Markets close positive for 3rd successive week

Shrikant / 20 Jan 2012

The markets have continued on their strong and positive path for the 3rd week running, with the Sensex rallying by a hefty 7.69% on a YTD basis. This has put the Indian markets amongst the top 5 performing global indices this year.

The markets have continued on their strong and positive path for the 3rd week running, with the Sensex rallying by a hefty 7.69% on a YTD basis. This has put the Indian markets amongst the top 5 performing global indices this year.

In fact, it’s not just the Large-Caps that have done well, but the broader markets indices like the Mid-Caps and Small-Caps have also played their part in creating wealth for investors.



The week was flagged off on a steady note, with the Dec WPI inflation falling sharply to 7.47% as compared to 9.11% in Nov 2011. This recent fall in inflation, coupled with the ease in the overall weekly inflation trends over the past 2 months, provides the Central Bank with sufficient headroom to consider a reversal in interest rates or cut back the CRR in its next week’s policy review.

Top Gainers
Scrip CMP % Change (WoW)
Adani Enterprises  405.25 25.7
Pantaloon  178.15 19.48
Mundra Port 156 18.15
REL 480 16.54
Indiabulls 182.6 15.17
IB Real Estate 63.95 14.2
Maruti Suzuki 1099.1 12.57
Unitech 27 11.89
IRB Infra 162 11.58
IDFC 120.45 11.07

Top Losers
Scrip CMP % Change (WoW)
Essar Oils 51.95 -16.01
MMTC 846.55 -11.13
Indraprastha Gas 316.55 -9.27
Dish TV 59.85 -8.56
GMR Infra 27.3 -6.83
Aurobindo Pharma 100.1 -6.71
Educomp Solutions 205.1 -5.90
Hind Copper 277.7 -5.80
MOIL Ltd 250.1 -5.14
Mah & Mah 656.4 -5.14

Moving on, a good set of corporate numbers for IT giants like TCS, HCL Tech and Wipro, which was very much unlike the pessimistic earnings of Infosys, also buoyed the markets. All 3 companies' managements sounded positive and expected a good business environment going forward. Two-wheeler players like Bajaj Auto and Hero MotoCorp also witnessed excellent sets of Q3 earnings led by good volume growth.
Sectoral Indices
Category/Index 13-Jan-12 20-Jan-12 Change (%)
Broad
MIDCAP 5,582.34 5,680.07 1.75
SMLCAP 6,171.75 6,277.27 1.71
BSE-100 8,384.37 8,698.13 3.74
BSE-200 1,964.91 2,031.36 3.38
BSE-500 6,146.50 6,344.09 3.21
Sectors
REALTY 1,581.78 1,707.79 7.97
OIL&GAS 7,821.77 8,325.02 6.43
BANKEX 10,300.49 10,912.15 5.94
CG 9,297.00 9,806.95 5.49
AUTO 8,465.96 8,818.88 4.17
METAL 10,756.45 11,197.64 4.10
POWER 2,000.99 2,077.69 3.83
CD 5,606.48 5,801.31 3.48
PSU 7,082.83 7,226.93 2.03
HC 6,127.56 6,168.70 0.67
TECk 3,280.20 3,293.05 0.39
IT 5,482.36 5,499.91 0.32
FMCG 4,071.65 4,035.07 -0.90

On the global front, European markets flagged of the week on a negative note, as S&P downgraded France and other countries in the zone. However, mid-week the global markets picked up momentum on the back of some positive corporate earnings reported in the US. Further strengthening of the economic data there too helped improve sentiments. Finally, the ability of Greece to initiate a positive dialogue with its private lenders to resolve the debt issue provided some impetus.

Benchmark Indices
Index 13-Jan-12 20-Jan-12 % Change
Sensex 16154.62 16739.01 3.62
Nifty 4866.00 5048.60 3.75
Hang Seng 19178.52 20110.37 4.86
Nikkei 8500.02 8766.36 3.13
Shanghai 2244.58 2319.12 3.32
Dow Jones* 12471.00 12623.98 1.23
S&P 500* 1295.50 1314.50 1.47
NASDAQ* 2724.70 2788.33 2.34
Bovespa* 59920.80 61926.70 3.35
FTSE* 5662.42 5741.15 1.39
DAX* 6179.21 6416.26 3.84
CAC* 3199.98 3328.94 4.03

Among the highlights of this week has also been the strengthening of the Indian rupee against the USD, gaining good ground of nearly 2%. This has majorly been on the back of some positive inflows from the FIIs and risk averse investors who have begun to show faith in India and returned to buy into debt funds, bonds and equities here. The rupee is expected to gain further, since the demand for the dollar may subside after the duty on precious metals’ imports was nearly doubled yesterday. At present the rupee is up by 6% this year and 6.6% from its lifetime low of Rs 54.30 per dollar touched on Dec 15, 2011. As a result of the positive inflows this week, FII net investments in equity now stand at Rs 3178 cr for week ended Jan 20, 2012.

Currency Rate
Index 13-Jan-12 20-Jan-12 % Change
USD 51.43 50.47 -1.87
EURO 66.17 65.23 -1.43
GBP 79.10 78.04 -1.34
JYP (per 100) 67.05 65.39 -2.48

Moving back to the domestic turf, the interest rate-sensitive Realty index was amongst top gainers for another consecutive week, up by 8%. Oil & Gas sector also did well with 6.5% gains, as the appreciating rupee helped OMCs to roll back on their under-recoveries to some extent. Bankex did well on back of expectations that the RBI will initiate a reversal in interest rate cycle. A fall in bond yields also helped to buoy them.

Key Global Indicators
Index 13-Jan-12 20-Jan-12 % Change
Gold 27525 27295 -0.84
Silver 52333 53413 2.06
Crude Oil (Brent) 110.5 111.12 0.56
Crude Oil (Nymex) 99.43 99.83 0.40

In individual stocks, infra and realty companies saw the maximum gains this week. Amongst the top gainers were IB Real Estate, Unitech, IRB Infra and Mundra Port. Sensex stock Maruti was also among the top gainers on the back of some positive news flows. The top losers list was led by Essar Oil, which has been directed by the Supreme Court to pay a hefty penalty of Rs 6300 cr to the govt. for a delay in the start up of its refinery project.

Volumes (Rs.cr)
Date BSE NSE
16-Jan-12 2093 9499
17-Jan-12 2684 12180
18-Jan-12 2485 12187
19-Jan-12 2509 11634

The start of the year has been very positive for the markets. Investors have seen an all-round wealth creation. The next week will be very volatile leading to the RBI’s policy review and expiry of the Jan series of F&O contracts. We will see the quarterly results of many companies that will also give some indication of the further growth of the equities. In conclusion, we advise our reader to book some profits, and to adopt wait and watch strategy ahead of the RBI's policy review.

Institutional Turnover
Date FII DII
16-Jan-12 650 -230
17-Jan-12 1026 -429
18-Jan-12 876 -590
19-Jan-12 626 -247

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