Market turn positive this week

DSIJ Intelligence / 24 Dec 2011

The markets have turned positive this week putting an end to its two week loosing streak where we saw the markets shed more than 8-9 per cent of its value over a number of domestic and global macro economic concerns.

Review of the Week ended 23rd Dec 2011.

The markets have turned positive this week putting an end to its two week loosing streak where we saw the markets shed more than 8-9 per cent of its value over a number of domestic and global macro economic concerns. The week started off on a negative note with negative flows coming in from North Korea over concerns raised by the sudden death of its leader and fears of its ill-effects on the region. However mid-week, a positive set of inflation internals for the week ended Dec 10 showing some significant signs of easing and a upgrade of our currency debt rating to investment grade with stable outlook by Moody’s Investor Services, led to a turnaround in market sentiments, which helped power a strong 500 point rally. In the end though there was a bit of volatility witnessed towards the end of the week, the markets still managed to close on a positive note.

Benchmark Indices

Index 16-Dec-11 23-Dec-11 % Change
SENSEX 15491.35 15738.36 1.59
NIFTY 4651.6 4714 1.34
Hang Seng 18285.4 18629.17 1.88
Nikkei 8401.72 8395.16 -0.08
Shanghai 2224.84 2204.78 -0.90
Dow Jones* 11868.8 12169.65 2.53
S&P 500* 1215.75 1254 3.15
NASDAQ* 2541.01 2599.45 2.30
Bovespa* 56331.1 57347.95 1.81
FTSE* 5430.43 5477.28 0.86
DAX* 5729.54 5868.57 2.43
CAC* 2991.74 3100.67 3.64
* closing till Thursday

The easing off in food inflation for week ended Dec 10 to 1.8 per cent as against 4.35 per cent in the previous week brought some much needed cheer to the markets. This cool off was on the back of a decline in the prices of essential items like vegetables, onion, potato and wheat. The Primary articles inflation also eased off to 3.78 per cent for Dec 10 as against 5.48 per cent in the previous week. Now this set of latest inflation data showing clear signs of easing out spells out some optimistic expectations of a cut back in rates by the RBI going forward.

On the global front, the US markets witnessed a great run for the week as equities extended their rally after a string of unexpectedly strong economic data. Investors cited recent improvement in U.S. economic data and seasonal factors behind the move, while a deal to extend the payroll-tax cut for two months added to the enthusiasm.

Key Global Indicators

Index 16-Dec-11 23-Dec-11 % Change
Gold 27455 27778 1.18
Silver 53616 53248 -0.69
Crude Oil (Brent) 103.79 109.08 5.10
Crude Oil (Nymex) 94.04 99.83 6.16

Global commodities also saw some action this week as oil futures bounced back by around 6 per cent on the back of some renewed buying and concerns of supply shortage. Gold futures also gained nearly 2 per cent this week.
 
Back home, the rupee seems to have put a stop to its highly volatile movements seen in the previous weeks, after some much needed intervention by the RBI by introducing some corrective measures to restrict speculative trading. FII net investments in equity markets have been in the negative zone at Rs (1218) crore for this week after flagging off the month of December on a positive note. The Dec 2011 FII net investments now stands at negative Rs 1602 crore.

Currency Rate

Index 16-Dec-11 23-Dec-11 % Change
USD 52.78 52.82 0.08
EURO 68.76 69.05 0.42
GBP 82.10 82.71 0.74
JYP (per 100) 67.82 67.53 -0.43

Moving on, among the sectorial indices, the oil & gas, FMCG and Auto were the top three gainers, while the Capital Goods, Metals and Realty were the top three losers. Metal stocks declined on worries that global economic slowdown could crimp demand. Jindal Steel & Power was down 5.87%, Tata Steel was down 4.85% and Hindalco Industries was down 3.07%. But, Sterlite Industries gained 2.4% on bargain hunting after a recent sharp slide. The stock has slumped 50% so far this year. India's largest oil & gas exploration firm by sales ONGC jumped 4.58%.

Sectoral Indices

Category/Index 16-Dec-11 23-Dec-11 Change (%)
Broad
MIDCAP 5,277.27 5182.63 -1.79
SMLCAP 5,688.39 5613.72 -1.31
BSE-100 8,011.09 8076.26 0.81
BSE-200 1,874.10 1884.44 0.55
BSE-500 5,855.86 5877.17 0.36
Sectors
OIL&GAS 7,676.21 7,931.10 3.32
FMCG 3,961.27 4,091.48 3.29
AUTO 8,106.88 8,280.47 2.14
CD 5,226.36 5,330.98 2.00
BANKEX 9,420.85 9,516.72 1.02
POWER 1,811.14 1,812.44 0.07
PSU 6,429.30 6,423.44 -0.09
HC 5,873.19 5,861.49 -0.20
IT 5,712.42 5,682.73 -0.52
TECk 3,355.57 3,328.99 -0.79
REALTY 1,447.43 1,427.57 -1.37
METAL 9,682.99 9,524.40 -1.64
CG 8,427.17 8,158.74 -3.19

Interest rate sensitive, BANKEX edged higher after data released on Thursday showed inflation eased, cementing expectations of a steady easing in overall price pressures. ICICI Bank rose 6.79%, HDFC Bank gained 5.2%, however State bank of India (SBI) fell 1.91%. RBI has recently relaxed some restrictions on borrowing by banks from it, in another move aimed at easing the cash crunch in the banking system.

Top Gainers

Scrip CMP % Change (WoW)
Lanco Infra 9.84 11.44
GujFlourchem 385.7 10.33
Sun TV 292 9.5
Renuka Sugar 26 9.19
Sintex Inds 68.15 8.17
HIND COPPER 174.2 7.73
SAIL 80.1 7.3
Tata Motors  185 7.2
OptoCircuits 209 6.9
ICICI Bank 721.95 6.79

Top Losers

Scrip CMP % Change (WoW)
SyndicateBan 74.1 -16.79
ALLAHA.BANK 119.5 -15.67
Rural Electr 147.85 -14.78
Uco Bank 49.4 -14.38
Shriram Trns 445.05 -13.67
WockhardtLtd 289.65 -13.60
Jet Airways 180.25 -11.90
PFC 133.1 -11.50
JainIrrigatn 81.45 -11.18
Canara Bank 363.05 -10.86

Among the prominent losers, were the some public sector banks like UCO, Syndicate, Allahabad and Canara bank as investors expect the Dec quarter to be a weal one for PSU banks judging by the advance tax indicators. Sintex Industries was one among the top gainers for the week over so renewed buying interest shown by investors after beating it down by 32 per cent last week.

In conclusion, we expect the coming week to be highly volatile as investors and traders get ready for the December month end expiry. There are also some concerns surrounding the final outcome of the Lokpal bill for which the parliament closing date has been extended to 29th. FII’s will closely watch this development. One may also expect cement and auto stocks to be in action as they are expected to release their monthly figures by Jan 1st 2012. Also expect investors, traders and institutions to build on some expectations on what to expect in December quarter results.

Volumes (Rs.cr)

Date BSE NSE
19-Dec 1844 9868
20-Dec 1908 9590
21-Dec 1931 9889
22-Dec 2039 9551
23-Dec 1798 7870

Institutional Turnover

Date FII DII
19-Dec -396 -64
20-Dec -526 187
21-Dec -144 -133
22-Dec -236 230
23-Dec 84.27 -79
Total -1217.73 141

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