Markets may track the stellar performance of US bourses

DSIJ Intelligence / 04 Jan 2012

U.S. stocks celebrated their start of a new trading year with gains of about 1.5 per cent after U.S. manufacturing hit a six-month high.

Morning Update 04thJan 2012

Opening Bias

The markets are likely to open on a positive note today tracking higher cues from yesterday’s stellar performance. The SGX Nifty is trading up by 12 points at 41,789, indicating a gap up opening to the markets today.

Benchmark Indices

Index Closing % Change
SENSEX 15939.36 2.72
NIFTY 4765.30 2.77
Dow Jones 12397.38 1.47
S&P 500 1277.06 1.55
NASDAQ 2648.72 1.67
Bovespa 59264.90 2.48
FTSE 5699.91 2.29
DAX 6166.57 1.50
CAC 3245.4 0.72
LIVE
Hang Seng 18847.11 -0.16
Nikkei 8565.16 1.30
Shanghai 2208.45 0.41

The global cues have also been strong overnight, indicating a good day ahead for the Indian markets. The US stocks celebrated their start of a new trading year with gains of about 1.5 per cent after a gauge of US manufacturing hit a six-month high, adding to the cheer that began with solid data from overseas. Moreover, resilience in the manufacturing sector and a surprise drop in German unemployment lifted the European stocks. The Asian shares are seen trading on a positive note in early trades, tracking their global peers, with Australian shares going strong as miners rallied on strong global economic data.

Currency Rates

  Rs/$ Rs/Euro Rs/GBP Rs100/JYP
RBI Rate 53.2288 69.1265 82.8666 69.3500
Future 53.4850 69.8200 83.5325 69.6050

Back home, with a view to enable promoters to sell a part of their holdings, capital market regulator SEBI, yesterday, passed a decision to allow the auctioning of shares and securities on the bourses and introduced new methods and guidelines for QIPs.

As per the auctioning route, a special window would be created and the same can be used by promoter stakeholders to sell at least 1 per cent of the paid-up capital of a company. This will be similar to the block-deal mechanism for secondary stock market transactions, but with lesser restrictions. Under the institutional placement program (IPP), shares can be sold only to qualified institutional buyers. Exchanges will provide a separate window for the offer for sale of shares which will co-exist with the normal trading hours. But, promoter or promoter group of companies will not be allowed to bid for the shares. Every bid order would be required to be backed by 100 per cent upfront cash margin.

Key Global Indicators

  Gold (Rs/10gm) Crude ($/bbl)
Spot 27200 111.77
% change - -0.02
Future 27655 102.85
% change 0.22 -0.11

Allotment will be done either on price priority or clearing price basis proportionately and would be overseen by the exchanges. SEBI also said that the auction method can only be used by the promoters of the top 100 companies based on average market capitalisation for sale of their stakes. This move is also set to benefit the government’s flamboyant disinvestment plan, which currently lies in shatters. Due to weak market conditions the government has been forced to defer its share sale of state-owned companies like ONGC, IOC and SAIL. The government has so far been able to raise only Rs 1,145 crore through the sale of its shares in Power Finance Corporation against a divestment target of Rs 40,000 crore by March.

In conclusion, we expect the markets to remain positive with some volatility towards the latter part of the day as investors are still jittery to enter the markets and prefer to wait and watch the Q3 numbers before taking an investment call. We advise our readers to stay cautious and stick to cheaply available large-cap bets as they are more likely to see some positive movements.

Stocks In Action

According to Economic Times, the Maharashtra state assembly has increased the maximum electricity duty payable to 150 paise per unit from 40 paise, putting further cost pressure on the companies which are already feeling the heat from rising costs and slowing demand. Expect some negative action in scrips of companies like Reliance Industries, JSW Steel, Ultra Tech Cement and ACC, which own large captive power units in the state and would now have to shell out more for power generated from their units.

Expect some negative action in the scrip of Tanfac Industries as its plant located at Cuddalore suffered severely due to the recent cyclonic storm in southern India. There were extensive damages to its plant and machinery and it has temporarily been shut down.

