Oberoi Realty's NCR launch pipeline and rentals drive pre-sales growth outlook

Investment Case and Business Overview

ICICI Securities' August 24, 2026 report identifies scale-up through new residential launches, particularly in the National Capital Region (NCR), alongside a growing rental portfolio as the central investment case for Oberoi Realty Limited.

Oberoi Realty is a Mumbai-based premium real estate developer with residential, office, retail and hospitality operations. The company has more than Rs 15,000 crore of inventory across eight ongoing residential projects and is developing office, retail and hospitality assets in Borivali, Worli and Thane.

Residential Launch Pipeline and NCR Expansion

The broker highlights the successful first phase of the Three Sixty North luxury project in NCR, which generated gross bookings of Rs 8,109 crore for approximately 13.52 lakh square feet of carpet area, out of 23.10 lakh square feet.

Restrictions on further allotments and the creation of third-party rights, related to a writ petition filed by Advance India Projects, have ceased to be operative. ICICI Securities therefore expects Oberoi Realty to launch phase two of Three Sixty North, with approximately Rs 7,500 crore of gross development value, in FY28E.

The broker considers the strong response to the maiden NCR launch supportive of future business development in NCR, preferably through large land parcels, adding geographic diversification and scalability.

Oberoi Realty's FY27 launch pipeline includes:

• Pedder Road
• Tower D at Forestville
• Tower A at Jardine
• Ralliwolf Mulund
• Enigma commercial strata sale
• Adarsh Nagar in Worli
• Alibaug
• Bandra RLDA
• Borivali SRA project

Based on the assumed full FY28E launch of Three Sixty North phase two, ICICI Securities estimates pre-sales to grow at more than 70 per cent CAGR between FY26 and FY28E. Robust pre-sales over the next two years, driven by the NCR project launch, are regarded as a key catalyst.

Rental and Hospitality Portfolio

The annuity portfolio is another pillar of the broker's thesis. During Q1 FY27, lease rentals rose approximately 19 per cent year-on-year and 1 per cent quarter-on-quarter to Rs 364 crore.

Sky City Mall is targeted to approach 100 per cent occupancy by the end of FY27. Hospitality revenue and EBITDA increased 10 per cent and 14 per cent year-on-year, respectively, to Rs 47 crore and Rs 18 crore in Q1 FY27.

Oberoi Realty plans to open the Marriott Hotel at Sky City in H1 FY28 and the Ritz Carlton at Worli in Q4 FY27. ICICI Securities estimates rental income from retail and office assets to grow at approximately 17 per cent CAGR from FY26 to FY29E.

Financial Forecasts

ICICI Securities forecasts revenue of Rs 6,464.2 crore in FY27E and Rs 8,440.0 crore in FY28E, versus Rs 6,009.1 crore in FY26. It estimates EBITDA of Rs 3,592.4 crore and Rs 4,703.9 crore, respectively, with EBITDA margins of 55.6 per cent and 55.7 per cent. Estimated net profit is Rs 2,624.5 crore for FY27E and Rs 3,471.3 crore for FY28E, compared with Rs 2,530.5 crore in FY26.

Valuation and Key Risks

The broker maintains a BUY rating and a sum-of-the-parts-based target price of Rs 2,200, incorporating a 40 per cent premium to residential NAV.

Key risks identified by ICICI Securities are:

• A slowdown in pre-sales caused by weakness in the Mumbai Metropolitan Region (MMR).
• Delays in project launches or execution.
• Higher interest rates and/or key raw-material prices.