JSW Infrastructure expansion pipeline and logistics growth underpin FY28 earnings acceleration

Investment View and Valuation

In its July 21, 2026 1QFY27 results update, Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited (MOFSL) reiterated its Buy recommendation on JSW Infrastructure and retained its FY27E and FY28E estimates. The constructive view is based on steady cargo-volume growth despite disruption at Fujairah, the scale-up of the logistics platform and a large port and logistics expansion programme.

MOFSL values the company at 19x FY28E EV/EBITDA and has retained a target price of Rs 400, compared with the CMP of Rs 345.

1QFY27 Operating and Financial Performance

JSW Infrastructure handled 31 MMT of cargo in 1QFY27, representing year-on-year growth of 6 per cent. Volumes were affected by lower throughput at the Fujairah terminal amid the Middle East crisis. However, stronger volumes from anchor customers at Jaigarh Port, together with healthy performance at South West Port, Dharamtar and Ennore Bulk Terminal and interim operations at Tuticorin, partly offset the impact.

Group cargo volumes rose 14 per cent year-on-year. Third-party cargo volumes declined about 2 per cent year-on-year, and their share fell to 48 per cent from 52 per cent in 1QFY26, reflecting higher anchor-customer volumes.

Fujairah Normalisation and FY27 Guidance

Management stated that normalised Middle East operations would have lifted quarterly port EBITDA by Rs 65 crore to Rs 70 crore. It expects Fujairah operations to normalise by August 2026, with eight storage tanks resuming by the end of July or early August and another three by September to October.

Management retained its FY27 guidance for cargo volume of about 127 MT, revenue of Rs 6,850 crore and EBITDA of Rs 3,000 crore. The company reported gross debt of Rs 7,090 crore and cash and bank balances of Rs 9,860 crore.

Logistics Platform and Expansion Roadmap

The logistics roadmap remains an important growth driver. Navkar recorded EXIM volumes of 83,000 TEUs, up 2 per cent year-on-year, and domestic cargo of 0.385 million tonnes, up 40 per cent.

JSW Infrastructure commenced commercial operations at Arakkonam GCT and secured environmental clearance and rail-connectivity approval to the Dedicated Freight Corridor for Murbe Port. Following the acquisition of three rail-logistics entities in 4QFY26 for an enterprise value of Rs 1,210 crore, management expects the acquired businesses to generate FY27 EBITDA of Rs 150 crore.

The rail fleet is targeted to increase from 25 rakes to 80 by FY27 and 110 by FY30.

Capex Plans and Long-Term Targets

Management plans Rs 16,500 crore of capex across FY27 and FY28, comprising Rs 13,000 crore for ports and Rs 3,500 crore for logistics. It targets port capacity of 400 MTPA and logistics revenue of Rs 8,000 crore, with a 25 per cent EBITDA margin, by FY30.

MOFSL expects major port expansions to be completed by the start of FY28. Incremental Jaigarh and Dharamtar volumes after commissioning of new Dolvi Steel capacity, alongside rising logistics revenue, underpin MOFSL's FY26 to FY28E CAGR estimates.

Key Factors to Monitor

• The pace of Fujairah normalisation.
• Delivery of major capex projects.
• Execution of the logistics expansion plan.
• The anticipated margin dilution as logistics becomes a larger part of the business mix.