According to sources, the telecom ministry will raise a demand of over Rs 1,590 crore from five telecom firms viz. Tatas, Vodafone, Reliance Communications (RCom), Bharti Airtel and Idea Cellular for under-reporting revenues, as per a special audit report, for the assessment years starting from 2006 to 2008. The DoT will send show-cause notices to these operators in this regard. The telecom ministry has arrived at a figure of Rs 550 crore due from RCom, Rs 393 crore from Tata Teleservices and Tata Communications while Vodafone has to pay Rs 245 crore, Bharti Airtel has to pay Rs 292 crore and Idea has to shell out Rs 113 crore, according to sources. The Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI) in 2009 had asked the DoT to conduct a special audit of the financial accounts of these five telecom companies for the 2006-08 period, observing that the operators were misreporting their revenues to avoid payment of license fee to the government through revenue share. Expect some negative action in the telecom packs today.

According to Business Standard, Adani Power has been shortlisted to develop four overseas projects in Kosovo, South Africa and Nigeria worth nearly Rs 19,000 crore with total capacity of 3,792 MW. In Kosovo the company has bid to develop a new re-power plant, a 600 MW project that can be increased to 1,200 MW. The company is also in the race for developing a 600 MW plant in South Africa, besides two other projects in Nigeria, having a total capacity of 1,992 MW. A leading thermal power producer, Adani Power currently has an installed capacity of 3,330 MW and intends to ramp it up to 20,000 MW by 2020. This is a positive development for the counter.

According to sources, Hindustan Zinc has decided to cut zinc prices by Rs 800 per tonne to Rs 1,14,500 and has also reduced lead prices by Rs 1,300 per tonne to Rs 1,22,600. This is negative news for the stock as a cut-down in prices indicates a downward revision of revenue visibility going forward.

According to Reuters, Bajaj Auto launched its first-ever four-wheeled vehicle yesterday, saying the RE60 would target commercial users and three-wheeled vehicle owners in India, and that the production could involve Nissan and Renault. The unveiling of the four-seater RE60 ended months of rumours that have buzzed around India’s auto industry on the nature of the vehicle, which promises low carbon emissions and fuel efficiency. The RE60 will be manufactured in Bajaj’s plant in Aurangabad in western India, and will be made available to customers in the next few months. In wake of the heavy beating down that the shares of Bajaj Auto received on the bourses due to its lower than expected monthly sales number, this news of a four-wheeler launch will work as a positive platform for the stock today.

According to Economic Times, its is believed that the Adani Group and state-run oil companies like OIL and GSPC have signed confidentiality agreements to bid for the controlling stake of the BG Group in India’s biggest private sector city gas distribution venture Gujarat Gas Co (GGCL). The BG Group is aiming to sell off its entire 65.12 per cent stake in GGCL. This has led to an erosion of the company’s market capitalisation on the bourses over the past few months. The company has also been suffering on account of the rising dollar against the rupee and high LNG prices. However, this stake sale development presents a great investment opportunity and we advise readers to give it another positive look. Expect some positive action in the scrip of GGCL today.

Corporate Action

BSE Institutional Turnover

 

 FII

 DII

Trade Date  Buy  Sales  Net  Buy  Sales  Net
3-Jan-12 1,356.89 1,101.50 255.39 988.27 781.76 206.51
2-Jan-12 458.53 552.40 -93.87 579.04 494.70 84.34
30-Dec-11 969.10 1,147.25 -178.15 853.68 587.08 266.60
Jan , 12 1,815.42 1,653.90 161.52 1,567.31 1,276.46 290.85

FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 03-Jan-2012

 

Buy

Sell

OI (End of day)

Net Position

  Rs (crore) Rs (crore) No. of contracts Rs (crore) Rs (crore)
Index Futures 1909.16 1143.23 430541 10132.65 765.93
Index Options 8998.52 8963.42 1041041 24769.84 35.10
Stock Futures 1246.08 872.66 986183 23454.03 373.42
Stock Options 377.78 386.97 31521 791.29 -9.19
Total 12531.55 11366.28 2489286 59147.81 1165.27

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