Indian Markets May Open Sideways

DSIJ Intelligence / 18 Jul 2012

The Indian markets may open sideways in line with the global cues. The SGX Nifty is trading marginally higher by 1 point at 5,195, indicating a neutral or muted opening in either direction in today’s trade.

The Indian markets may open sideways in line with the global cues. The SGX Nifty is trading marginally higher by 1 point at 5,195, indicating a neutral or muted opening in either direction in today’s trade.

Benchmark Indices
IndexClosing% Change
SENSEX 17105.3 0.01
NIFTY 5192.85 -0.08
Dow Jones 12806 0.62
S&P 500 1364 0.74
NASDAQ 2910 0.45
Bovespa 53909.47 0.95
FTSE 5629 -0.59
DAX 6578 0.18
CAC 3177 -0.09
..    
Hang Seng 19385 -0.36
Nikkei 8776 0.24
Shanghai 2161.17 0.00

Yesterday the markets closed on a very flat note. In their early trades the markets showed some gains but till the closing bell all these gains were given up. Investors and traders will now watch out for the CPI data to be released today afternoon since it could swing the markets on either side. The RBI would also be watching the data keenly as it will be taken into consideration during its monetary meet.

Overnight, the U.S. markets forayed into the positive territory with major indices like Dow, S&P 500 and NASDAQ closing higher in the range of 0.4 to 0.8 per cent. This was in the wake of the Bloomberg report which quoted Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S Bernanke as having said that the U.S. policy makers are prepared to act to boost economic growth. Meanwhile, the U.S. industrial production increased in June, paced by gains among auto and machinery makers. This may help ease concern about the issue of some of the drivers of the U.S. economy being on shaky ground. Yesterday Goldman Sachs and Coca–Cola announced their second quarter results, which were better than expected.

The European markets closed on a mixed note with DAX closing higher in the green zone while FTSE and CAC closed their trades in the red, down by 0.59 and 0.09 per cent respectively. This was also due to the Bloomberg report which stated that companies such as Alcatel-Lucent SA had reported lower earnings and Wolseley Plc had announced that it would sell its French business.

Reacting to the U.S. and European markets’ cues overnight, the Asian markets beamed a mixed response. Shanghai is trading on flat ground while Hang Seng is trading in the red and Nikkei is trading marginally in the positive. According to media reports, the Asian investors are still nervous and are waiting for Bernanke’s testimony to the Congress tonight while the risk appetite is likely to be supported with hopes of quantitative easing.

Key Global Indicators
 Gold (Rs/10gm)Crude ($/bbl)
Spot 29284 103.28
% change 0.23 -0.69
Future 29282 88.83
% change 0.01 -0.44

Currency Rates
 Rs/$Rs/EuroRs/GBPRs100/JYP
RBI Rate 55.1455 67.726 86.2972 69.88
Future 55.18 67.7925 86.12 69.685

The rupee has recovered from its all-time low but is trading above the comfort zone at Rs 55.1455 against a dollar. Brent crude has again started moving northwards from the lower level of USD 89 and has crossed the three-digit level at USD 103 per barrel. If crude continues it upward trend and once again touches the USD 125 level, it would again push inflation northwards and worsen our balance of payments, thereby affecting the economy.

Investors should watch out for stocks like CRISIL, Bajaj Auto, Honeywell Auto, Sagar Cements, and Shalimar Paints as these companies are scheduled to announce their June 2012 quarter results. One may see some volatility in the above mentioned scrips in tomorrow’s trade. In conclusion, we expect the markets to remain volatile while they react to the CPI data. Our advice therefore is to invest with caution.

BSE Institutional Turnover
  FII   DII  
Trade Date Buy Sales Net Buy Sales Net
17-Jul-12 2088.27 1613.32 474.95 777.45 1043.66 -266.22
16-Jul-12 1639.72 1382.55 257.17 683.29 723.88 -40.59
13-Jul-12 1,957.01 1,675.88 281.13 611.04 981.45 -370.41
July, 12 25,337.35 20,690.67 4,646.68 9,670.08 13,597.83 -3,927.76

FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 17-July-2012
 BUYSELLOI (End of the day) Net Position
 Rs (crore)Rs (crore)No. of contractsRs (crore)Rs (crore)
INDEX FUTURES 1271.58 1142.23 611002 15376.54 129.35
INDEX OPTIONS 8974.91 9062.45 1668284 43326.38 -87.54
STOCK FUTURES 1538.42 1949.74 1003171 26382.23 -411.32
STOCK OPTIONS 1173.36 1220.57 70288 1946.99 -47.21
Total 12958.26 13374.98 3352745.00 87032.14 -416.72

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