Markets likely to open on a subdued & negative note

DSIJ Intelligence / 02 Dec 2011

Overnight, U.S. stocks tilted lower as investors on Wall Street turned wary before Friday’s November jobs report.

Morning Update 02ndDec 2011

Opening Bias

Indian stock markets are likely to open on a subdued and negative note today, in line with weak and mixed bag of global cues. The SGX Nifty is trading down by 12 points at 4945 indicating a gap down opening for the markets today.

Benchmark Indices

Index Closing % Change
SENSEX 16483.45 2.23
NIFTY 4936.85 2.17
Dow Jones 12020.03 -0.21
S&P 500 1244.58 -0.19
NASDAQ 2626.2 0.22
Bovespa 58143.4 2.23
FTSE 5489.34 -0.29
DAX 6035.88 -0.87
CAC 3129.95 -0.78
LIVE
Hang Seng 18946.57 -0.29
Nikkei 8621.85 0.28
Shanghai 2480.67 -0.80

Overnight, U.S. stocks tilted lower after as investors on Wall Street turned wary before Friday’s November jobs report and after claims for unemployment benefits rose last week. European stock markets also dropped marginally, putting an end to their four-session winning streak, as mixed results from Spanish and French bond auctions as well as a downbeat survey of the euro zone’s manufacturing sector kept investors on the edge. Asian markets are also seen trading on a flat and subdued note in early morning trade, much in line with global cues.

Indian ADR’s traded in the American markets have closed on a mixed note indicating a choppy day ahead for them in the Indian markets. In the IT space, Wipro was up 0.62 per cent, Patni was down 3.39% and Infosys was up by 1.53 per cent. In the Telecom space, MTNL was up 1.87 per cent and Tata Communication 1.51 per cent. In the banking space, HDFC Bank was down 0.83 per cent and ICICI Bank was up 2.23 per cent. Other ADRs like Tata Motors was up 2.85 per cent, Sterlite was up 1.24 per cent and Dr Reddy’s Laboratories was down 0.37 per cent.

Currency Rates

  Rs/$ Rs/Euro Rs/GBP Rs100/JYP
RBI Rate 51.6520 69.5086 81.0575 66.5000
Future 51.7000 69.6575 81.1625 66.5850

Back home, the food inflation witnessed a sharp moderation to 8 per cent for the week ended November 19th as against 9.01per cent in the previous week ending November 12th. Inflation in the primary articles category also came down to 7.74 per cent during the week ending November 19, as against 9.08 per cent in the previous week.

Inflation in non-food articles, which includes fibers, oilseeds and minerals, was recorded at 2.14 per cent during the week under review, as against 4.05 per cent in the week ending November 12. However fuel and power inflation rose marginally and stood at 15.53 per cent during the week under review, compared to 15.49 per cent in the previous week.

Key Global Indicators

  Gold (Rs/10gm) Crude ($/bbl)
Spot 29275 109.5
% change - 0.13
Future 28850 100.11
% change -0.73 -0.09

Now, this cool-off in inflation coupled with growth moderating at 6.9 per cent in Q2, has given rise to speculation that the RBI might pause its hawkish monetary policy act in its next policy review scheduled on 16th Dec 2011.

In other macro news, it seems that the govt. is mulling the idea to hike the foreign direct investment (FDI) limit in distribution platforms from 49 per cent to 74 per cent. It will also moot for uniform FDI cap across various carriage platforms like DTH, IPTV, mobile TV, HITS and cable companies.

A draft note is currently being prepared by the Department of Industrial Policy and Promotion to be sent to various ministries for their comments and inputs. These include Information and Broadcasting Ministry and the Department of Telecommunications. 

We at DSIJ expect the markets to remain volatile for a large part of the day. We advice our readers to stay cautious and stick to cheaply available large cap bets as they are more likely to see some positive movements.


Stocks in Action

Tata Motors reported a 40.64per cent increase in its total vehicle sales during November, 2011, at 76,823 units as against 54,622 units in the same month last year. This was majorly due to an 81 per cent jump seen in the passenger vehicle segment which stood at 27,737 units in November this year against 15,340 units in the same month last year.

The country's largest car-maker Maruti Suzuki India witnessed its sales drop by 18.46per cent to 91,772 units as against 112,554 units sold in the same month last year. The company which has recently emerged from its recent worker’s strike related crisis saw both its exports and domestic car sales take a beating in the month of November 2011. While the exports recorded a drop of 11.43 per cent in sales as compared to last year same month, the domestic car sales fell by 19.15 per cent in comparison to last year’s figures.

Chennai-based two-wheeler maker TVS Motor Company reported an 11.78 per cent increase in its total vehicle sales in November at 175,535 units as against 157,041 units sold in the same month last year. While two wheeler sales grew by 12.31 per cent to 172,829 units from 153,882 units in the year-ago period, the three wheeler segment sales of the company went down by 14.34per cent to 2,706 units from 3,159 units in the same month of 2010.

The country's largest two-wheeler maker Hero MotoCorp has reported a 27.39 per cent jump in its sales to 536,772 units as against 421,366 units it sold in the corresponding month last year.

Cement maker ACC reported an over 5 per cent increase in sales for the month of November at 1.83 million tonne as against 1.74 million tonne cement sold in the same month last year. Production also rose to 1.83 million tonne in November this year compared to 1.76 million tonne in the corresponding month last year. The company’s cumulative sales during the January-November period of the current year stood at 21.59 million tonne over 19.24 million tonne in the year-ago period. Cumulative Production also grew to 21.63 million tonne as against 19.31 million tonne recorded in January-November period of the last year.

Auto major Mahindra & Mahindra's Farm Equipment Sector (FES) division has reported a 2.59 per cent fall in tractor sales to 17,527 units in November 2011 as against 17,993 units sold in the corresponding month last year. Domestic sales declined by 4.71 per cent on a yoy basis but the export sales rose by 32.81 per cent at the same time.

Auto division of Mahindra & Mahindra reported a 52.71 per cent rise in vehicle sales to 40,722 units in November, 2011 as against 26,666 units sold in the same month of 2010. Both the exports and domestic sales reported a robust 71 per cent and 52 per cent rise in sales on a yoy basis.

 

Corporate Action

BSE Institutional Turnover

 

 FII

 DII

Trade Date  Buy  Sales  Net  Buy  Sales  Net
1-Dec-11 2,422.63 1,735.37 687.26 907.86 1,620.94 -713.08
30-Nov-11 6,245.15 6,211.03 34.12 1,942.65 2,136.47 -193.82
29-Nov-11 1,937.89 2,258.76 -320.87 1,172.69 811.46 361.23
Dec , 11 2,422.63 1,735.37 687.26 907.86 1,620.94 -713.08

FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 01-Dec-2011

 

Buy

Sell

OI (End of day)

Net Position

  Rs (crore) Rs (crore) No. of contracts Rs (crore) Rs (crore)
Index Futures 2825.36 1789.48 548347 13389.71 1035.87
Index Options 14328.45 12768.93 1706130 42115.38 1559.53
Stock Futures 2048.07 1736.14 1107197 25097.99 311.93
Stock Options 329.86 313.78 27735 663.14 16.09
Total 19531.75 16608.33 3389409 81266.21 2923.42

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