Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis of 1 stock (with 15-day horizon) [EasyDNNnews:PaidContentStart]

WHAT LIES AHEAD : NEAR-TERM PICTURE
SPOT NIFTY : The Nifty extended its decline for the fourth consecutive session on Thursday, ending every trading session of the week in the red. As a result, the index recorded its worst weekly decline in 29 weeks, falling 3.11 per cent. It also registered its eighth consecutive weekly decline, a losing streak not seen in 25 years.

On Thursday, the Nifty came close to testing the April 2 low of 22,182.55. It also breached the rising trendline support drawn from the June 2024 and April 2025 lows, both of which are major swing lows. Importantly, the index also broke below its 200-week MA on a weekly closing basis, something last seen during March 2020.

The Nifty recovered nearly 200 points from the day’s low and formed a bearish-bodied candle with a long lower shadow. It retraced more than 50 per cent of the day’s decline but still closed outside the Bollinger Bands. The RSI, at 22.86, remains in the extreme oversold zone, while the weekly RSI, at 31, is also approaching oversold territory. The MACD continues to indicate strong bearish momentum.

The index has also moved significantly away from its key moving averages. It is trading 6.07 per cent below the 50-DMA and 3.64 per cent below the 20-DMA, indicating that the decline has become overstretched.

Going forward, Thursday high of 22,611 is key resistance. Above this level, the immediate resistance is placed at the 8-EMA of 22,849. A close above this level could confirm a counter-trend rally towards the 20-DMA, currently placed at 23,268. On the downside, Thursday’s low of 22,217 remains the crucial support. A break below this level could open the door for further downside.

NIFTY DERIVATIVES: Nifty futures declined 588.6 points from last Thursday to this Thursday, closing around 22,520, highlighting sustained weakness in the index. On Thursday alone, Nifty fell 0.82%, while India VIX jumped 7.19%, showing a clear rise in volatility and cautious positioning among traders

For the Nifty 50 weekly expiry on October 6, 2026, the PutCall Ratio (PCR) stood at 0.72, indicating relatively higher Call OI compared with Put OI. Total Call OI was around 4.75 crore, while Put OI stood near 1.08 crore, keeping the derivatives setup tilted towards the bearish side

The OI change also supports this view, with Call OI increasing by around 3.01 crore, while Put OI rose by only about 28.05 lakh. Heavy Call OI is visible around 23,000, 23,500 and 24,000, suggesting these levels may act as overhead resistance. Put OI remains comparatively concentrated around 22,000.

The Max Pain level is placed at 22,550, slightly above the current Nifty futures level of 22,451.7. The combination of low PCR, strong Call writing and limited Put addition suggests that traders remain cautious after the recent decline. Unless Nifty moves back above the 22,550–22,600 zone, the derivatives setup continues to reflect pressure on the index.

STOCK STRATEGY
CUPID LTD. ..................................... BUY .......................... CMP ₹312.90
BSE Code ...... 530843
Target 1 .... ₹338 
Target 2 .... ₹345 
Stoploss ...₹292 (CLS)

■ Current Observation: Cupid Limited is one of Bharat’s leading healthcare and personal care companies, engaged in the manufacturing and marketing of male and female condoms, water-based personal lubricants, IVD kits, and an expanding range of consumer healthcare and FMCG products. Its consumer portfolio spans fragrances such as Eau De Parfums, deodorants and pocket perfumes, along with hair removal sprays, face wash, hair and body oils, toilet sanitisers, IVD kits, personal lubricants and other healthcare products.

■ On the technical front, the stock has broken out of a sevenweek consolidation base, supported by stronger volumes over the past two weeks. It has also closed at a fresh lifetime high, while the Relative Strength line has moved to a new high, indicating continued outperformance against the broader market. Both short- and long-term moving averages remain in an uptrend, reinforcing the positive price structure.

■ Momentum indicators are also supportive of the breakout. The moving average ribbon continues to trend higher, while the MACD has generated a fresh bullish signal. The RSI has re-entered the strong bullish zone.

■ Overall, the stock has registered a bullish breakout with supportive price, volume and momentum signals. On the upside, it has the potential to test Rs 338-345. Keep a stop loss of Rs 292 on a closing basis.

REVIEW OF STOCK STRATEGY
In Issue No. 50 dated September 24, 2026, we recommended JSW Infrastructure Ltd after the stock witnessed a breakout from a horizontal trendline that had remained intact for over two years. Following our recommendation, the stock retreated from higher levels amid the market correction and subsequently re-tested its 20-DMA. On October 1, heightened market volatility pushed the stock below the stop-loss level on an Intraday basis. However, it managed to recover and hold above the stop loss on a closing basis, while continuing to trade near our recommended level. Hence, investors may continue to hold the stock with the respective stop loss on a closing basis for the mentioned target.

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