Markets in positive, IT dims over weak dollar revenue outlook
Shrikant / 14 Jan 2012
The markets have extended last week’s positive gains and have ended a second consecutive week in the green zone. This week’s gains were majorly led by positive developments from the domestic front and supported by an overall optimistic global scenario.
The markets have extended last week’s positive gains and have ended for a second consecutive week in the green zone. This week’s gains were majorly led by positive developments on the domestic front and supported by an overall optimistic global scenario.
| Benchmark Indices | |||
| Index | 6-Jan-12 | 13-Jan-12 | % Change |
| SENSEX | 15,867.73 | 16,154.62 | 1.81 |
| NIFTY | 4,754.10 | 4,866.00 | 2.35 |
| Hang Seng | 18,593.06 | 19,178.52 | 3.15 |
| Nikkei | 8,390.35 | 8,500.02 | 1.31 |
| Shanghai | 2,266.53 | 2,244.58 | -0.97 |
| Dow Jones* | 12415.70 | 12471.00 | 0.45 |
| S&P 500* | 1281.06 | 1295.50 | 1.13 |
| NASDAQ* | 2669.86 | 2724.70 | 2.05 |
| Bovespa* | 58546.10 | 59920.80 | 2.35 |
| FTSE* | 5624.26 | 5662.42 | 0.68 |
| DAX* | 6095.99 | 6179.21 | 1.37 |
| CAC* | 3144.91 | 3199.98 | 1.75 |
| * closing till Thursday | |||
The week was flagged off by an upgrade of India by Moody’s which helped buoy the markets. Though there weren’t any major gains seen on the bourses during the week, it surely gave a feeling that the markets have started giving a premium to positive news’ flows and the overall sentiment also looked upbeat.
On Thursday the November IIP figures were announced which beat the market expectations and stayed in positive territory at 5.9 per cent vis-a-vis negative 4.74 in October. This is a very good sign for the economy which looked like losing its growth momentum after the RBI started tightening the monitory policy. All the nine sectors constituting the IIP data performed better in November as compared to October.
Due to the growth in food supply in winter, food inflation has stayed in the negative in the last week of December. The rate was seen at negative 2.9 per cent as compared to negative 3.36 per cent in the previous week in December. The RBI has taken stringent steps to curb inflation in the country which as of November stood at 9.11 per cent. Going forward, judging by the way the inflation numbers have eased off over the past few months, we expect headline inflation for December at 7.71 per cent.
On the global front, markets remained quite volatile for the week. However, they have also ended the week on a positive note. During the week all the indices reacted invariably over the news from the US and Europe. The markets gained momentum in the last two days after data showed that investors had gained business confidence. Investors also gained some respite while markets in Asia as well as Europe posted some good numbers over the news that Italy and Spain were able to auction their bonds at lower borrowing costs.
| Key Global Indicators | |||
| Index | 6-Jan-12 | 13-Jan-12 | % Change |
| Gold | 27841 | 27,525.00 | -1.14 |
| Silver | 52575 | 52,333.00 | -0.46 |
| Crude Oil (Brent) | 113.14 | 110.5 | -2.33 |
| Crude Oil (Nymex) | 102.27 | 99.43 | -2.78 |
Global commodities have also seen some cooling off in the gold and silver prices. The rupee has further regained some of its lost value in this week while the FII net investments in equity markets stood at Rs 1,226 crore for this week which has been increasing from the start of the seven-day period. Crude oil has also slipped below the USD 100 mark in this week over the Iranian geo-political crisis. This price movement towards the south however would be curtailed if Nigeria cuts its exports.
| Currency Rate | |||
| Index | 6-Jan-12 | 13-Jan-12 | % Change |
| USD | 53.00 | 51.43 | -2.96 |
| EURO | 67.88 | 66.17 | -2.51 |
| GBP | 82.17 | 79.10 | -3.73 |
| JYP (per 100) | 68.70 | 67.05 | -2.40 |
Moving on to the domestic front, the benchmark Sensex surged by 1.81 per cent over the last week. Nifty also saw good movement and closed with 2.35 per cent weekly gains. The Indian markets were largely affected by the dollar revenue outlook announced by Infosys. The IT giant reported its quarterly result on Thursday wherein it reported a rise of 33 per cent in its net revenues on the back of the depreciating rupee. The company has also reduced the dollar revenues’ forecast over macro economic concerns. The stock tumbled by more than 8 per cent on Thursday itself. Due to the lower dollar revenues’ forecast, the IT and technology indices underperformed the broader market for the whole week. Other index heavyweight IT stocks such as TCS and Wipro were also seen slipping down in value.
