Market End Negative For 2nd Consecutive Week
DSIJ Intelligence / 02 Mar 2012
For the second consecutive week, the markets have yielded negative returns as the SENSEX plunged down by a 1.6 per cent.
For the second consecutive week, the markets have yielded negative returns as the SENSEX plunged down by a 1.6 per cent. However the broader market indices like the small cap and mid cap indices showed a better performance as the rate of fall was less in them. In fact the midcap index was up by 0.72 per cent for the week.
| Benchmark Indices | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Index | 24-Feb-12 | 2-Mar-12 | % Change |
| SENSEX | 17923.57 | 17636.80 | -1.60 |
| NIFTY | 5429.30 | 5359.35 | -1.29 |
| Hang Seng | 21406.86 | 21562.26 | 0.73 |
| Nikkei | 9647.38 | 9777.03 | 1.34 |
| Shanghai | 2439.63 | 2460.69 | 0.86 |
| Dow Jones* | 12982.95 | 12980.30 | -0.02 |
| S&P 500* | 1365.74 | 1374.09 | 0.61 |
| NASDAQ* | 2963.75 | 2988.97 | 0.85 |
| Bovespa* | 65942.70 | 66809.80 | 1.31 |
| FTSE* | 5935.13 | 5931.25 | -0.07 |
| DAX* | 6864.43 | 6941.77 | 1.13 |
| CAC* | 3467.03 | 3499.73 | 0.94 |
| * closing till Thursday | |||
The major reason for the downhill movement by the SENSEX this week can be attributed to the slowdown in GDP growth for Q3 coupled with the ONGC flop show which seems to have been heavily shunned by investors on the street.
After witnessing a decline in GDP growth to 6.9% during the second quarter it was expected that the third quarter too will remain somewhat in the similar lines with consensus expecting economy to grow at 6.4%. However the numbers have come below the expectations. The sluggish macroeconomic environment, high interest rate regime by RBI has led India’s GDP growth rate to slip further to 6.1 per cent in the third quarter of the fiscal vs. that of 8.3% in corresponding quarter previous year (7.7 per cent in Q1). This is the slowest pace at which GDP has grown in last two years.
On the global front, most markets had a very choppy and mixed week. While Bovespa index rallied by 1.3 per cent showing that the sentiments in the South American region was improving, Dow Jones also briefly crossed the 13000 mark during the week. Amongst major global developments, European banks grabbed a larger-than-expected 529.5 billion Euros ($713.4 billion) in cheap loans as the European Central Bank conducted its second and possibly last three-year long-term refinancing operation.
| Key Global Indicators | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Index | 24-Feb-12 | 2-Mar-12 | % Change |
| Gold | 28678 | 28027 | -2.27 |
| Silver | 58467 | 58702 | 0.40 |
| Crude Oil (Brent) | 125.07 | 124.91 | -0.13 |
| Crude Oil (Nymex) | 109.62 | 108.22 | -1.28 |
The global oil prices have also witnessed some heavy volatility in recent times as Nymex (futures) crude oil suddenly found some interest in the eyes of investors and rallied by 12 per cent in the month of February. However, for the current week it fell back by 1 per cent. Gold gave up its gains this week as it plunged down by 2 per cent after Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke gave no hints for a third round of quantitative easing.
| Currency Rate | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Index | 24-Feb-12 | 2-Mar-12 | % Change |
| USD | 48.96 | 49.50 | 1.10 |
| EURO | 65.63 | 65.59 | -0.06 |
| GBP | 77.40 | 78.82 | 1.83 |
| JYP (per 100) | 60.79 | 60.75 | -0.06 |
Back home, among the sectoral indices, the Realty sector was yet again among the top losers as it tumbled down heavily this week by 4 per cent to top the losers chart. IT, Capital Goods, Auto and FMCG were among the other losing indices this week. Health Care was however positive by more than 2 per cent.
| Sectoral Indices | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Category/Index | 24-Feb-12 | 2-Mar-12 | Change (%) |
| Broad | |||
| MIDCAP | 6,300.07 | 6,345.43 | 0.72 |
| SMLCAP | 6,857.04 | 6,827.66 | -0.43 |
| BSE-100 | 9,369.95 | 9,276.40 | -1.00 |
| BSE-200 | 2,197.69 | 2,179.82 | -0.81 |
| BSE-500 | 6,871.91 | 6,821.64 | -0.73 |
| Sectors | |||
| REALTY | 1,928.46 | 1,845.98 | -4.28 |
| IT | 6,309.02 | 6,103.00 | -3.27 |
| CG | 10,560.97 | 10,317.12 | -2.31 |
| TECk | 3,681.78 | 3,604.80 | -2.09 |
| AUTO | 10,033.24 | 9,875.78 | -1.57 |
| FMCG | 4,190.01 | 4,130.35 | -1.42 |
| POWER | 2,287.72 | 2,265.64 | -0.97 |
| METAL | 12,072.82 | 11,969.57 | -0.86 |
| OIL&GAS | 8,652.69 | 8,600.22 | -0.61 |
| BANKEX | 12,068.47 | 11,996.83 | -0.59 |
| CD | 6,544.35 | 6,521.32 | -0.35 |
| PSU | 7,639.16 | 7,656.49 | 0.23 |
| HC | 6,279.22 | 6,404.95 | 2.00 |
Among the individual stocks DLF was the top loser as the scrip lost heavily due to a research report for Canadian based firm VERITAS which raised some serious doubts on the company business and financials. Essar Oil and Sesa Goa were also there among the top losers. SENSEX stock Hero MotoCorp was also one of the top losers this week as the company reported a muted sales growth in month of Feb. Among the top were the stocks like Indiabulls, Aurobindo Pharma, and Bajaj Fins etc.
| Top Gainers | ||
|---|---|---|
| Scrip | CMP | % Change (WoW) |
| Indiabulls | 226.50 | 11.14 |
| AurobndoPh | 120.10 | 9.83 |
| Bajaj Fins | 632.95 | 9.32 |
| Suzlon | 29.15 | 9.18 |
| HIND COPPE | 284.10 | 9.16 |
| WockhardtL | 515.60 | 9.05 |
| MOTHRSNSUM | 191.55 | 8.16 |
| EIH | 89.70 | 8.01 |
| IRB Infra | 187.80 | 7.68 |
| Voltas | 116.40 | 7.38 |
| Top Losers | ||
|---|---|---|
| Scrip | CMP | % Change (WoW) |
| DLF | 203.85 | -10.16 |
| Essar Oils | 60.55 | -8.33 |
| United Pho | 135.80 | -7.93 |
| Sesa Goa | 211.85 | -6.82 |
| Mah&Mah | 679.85 | -6.77 |
| MOIL Ltd | 243.50 | -6.65 |
| Hero Honda | 1938.95 | -6.43 |
| Adani Powe | 76.50 | -6.31 |
| Adani Ente | 352.80 | -6.27 |
| TorrentPow | 216.65 | -5.95 |
In conclusion, we expect volatility to continue on the bourses and accentuate over the next couple of weeks as the Union Budget 2012-13 inches closer. Also the last leg of UP elections would add to it. Our advice to investors would be to continue booking profits. Moreover rather than taking any bold steps it would be better to take help of the F&O strategy for hedging positions.
| Institutional Turnover | ||
|---|---|---|
| Date | FII | DII |
| 27-Feb-12 | 329 | -699 |
| 28-Feb-12 | 728 | -587 |
| 29-Feb-12 | 579 | -431 |
| 1-Mar-12 | -126.52 | -9.96 |
| Total | 1509 | -1727 |
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