Markets may open sideways amidst speculation over RBI’s policy stance

DSIJ Intelligence / 25 Oct 2011

Faced with double-digit inflation, RBI is likely to raise its policy rate again by 25 bps.

Morning Update 25thOct 2011

Opening Bias

The markets may open sideways in line with global cues amidst speculation looming over RBI’s policy stance expected today. The SGX Nifty is trading up by 22 points at 5149.5 indicating a gap up opening.

Benchmark Indices

Index Closing % Change
SENSEX 16939.28 0.92
NIFTY 5098.35 0.96
Dow Jones 11913.62 0.89
S&P 500 1254.19 1.29
NASDAQ 2699.44 2.35
Bovespa 56892 2.96
FTSE 5548.06 1.08
DAX 6055.27 1.41
CAC 3220.46 1.55
LIVE
Hang Seng 18866.9 0.51
Nikkei 8821.71 -0.25
Shanghai 2364.18 -0.26


Overnight U.S. stocks rallied on the back of Caterpillar Inc.’s upbeat results and some merger-and-acquisition deals which spiked investor’s optimism against a backdrop of concern and speculation over the efforts taken by European leaders to arrest the region’s debt crisis. However the Asian markets this morning are seen trading on a mixed and volatile note as investor’s wait to see how European policy-makers will hammer out details to enhance the region’s bailout fund.

Currency Rates

  Rs/$ Rs/Euro Rs/GBP Rs100/JYP
RBI Rate 49.8745 69.5253 79.7294 65.3700
Future 49.8675 68.9700 79.5250 65.4950


Back home, today RBI will announce its half-yearly monetary policy, which will provide some vital cues on the way forward. Faced with double-digit inflation, we believe that RBI is likely to raise its policy rate again by 25 bps. Although major bankers have suggested the RBI to pause on its interest rate hike cycle to check deterioration in asset quality and fire up credit demand, there is little chance that the central bank will accommodate their requests as both food and headline inflation are very high.

However, in its macroeconomic and monetary development report released yesterday the Central Bank reiterated that inflation remained high and stubborn, but shifted focus towards the rising downside risk to the economic growth of India and the weakening investment climate. This subtle shift in RBI’s stance may be interpreted by many as signal to the gradual end of the rate hike campaign. We at DSIJ believe that even-though this new stance shift won’t be implemented in the current policy announcement expected today, but going forward the RBI might take a serious pause in its rate hike spree unless there isn’t any serious uptick to inflation again.

Key Global Indicators

  Gold (Rs/10gm) Crude ($/bbl)
Spot 26336 112.06
% change - -0.08
Future 26753 91.32
% change -0.06 0.05


In conclusion, we expect the markets to largely remain volatile for the day, and don’t expect any strong negative reaction towards a 25 bps rate hike as much of it has already been priced in. However we advice our readers to wait and watch out for the mid-afternoon session when RBI announces it policy review. Also the forthcoming Q2 results season may give rise to market speculation on the outcome of individual company results.

Corporate News

State-owned GAIL India today reported 19% rise in net profit to Rs 1094 crore for the quarter ended September 30, 2011 as against Rs 924 crore in the year-ago period on the back of higher gas trading volumes. Turnover was up 20% at Rs 9,699 crore. The surge was despite company's fuel subsidy pay-out rising from Rs 347 crore in Q2 of 2010-11 fiscal to Rs 567 crore in the current fiscal. Sales from petrochemical business were up 30% to Rs 938 crore, while revenue from natural gas trading soared 20% to Rs 7,575 crore. Revenue from natural gas transmission business was almost static at Rs 980 crore. While announcing the results the company’s management added that GAIL India was further planning to buy stakes in more shale gas assets in the United States.

State-run Power Grid Corporation, which is a central transmission utility, intends to go global as an investor and developer of the transmission system. As a beginning, Power Grid Corporation has proposed to form a joint venture (JV) in Bangladesh and Sri Lanka for the setting up of an associated transmission lines to transmit power within the respective countries from the proposed power project planned by India’s largest power generator NTPC. It entails an investment of Rs 1,500 crore. The company has also firmed up an investment plan of Rs 1 lakh crore to increase the inter-regional transmission capacity to 65,000 Mw during 12th Five-Year Plan from the 28,000 Mw in 11th Plan.

