Nifty 50 and Sensex Edge Higher as Softer US Inflation Fuels Rate Cut Hopes

Market Update at 9:35 AM: India’s equity benchmarks opened higher on Monday as softer-than-expected September US inflation data strengthened expectations of two additional rate cuts in 2025.

The Nifty 50 rose 0.19 per cent to 25,843.2, while the BSE Sensex gained 0.09 per cent to 84,297.39 at 9:15 a.m. IST. Both indices traded less than 1.5 per cent below their record highs reached in September 2024.

All 16 major sectoral indices registered early gains. The broader Small-Cap index increased 0.3 per cent, while the Mid-Cap index advanced 0.4 per cent.

Asian markets followed a positive trend after US consumer price inflation eased in September, reinforcing hopes that the Federal Reserve may announce rate cuts during its policy meetings in November and December. Lower US interest rates typically make emerging markets such as India more appealing to foreign investors.

Meanwhile, U.S. and Chinese officials discussed the framework of a trade deal to be reviewed later this week by U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, according to US officials.

Pre-Market Update at 7:35 AM: Equity benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty 50 are expected to start positively on Monday, October 27, 2025, following gains in global markets as investors cheered progress in the US–China trade talks. Trends on the GIFT Nifty indicated a firm opening for Indian equities, trading 54 points higher at 25,919 around 7:17 AM.

In early trade, Asian markets moved higher, with Japan’s Nikkei crossing the 50,000 mark for the first time. On Wall Street, all three major indexes — Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq — closed at record highs last week, supported by softer inflation data and expectations of further Federal Reserve rate cuts.

India’s Ambassador to the US, Vinay Mohan Kwatra, met Jeanne Shaheen, Ranking Member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, to discuss bilateral trade relations, energy security, and cooperation in oil and gas trade.

This week, investor focus will remain on the US Federal Reserve meeting, progress in US–China and India–US trade deals, Q2 corporate results, movements in gold and silver prices, FII–DII flows, and key domestic and global macroeconomic data.

Indian Oil Corporation, Adani Energy Solutions, Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders, Indus Towers, SRF, Supreme Industries, Tata Investment Corporation, and Sona BLW Precision Forgings are set to announce their Q2 FY26 results today.

On Friday, October 24, Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net sellers, offloading equities worth Rs 621.51 crore. Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) were buyers, purchasing equities worth Rs 173.13 crore — their second consecutive session of net buying.

Indian equity indices opened higher but gave up early gains due to profit booking. The Nifty 50 hit an Intraday low of 25,718.20 before closing 0.37 per cent lower at 25,795.15. The Sensex declined 0.41 per cent to 84,211.88, and the Bank Nifty slipped 0.65 per cent to end below 57,700. For the week, the Nifty 50 gained 0.33 per cent, marking a four-week winning run, while the Bank Nifty edged down 0.02 per cent.

On Friday, US markets ended at all-time highs. The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 472.51 points, or 1.01 per cent, to 47,207.12 — closing above 47,000 for the first time. The S&P 500 rose 0.79 per cent to 6,791.69, and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.15 per cent to 23,204.87. Investors now await the Federal Reserve’s policy decision, where a 25-basis-point rate cut is widely expected.

Inflation in the United States rose slightly below estimates in September. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased 0.3 per cent during the month after a 0.4 per cent rise in August. Annually, CPI grew 3.0 per cent compared with 2.9 per cent a month earlier.

Senior negotiators from both nations announced a preliminary framework for a trade agreement ahead of the scheduled meeting between Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping. US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer stated that both sides were finalizing details of the framework for potential signing at the ASEAN Summit.

Gold prices fell as progress in trade talks reduced demand for safe-haven assets. Spot gold was down 0.8 per cent at USD 4,078.36 per ounce as of 5:11 AM IST, while MCX gold futures closed 0.53 per cent lower at Rs 1,23,451 per 10 grams.

Oil prices rose on improved trade sentiment. Brent crude futures gained 0.7 per cent to USD 66.40 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude advanced 0.75 per cent to USD 61.96 a barrel. Both benchmarks posted strong weekly gains amid continued US and EU sanctions on Russia.

For today, SAIL and RBL Bank will remain on the F&O ban list.

Disclaimer: The article is for informational purposes only and not investment advice.