| Sectoral Indices | |||
| Category/Index | 6-Jan-12 | 13-Jan-12 | Change (%) |
| Broad | |||
| MIDCAP | 5,259.24 | 5,582.34 | 6.14 |
| SMLCAP | 5,704.32 | 6,171.75 | 8.19 |
| BSE-100 | 8,141.59 | 8,384.37 | 2.98 |
| BSE-200 | 1,901.81 | 1,964.91 | 3.32 |
| BSE-500 | 5,934.40 | 6,146.50 | 3.57 |
| Sectors | |||
| REALTY | 1,388.61 | 1,581.78 | 13.91 |
| METAL | 9,775.19 | 10,756.45 | 10.04 |
| POWER | 1,837.73 | 2,000.99 | 8.88 |
| CG | 8,546.71 | 9,297.00 | 8.78 |
| PSU | 6,675.88 | 7,082.83 | 6.10 |
| BANKEX | 9,736.04 | 10,300.49 | 5.80 |
| CD | 5,379.17 | 5,606.48 | 4.23 |
| AUTO | 8,174.39 | 8,465.96 | 3.57 |
| HC | 5,971.04 | 6,127.56 | 2.62 |
| OIL&GAS | 7,688.49 | 7,821.77 | 1.73 |
| FMCG | 4,032.07 | 4,071.65 | 0.98 |
| TECk | 3,427.78 | 3,280.20 | -4.31 |
| IT | 5,878.21 | 5,482.36 | -6.73 |
Among the sectoral indices, interest rate-sensitive realty index went up by 13.91 per cent. The metal and power indices also rose by 10.04 and 8.88 per cent respectively, backed by the positive IIP numbers. The power stocks increased in value over the last two days of trading and on its back the the capital goods index also surged by 8.78 per cent. The Bankex increased by 5.80 per cent. The quarterly result of IndusInd Bank and HDFC also were seen supporting the banking index.
| Top Gainers | ||
| Scrip | CMP | % Change (WoW) |
| Lanco Infr | 14.82 | 40.87 |
| IspatIndus | 12.37 | 29.94 |
| GMR Infra | 29.3 | 29.65 |
| WockhardtL | 336.65 | 28.86 |
| Renuka Sug | 33.1 | 28.54 |
| HDIL | 72.55 | 27.73 |
| Adani Powe | 80.7 | 25.02 |
| Suzlon | 22.45 | 23.35 |
| Reliance P | 89.3 | 21.66 |
| UNITECH | 24.4 | 21.39 |
Among the individual stocks, companies associated with power business saw a very good week. The scrips of Lanco Infra, GMR Infra, Adani Power, Suzlon Energy, Reliance Power, etc appreciated between 21 – 40 per cent.
| Top Losers | ||
| Scrip | CMP | % Change (WoW) |
| TTK Presti | 2266 | -10.23 |
| Indrapra G | 348.9 | -9.69 |
| InfosysTec | 2585.55 | -8.66 |
| TCS | 1086.6 | -7.2 |
| CoromndlFe | 263.15 | -6.67 |
| Nestle | 3942.45 | -4.85 |
| HCLTECHNOL | 399 | -4.43 |
| ColgatePal | 941.75 | -4.04 |
| Lupin | 428.95 | -3.08 |
| GAIL | 373.45 | -2.42 |
The next two weeks will be very decisive for the Indian equity markets. We will see the quarterly results of many companies that will also give some indication of the further growth of equities. Besides, the inflation data will provide a hint about whether the RBI will pitch for a rate cut in its monitory review. In conclusion, we expect the next week to take cues largely from the domestic scenario. Any good news about the European debt crisis will have a positive impact on the markets.
| Volumes (Rs.cr) | ||
| Date | BSE | NSE |
| 9-Jan-12 | 1986 | 8376 |
| 10-Jan-12 | 2555 | 11012 |
| 11-Jan-12 | 2621 | 11716 |
| 12-Jan-12 | 2596 | 12347 |
| 13-Jan-12 | 2725 | 12075 |
| Institutional Turnover | ||
| Date | FII | DII |
| 9-Jan-12 | -36 | 29 |
| 10-Jan-12 | 324 | -115 |
| 11-Jan-12 | 431 | -182 |
| 12-Jan-12 | 507 | -997 |
| Total | 1226 | -1265 |
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