Monsoon 2017: Skymet refutes heavy monsoon forecasts of IMD

Refuting IMD’s forecast of heavy monsoon, India’s only private weather agency, Skymet warned the markets against ‘irrational exuberance’ on May 12, 2017, much to the dismay of companies relying on healthier agricultural performance.    
 
IMD, the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) had confirmed to a leading news portal that, with the concerns over El Nino wearing off, the critical June-September monsoon season is most likely to bring better than expected rainfall.   
 
The El Nino usually occurs every few years, resulting in crop damage, fires and flash floods. While, Skymet stated that a clear stance on monsoons may only be taken after a week or 10-day’s observation of the trends, a mixed bag of opinions is pouring in from forecast agencies around the world.  
 
Australia's Bureau of Meteorology stated that according to some international climate models the likelihood of El Nino has reduced. However, five of eight similar models suggested that the tropical Pacific Ocean will most likely exceed the chances of El Nino offset in the second half of 2017. Moreover, the US-based MDA Weather Services also forecasted a below average rainfall in India for the year.
 
Rainfall between 96 percent and 104 percent of the 50-year average is defined as the average or normal rainfall in the country.  
 
Recently the central government sent letters to the states to set up drought management units and precautions. Whereas, according to the government data, only once in the previous four years actual rains surpassed IMD’s official forecasts.