Leading Indian rice miller and exporter, KRBL is planning to boost operations in Africa, CIS countries and the UAE and is looking for distribution partners for the region. The company, which had total revenue of USD 317 million for the year ended March 31, said it intends to grow the business by 30 per cent over the next two years. According to sources, Rice traders from across West Asia, Africa and Asia are likely to visit Rice Dubai 2011, scheduled for November 3-5 in Dubai. The company is participating at the meet, and will scout for partners. KRBL, which exports basmati rice, is the owner of the India Gate brand. The company recently joined hands with Federal Foods for the distribution of its brands in the UAE.

Infosys, India’s second-largest IT services company has signed a memorandum of understanding with the Dalian High-tech Zone (DHTZ) in China, to establish a branch company of Infosys Technologies (China). The branch company will have its facility located in DHTZ with a sitting capacity of about 700 people and will focus on delivering consulting, technology and BPO services to its global clients, the Bangalore-headquartered company said in a release.

EdServ Softsystems Ltd, an education support services company based in Chennai, on Monday announced expansion of its mobile learning services through telecom service provider Tata DoCoMo. Through the tie-up, EdServ would offer test preparation content for Indian Institute of Technology-Joint Entrance Examination (IITJEE) and All India Engineering Entrance Examination (AIEEE) on Tata DoCoMos educational platform — Tutor on Mobile (TOM) service—across the country at Rs 5-10 per video.

Areva T&D, which is a part of Alstom Grid, has bagged an Rs 400 crore contract for 765 kv extra high voltage substation from Rajasthan Rajya Vidyut Prasaran Nigam Ltd, the company said on Monday. Areva T&D will design and build 765 kv turnkey substation including extra high voltage transformers and reactors near Kota. The scope of this contract also includes long term maintenance of the substation.

India’s largest information technology (IT) services firm, Tata Consultancy Services (TCS), on Monday announced Scotwest and Capital Credit Unions had chosen TCS BaNCS core banking as its IT platform to transform its infrastructure and address emerging opportunities in community banking in the United Kingdom. Cussco, the joint company set up by both these credit unions, would deploy the common platform and support its entire IT architecture throughout the UK.

Corporate Action

Stocks Paying Dividend (Ex-Date)

Scrip Name Action Rs
Asian Paints Interim Dividend 9.5
Chartered Log Interim Dividend 0.1
Hindustan Zinc Interim Dividend 1.5
TCS 2nd Interim Dividend 3

 

Results Today

Scrip Name Action Scrip Name Action
Agro Tech Foods Q2FY12 Kalyani Steel Q2FY12
Alkyl Amines-$ Q2FY12 KEC Intl Q2FY12
Alstom Projects Q2FY12 Kotak Mah Bank Q2FY12
BASF India Q2FY12 Mirc Elect Q2FY12
BHILWRA TEC Q2FY12 Munjal Showa Q2FY12
Blue Chip India Q2FY12 NTPC Q2FY12
Dr Reddys Lab Q2FY12 Oracle Fin Q2FY12
Engineers India Q2FY12 Rain Commodities Q2FY12
Forbes & Co-$ Q2FY12 Saint Gobain Q2FY12
Gravity India-$ Q2FY12 Sesa Goa Q2FY12
Gruh Finance Q2FY12 TIL Q2FY12
Jay Shree Tea Q2FY12

 

BSE Institutional Turnover

 

 FII

 DII

Trade Date  Buy  Sales  Net  Buy  Sales  Net
24-Oct-11 1,739.51 1,638.41 101.1 693.32 852.16 -158.84
21-Oct-11 1,364.41 1,598.42 -234.01 822.86 749.50 73.36
20-Oct-11 1,468.86 1,940.86 -472 719.91 845.18 -125.27
Oct , 11 31,675.03 33,018.62 -1343.59 15,076.40 15,173.68 -97.2

 

FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 24-Oct-2011

 

BUY

SELL

OI (End of day)

Net Position
  No. of contracts Rs (crore) No. of contracts Rs (crore) No. of contracts Rs (crore) Rs (crore)
Index Futures 230142 5907.89 194622 4990.69 597951 15190.07 917.20
Index Options 445926 11388.00 457141 11633.20 2123452 54125.47 -245.20
Stock Futures 257806 6257.02 255845 6234.49 1229114 29837.78 22.53
Stock Options 10483 269.45 8948 227.71 41744 1074.80 41.74
Total 944357 23822.36 916556 23086.09 3992261 100228.12 736.27

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