El Nino hounds the south-west monsoon; IMD forecast holds last hope for the markets

Private weather forecast agencies are not very hopeful about the south-west monsoon which normally decides the fate of the economy and stock markets, further defining the future inflation and interest rates. The markets are eagerly waiting for the final weather prediction to be rolled out by the  India Meteorological Department (IMD). Experts believe that the impact of inadequate rainfall is minimal on agriculture as the sector has evolved with time, and it is backed by a well-knitted irrigation network and other modern procedures. Still, a healthy rainfall is extremely important to boost the agri yield. 

Southwest monsoon plays a key role in providing more than 70% of the rainfall in the country. Experts believe that the June to September rainfall is vital for the farming sector, and Skymet, a private weather forecast agency predicted slightly less rainfall for 2017, which will be dominated by the El Nino phenomenon. The El Nino had an overbearing impact on the monsoon of India in the past and it further reduced the annual agri production of the country in the last few years. 

IMD's chief, KJ Ramesh had told a leading business daily, that the presence of El Nino would not be there during the monsoon development stage. Though some of the private forecasters believe that the El Nino will have a catastrophic effect on the monsoon this year and might reduce it considerably. Weather wizards think that the Indian Ocean Dipole will play the part of a protector by staying neutral during the four-month south-west monsoon.