Markets may open on a negative note
DSIJ Intelligence / 09 Dec 2011
Morning Update 09th Dec 2011
Opening Bias
The markets may open on a negative note in line with weak global cues. The SGX Nifty is trading down by 69 points at 4879 indicating a gap down opening for the markets today.
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Benchmark Indices | ||
| Index | Closing | % Change |
| SENSEX | 16488.24 | -2.30 |
| NIFTY | 4943.65 | -2.35 |
| Dow Jones | 11997.7 | -1.63 |
| S&P 500 | 1234.35 | -2.11 |
| NASDAQ | 2596.38 | -1.99 |
| Bovespa | 57455 | -2.06 |
| FTSE | 5483.77 | -1.14 |
| DAX | 5874.44 | -2.01 |
| CAC | 3095.49 | -2.53 |
| LIVE | ||
| Hang Seng | 18818.91 | -1.51 |
| Nikkei | 8541.58 | -1.42 |
| Shanghai | 2327.75 | -0.09 |
Overnight the US and other global markets fell sharply despite some positive news flows coming in from the ECB cutting down interest rates in the Euro zone to a record low of 1 per cent to counter recessionary threats and the US jobless claims falling to a nine month low. But global markets closed in the red as the ECB damped any speculation that it would step up govt. debt purchases in the Euro zone to help tackle the crisis.
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Currency Rates | ||||
| Rs/$ | Rs/Euro | Rs/GBP | Rs100/JYP | |
| RBI Rate | 51.7780 | 69.4246 | 81.3225 | 66.6900 |
| Future | 51.9425 | 69.5700 | 81.4800 | 67.1300 |
Back home, food inflation for the week ending November 26, fell sharply to 6.6 per cent as against 8 per cent in the previous week. The same was recorded at 8.93 per cent in the corresponding period last year. Inflation in the overall primary articles category stood at 6.92% during the week ending November 26, as against 7.74% in the previous week. Fuel inflation remained unchanged at 15.53 per cent. All eyes will be now on the headline inflation data and industrial output data expected next week. These numbers could provide the final cues on RBI’s possible stance in its policy review scheduled for 16th Dec 2011.
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Key Global Indicators | ||
| Gold (Rs/10gm) | Crude ($/bbl) | |
| Spot | 28861 | 108.01 |
| % change | - | 0.60 |
| Future | 29121 | 98.54 |
| % change | -0.43 | 0.20 |
In other developments, according to figures released by the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SAIM), domestic passenger car sales increased by 7 per cent to 171131 units in November, 2011, from 159939 units in the same month last year. At the same time commercial vehicle sales grew by 34.99 per cent to 66,264 units from 49,087 units in the year-ago period. As for two wheelers, sales grew by 25.27 per cent to 1163294 units last month from 928660 units in November, 2010. Total sales of vehicles across categories registered a jump of 22.22 per cent to 1489714 units in November from 1218885 units in the same month last year.
In conclusion, we at DSIJ expect the markets to remain negative. But the downside could be limited on some positive news flows on inflation and expectations of a pause in RBI's hawkish monetary policy stance. We advice our readers to stay cautious and adopt a wait and watch policy as the markets could turn volatile ahead of the crucial Euro zone meet this weekend and the build up to RBI's monetary policy review.
Stocks in Action
In what may bring some respite for new telecom service providers, who have been struggling to stay alive in a highly competitive industry, TRAI has given an assurance that it will come out with a solution to device an exit policy for such players. The exit policy will allow new players, who wish to quit the crowded Indian telecom industry to surrender their spectrum and licenses. Currently, a pan-India operator has to pay Rs 1,650 crore for a licence (along with the start-up spectrum of 4.4 Mhz) but has no option to surrender it and get their money back. Many new operators have either not launched services or have limited services available. The introduction of an exit policy will give some respite to these players.
After OVL showing keen interest in importing LNG from Russia, it’s time for Petronet LNG. Aaccording to govt. sources, it is believed that the company is on the brink of finalizing an agreement for sourcing liquefied natural gas from Russia under a pact with energy giant Gazprom. In fact in June, Gazprom had signed a preliminary deal with Petronet for the supply of 2.5 million tonnes of LNG annually. India is the world's eighth-largest importer of LNG and the widening gap between demand and supply could mean a potential five-fold increase in imports in the next decade.
Expect some action in realty stocks today as certain media reports suggest that the department of commerce and industry has allowed realty developers to sell their stake partly or fully to other promoters and firms, including foreign ones. In other words, foreign real estate players will now be able to own SEZs in India, even though there are restrictions on FDI in real estate.
Shares of Britannia should witness some action today as reports have come in that the company plans to ‘unlock value’ in its sprawling seven acres HQ in the city of Bangalore. In other words, the company plans to turn the property into a commercial and residential complex which could fetch a handsome value
Corporate Action
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BSE Institutional Turnover | ||||||
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FII |
DII | ||||
| Trade Date | Buy | Sales | Net | Buy | Sales | Net |
| 8-Dec-11 | 2,164.69 | 2,138.97 | 25.72 | 845.47 | 1,042.98 | -197.51 |
| 7-Dec-11 | 2,789.71 | 2,654.35 | 135.36 | 911.30 | 1,101.41 | -190.11 |
| 5-Dec-11 | 1,506.92 | 1,360.19 | 146.73 | 650.91 | 613.24 | 37.67 |
| Dec , 11 | 11,472.32 | 9,880.35 | 1,591.97 | 4,153.69 | 5,324.24 | -1,170.55 |
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FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 08-Dec-2011 | |||||
|
|
Buy |
Sell |
OI (End of day) |
Net Position | |
| Rs (crore) | Rs (crore) | No. of contracts | Rs (crore) | Rs (crore) | |
| Index Futures | 1687.71 | 2768.25 | 515868 | 12589.83 | -1080.55 |
| Index Options | 20221.05 | 20118.32 | 1887635 | 46656.92 | 102.73 |
| Stock Futures | 1167.41 | 1480.81 | 1120596 | 25546.71 | -313.40 |
| Stock Options | 455.95 | 456.62 | 30420 | 714.05 | -0.67 |
| Total | 23532.11 | 24824.00 | 3554519 | 85507.50 | -1291.89 |
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