Markets End 3rd Consecutive Week On Negative Note

DSIJ Intelligence / 10 Mar 2012

For the third consecutive week, the markets have yielded negative returns. However, the rate of fall in the Sensex was lower at 0.76 per cent.
For the third consecutive week, the markets have yielded negative returns. However, the rate of fall in the Sensex was lower at 0.76 per cent. This was primarily due to the 350 point rise that the markets saw on Friday, March 9, 2012. 

Benchmark Indices

Index

2-Mar-12

9-Mar-12

% Change

SENSEX

17636.80

17503.24

-0.76

NIFTY

5359.35

5333.55

-0.48

Hang Seng

21562.26

21086.00

-2.21

Nikkei

9777.03

9929.74

1.56

Shanghai

2460.69

2439.46

-0.86

Dow Jones*

12980.30

12907.94

-0.56

S&P 500*

1374.09

1365.91

-0.60

NASDAQ*

2988.97

2970.42

-0.62

Bovespa*

66809.80

66908.39

0.15

FTSE*

5931.25

5859.73

-1.21

DAX*

6941.77

6834.54

-1.54

CAC*

3499.73

3478.36

-0.61

* closing till Thursday

For a major part of the week the markets remained on a subdued and negative note, owing to the dismal defeat that Congress faced in the recently concluded assembly elections in the states of UP, Punjab and Uttarakhand. However, on Friday, the markets turned positive as the sentiments on the streets were charged up by the MCX IPO listing at a premium and as traders and investors retorted to some short covering. Late evening the RBI announced a cut in the CRR by 75 bps to 4.75 per cent in order to inject liquidity into the system worth Rs 48,000 crore. This development by the RBI is very positive for the bank stocks as it will empower them with higher credit facility.

Key Global Indicators

Index

2-Mar-12

9-Mar-12

% Change

Gold

28,027

27,940

-0.31

Silver

58,702

58,796

0.16

Crude Oil (Brent)

125

125

0.07

Crude Oil (Nymex)

108

107

-1.22


On the global front, most markets ended the week on a weak and subdued note with the exception of Nikkei which managed to cross the 10,000 mark after seven months. Amongst major global developments which kept the markets subdued were China’s decision to cut the country’s growth target to 7.5 per cent for 2012 from the goal of 8 per cent in place since 2005 in a bid to find leeway for the promised economic and welfare reforms while delivering stability ahead of a leadership transition later this year. However, on Thursday, the markets were lifted as Greece completed a crucial debt swap with private creditors on clearing the way for the country to substantially lower its debt burden and moving it closer to receiving a badly needed second official bailout.  

Currency Rate

Index

2-Mar-12

9-Mar-12

% Change

USD

49.50

50.11

1.23

EURO

65.59

66.48

1.35

GBP

78.82

78.96

0.18

JYP (per 100)

60.75

61.18

0.70


After witnessing some heavy volatility during the month of February 2012, the global oil prices have managed to find some calm as the prices remained flat throughout the week. The FII turnover for this week was positive at Rs 1,235 crore, despite the markets having ended on a negative note. However, rupee woes have seemed to re-enter the markets as it depreciated by 1.2 per cent during the week to levels of over Rs 50.

Sectorial Indices

Category/Index

2-Mar-12

9-Mar-12

Change (%)

Broad

MIDCAP

6,345.43

6,330.15

-0.24

SMLCAP

6,827.66

6,749.21

-1.15

BSE-100

9,276.40

9,232.49

-0.47

BSE-200

2,179.82

2,170.39

-0.43

BSE-500

6,821.64

6,793.45

-0.41

Sectors

METAL

11,969.57

11,499.68

-3.93

OIL&GAS

8,600.22

8,335.47

-3.08

POWER

2,265.64

2,217.15

-2.14

CG

10,317.12

10,188.86

-1.24

REALTY

1,845.98

1,826.15

-1.07

PSU

7,656.49

7,589.63

-0.87

TECk

3,604.80

3,599.01

-0.16

IT

6,103.00

6,132.38

0.48

HC

6,404.95

6,444.41

0.62

BANKEX

11,996.83

12,086.53

0.75

FMCG

4,130.35

4,164.54

0.83

AUTO

9,875.78

10,019.28

1.45

CD

6,521.32

6,632.69

1.71


Back home, among the sectoral indices, the metals’ index was the worst performer as it tanked by almost 4 per cent. This was due to a cut in the GDP forecast by China, signalling subdued demand. Oil and gas also closed down by 3 per cent due to a major disappointment with the ONGC FPO. On the other hand, indices like consumer durables, automobiles, FMCG, Bankex, etc closed on the higher side.  

Top Losers

Scrip

CMP

% Change (WoW)

Adani Enter

317.80

-13.17

Hindalco

134.60

-10.65

Pantaloon

162.55

-10.49

Chambal Fert

79.90

-8.37

SterliteInds

114.45

-7.74

MANAPRMGNFIN

38.75

-7.19

Mundra Port

135.40

-7.04

Essar Oils

57.65

-7.02

SAIL

94.85

-6.96

Hind Zinc

131.75

-6.92


Among the individual stocks, CESC was the lead gainer, up by almost 9 per cent during the week on the back of reports that it had hiked the power tariff which will result into better revenue, thus boosting the bottomline. Other stocks like Piramal Healthcare, Max India, Yes Bank, etc were among the stocks which moved northwards. On the other hand, Adani Enterprise was the leading loser - down by almost 13 per cent due to news reports about the government probing alleged money laundering by the company.

Top Gainers

Scrip

CMP

% Change (WoW)

CESC

290.50

9.27

Piram.Health

483.20

9.03

Max India

174.60

7.71

Yes Bank

365.10

7.37

Tech Mahindr

639.90

7.27

Reliance Pow

131.00

6.9

IDFC

145.55

6.16

BritaniaInds

554.25

5.6

CastrolIndia

507.30

5.6

SyndicateBan

115.30

5.49


Pantaloons was down by around 10 per cent on the back of speculation that the government may come out with a populist budget and may not allow FDI in multi-brand retail. Other metal stocks like Hindalco, Hindustan Zinc and Sterlite Industries were among the top losers on the back of China forecasting lower GDP growth rate.

Institutional Turnover

Date

FII

DII

02-Mar-12

579

-70

03-Mar-12

-10

-5

05-Mar-12

126

-258

06-Mar-12

-241

180

07-Mar-12

-504

-130

09-Mar-12

1285

-13

Total

1235

-296


In conclusion, we expect the volatility to continue on the bourses next week as the Union Budget 2012-13 inches closer. Our advice to investors would be to continue booking profits. Moreover, rather than taking any bold steps, it would be better to take help of the F&O strategy for hedging positions.

Volumes (Rs.cr)

Date

BSE

NSE

02-Mar-12

3137

13032

05-Mar-12

2456

10760

06-Mar-12

3038

15012

07-Mar-12

2664

12329

09-Mar-12

2650

13448


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