Markets may open on a negative note

DSIJ Intelligence / 09 Dec 2011

But the downside could be limited on some positive news flows on inflation and expectations of a pause in RBI's hawkish monetary policy stance.

Morning Update 09th Dec 2011

Opening Bias

The markets may open on a negative note in line with weak global cues. The SGX Nifty is trading down by 69 points at 4879 indicating a gap down opening for the markets today.

Benchmark Indices

Index Closing % Change
SENSEX 16488.24 -2.30
NIFTY 4943.65 -2.35
Dow Jones 11997.7 -1.63
S&P 500 1234.35 -2.11
NASDAQ 2596.38 -1.99
Bovespa 57455 -2.06
FTSE 5483.77 -1.14
DAX 5874.44 -2.01
CAC 3095.49 -2.53
LIVE
Hang Seng 18818.91 -1.51
Nikkei 8541.58 -1.42
Shanghai 2327.75 -0.09

Overnight the US and other global markets fell sharply despite some positive news flows coming in from the ECB cutting down interest rates in the Euro zone to a record low of 1 per cent to counter recessionary threats and the US jobless claims falling to a nine month low. But global markets closed in the red as the ECB damped any speculation that it would step up govt. debt purchases in the Euro zone to help tackle the crisis.

Asian shares have also tanked heavily in early morning trades, even as the latest Chinese data suggests that inflationary pressures reduced sharply in the month of November amid falling food and commodity prices,. The consumer price index rose 4.2% sliding off from October's 5.5% increase.

Currency Rates

  Rs/$ Rs/Euro Rs/GBP Rs100/JYP
RBI Rate 51.7780 69.4246 81.3225 66.6900
Future 51.9425 69.5700 81.4800 67.1300

The Indian companies ADR’s traded in the American markets have closed on a negative note indicating a weak day ahead for them in the Indian markets. In the IT space, Wipro was up by 0.39 per cent, Patni was down by 0.87 per cent and Infosys was down over 4.33 per cent. In the Telecom space, MTNL was unchanged and Tata Communication was down 3.93 per cent. In the banking space, HDFC Bank was down 2.21 per cent and ICICI Bank was down 5.57 per cent. In other sectors, Tata Motors was down 3.99 per cent, Sterlite was down 5.36 per cent and Dr Reddy’s Laboratories was down 1.17 per cent.

Back home, food inflation for the week ending November 26, fell sharply to 6.6 per cent as against 8 per cent in the previous week. The same was recorded at 8.93 per cent in the corresponding period last year. Inflation in the overall primary articles category stood at 6.92% during the week ending November 26, as against 7.74% in the previous week. Fuel inflation remained unchanged at 15.53 per cent. All eyes will be now on the headline inflation data and industrial output data expected next week. These numbers could provide the final cues on RBI’s possible stance in its policy review scheduled for 16th Dec 2011.

Key Global Indicators

  Gold (Rs/10gm) Crude ($/bbl)
Spot 28861 108.01
% change - 0.60
Future 29121 98.54
% change -0.43 0.20

In other developments, according to figures released by the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SAIM), domestic passenger car sales increased by 7 per cent to 171131 units in November, 2011, from 159939 units in the same month last year. At the same time commercial vehicle sales grew by 34.99 per cent to 66,264 units from 49,087 units in the year-ago period. As for two wheelers, sales grew by 25.27 per cent to 1163294 units last month from 928660 units in November, 2010. Total sales of vehicles across categories registered a jump of 22.22 per cent to 1489714 units in November from 1218885 units in the same month last year.

In conclusion, we at DSIJ expect the markets to remain negative. But the downside could be limited on some positive news flows on inflation and expectations of a pause in RBI's hawkish monetary policy stance. We advice our readers to stay cautious and adopt a wait and watch policy as the markets could turn volatile ahead of the crucial Euro zone meet this weekend and the build up to RBI's monetary policy review.

Stocks in Action

According to certain media reports, the Mumbai service tax department has frozen some of the bank accounts of Kingfisher Airlines for non-payment of the levy to the tune of Rs 70 crore. This is the second time within a month that its account has been frozen by the department. The Kingfisher account was first frozen for two days in the first week of November and it was only after an assurance from the airline officials on depositing the dues in three installments, that the department lifted its order.

In what may bring some respite for new telecom service providers, who have been struggling to stay alive in a highly competitive industry, TRAI has given an assurance that it will come out with a solution to device an exit policy for such players. The exit policy will allow new players, who wish to quit the crowded Indian telecom industry to surrender their spectrum and licenses. Currently, a pan-India operator has to pay Rs 1,650 crore for a licence (along with the start-up spectrum of 4.4 Mhz) but has no option to surrender it and get their money back. Many new operators have either not launched services or have limited services available. The introduction of an exit policy will give some respite to these players.

After OVL showing keen interest in importing LNG from Russia, it’s time for Petronet LNG. Aaccording to govt. sources, it is believed that the company is on the brink of finalizing an agreement for sourcing liquefied natural gas from Russia under a pact with energy giant Gazprom. In fact in June, Gazprom had signed a preliminary deal with Petronet for the supply of 2.5 million tonnes of LNG annually. India is the world's eighth-largest importer of LNG and the widening gap between demand and supply could mean a potential five-fold increase in imports in the next decade.

Expect some action in realty stocks today as certain media reports suggest that the department of commerce and industry has allowed realty developers to sell their stake partly or fully to other promoters and firms, including foreign ones. In other words, foreign real estate players will now be able to own SEZs in India, even though there are restrictions on FDI in real estate.

Shares of Britannia should witness some action today as reports have come in that the company plans to ‘unlock value’ in its sprawling seven acres HQ in the city of Bangalore. In other words, the company plans to turn the property into a commercial and residential complex which could fetch a handsome value

Corporate Action

BSE Institutional Turnover

 

 FII

 DII

Trade Date  Buy  Sales  Net  Buy  Sales  Net
8-Dec-11 2,164.69 2,138.97 25.72 845.47 1,042.98 -197.51
7-Dec-11 2,789.71 2,654.35 135.36 911.30 1,101.41 -190.11
5-Dec-11 1,506.92 1,360.19 146.73 650.91 613.24 37.67
Dec , 11 11,472.32 9,880.35 1,591.97 4,153.69 5,324.24 -1,170.55

FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 08-Dec-2011

 

Buy

Sell

OI (End of day)

Net Position

  Rs (crore) Rs (crore) No. of contracts Rs (crore) Rs (crore)
Index Futures 1687.71 2768.25 515868 12589.83 -1080.55
Index Options 20221.05 20118.32 1887635 46656.92 102.73
Stock Futures 1167.41 1480.81 1120596 25546.71 -313.40
Stock Options 455.95 456.62 30420 714.05 -0.67
Total 23532.11 24824.00 3554519 85507.50 -1291.89

If you want to stay updated with the share market news today, keep a close watch on the indian stock market today with real time movements like sensex today live and overall stock market today trends. Investors tracking ipo allotment status, ipo news today, or the latest ipo india can also follow daily updates along with bse share price live data. Whether you are learning how to invest in stock market in india, preparing for a market crash today, or searching for the best stocks to buy in india, insights on top gainers today india, top losers today india, trending stocks india and long term stocks india help in making informed investment decisions.