. Its Relative Strength line is rising and is above the previous high, indicating outperformance even in weak market conditions.

■ The stock is currently trading above all the key moving averages. The Bollinger Bands are expanding, and it is trading 7.90 per cent above the 50 DMA. The moving average ribbon remains in an uptrend. The MACD is above the zero line, and the histogram indicates increasing bullish momentum.

■ The RSI is in the strong bullish zone. The KST and Stochastic RSI are also bullish. The Elder Impulse System has formed a strong bullish bar.

■ In short, the stock is trading above a key resistance level and has broken out of a bullish pattern. A move above Rs. 990 is positive, and the stock can test Rs. 1,080–1,120. Maintain a stop loss at Rs. 942.

REVIEW OF STOCK STRATEGY

In issue no. 22, dated March 12, 2026, we recommended purchasing shares of ABB India at Rs 6,412.50. Stock closed above previous important swing high and broken out from trend continuation price pattern on the short-term time frame. However, post recommendation, in the recent weakness of the market, stock witnessed sell off with high volume and traded lower. Due to this price action, our stoploss gets triggered. Thus, we exited the position at Rs 6,203.15. This update is shared exclusively through the Flash News app to ensure our subscribers receive timely and accurate information.

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