Markets May Open Sideways As Investors Grapple For Concrete Direction
DSIJ Intelligence / 02 Apr 2012
The Indian equity markets may open sideways as investors and traders fret over the sustainability of gains seen last Friday. The SGX Nifty is trading down by 8 point at 5,321, indicating a very flattish gap down opening to the markets today.
Opening Bias
The Indian equity markets may open sideways as investors and traders fret over the sustainability of gains seen last Friday. The SGX Nifty is trading down by 8 point at 5,321, indicating a very flattish gap down opening to the markets today.
| Benchmark Indices | ||
|---|---|---|
| Index | Closing | % Change |
| SENSEX | 17404.20 | 2.03 |
| NIFTY | 5295.55 | 2.25 |
| Dow Jones | 13212.04 | 0.50 |
| S&P 500 | 1408.47 | 0.37 |
| NASDAQ | 3091.57 | -0.12 |
| Bovespa | 64511.00 | -0.56 |
| FTSE | 5768.45 | 0.46 |
| DAX | 6946.83 | 1.04 |
| CAC | 3423.81 | 1.26 |
| LIVE | ||
| Hang Seng | 20555.58 | 0.00 |
| Nikkei | 10177.87 | 0.94 |
| Shanghai | 2262.79 | 0.00 |
After generating positive returns for the months of January and February 2012, the Sensex has yielded negative 1.02 per cent returns for the month of March. This was pretty much expected as March witnessed many disappointing events that played spoilsport to the party. Right from the RBI’s stringent monetary policy stance to the Railway Budget fiasco to the incompetent finance budget and finally the same old problem of persistently high inflation, investors’ sentiments were hurt at every point.
| Key Global Indicators | ||
|---|---|---|
| Particulars | Gold (Rs/10gm) | Crude ($/bbl) |
| Spot | 27577 | 123.43 |
| % change | - | -0.31 |
| Future | 28010 | 103.36 |
| % change | -0.44 | 0.33 |
The situation on the global front wasn’t too merry either. With the Brent crude prices staying above the USD 120 per barrel level thanks to the burgeoning tensions between the western powers and Iran, the Indian fiscal situation has been thrown askew as the rupee too depreciated against the dollar to the level of Rs 51. The recent rumours of a slowdown in the Chinese economy may further pose grievous risk to global recovery.
| Currency Rates | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Particulars | Rs/$ | Rs/Euro | Rs/GBP | Rs100/JYP |
| RBI Rate | 51.1565 | 68.3403 | 81.7992 | 62.4300 |
| Future | 51.2400 | 68.3350 | 81.9325 | 62.4850 |
Going forward, as the companies may start announcing their March quarter earnings by mid-month, there would be further volatility on the streets. We at DSIJ do not expect much improvement from the March quarter earnings. With the Sensex already trading at high PE valuations of close to 18x, a muted performance by companies comprising the Sensex in the March quarter would further add pressure to the market valuations to consequently bring about a further correction on the indices. Hence, in our view, despite the fall seen in March, we advise readers to tread with safety as the market valuations suggest further downside.
As for today and most part of the week ahead, D-Street would await further clarity on concerns lurking over the government’s broader proposals to tax foreign investors. For FIIs facing tax uncertainty about their short-term investments, the possibility of further turbulence in the rupee against the dollar is unnerving. Hence we advise investors to tread with caution while making investments. It is better to stick to individual stocks rather than go bullish on any particular sector. For today, the cement and auto shares would be much in action as several companies are expected to announce their monthly sales numbers.
Stocks In Action
Tata Motors has reported 20 per cent increase in total vehicle sales during March at 1,00,414 units as against 83,363 cars in the same month last year. The total passenger vehicle sales in the domestic market rose by 34 per cent at 36,984 units in March, the highest ever in a month, over 27,678 vehicles sold in the year-ago period. In the commercial vehicles’ segment, the company sold 58,063 units in the domestic market last month as against 49,753 units in the same period last year - an increase of 17 per cent. The sales of light commercial vehicles during March stood at 36,091 units - a growth of 37 per cent. Medium and heavy commercial vehicle sales stood at 21,972 units last month, lower by 6 per cent over March 2011. The export sales declined by 10 per cent to 5,367 units from 5,932 vehicles last year. Expect positive action.
Auto maker Mahindra & Mahindra reported 25 per cent increase in sales at 47,001 units in March 2012 as against 37,522 units in the same month in 2011, registering its highest ever monthly sales number in the history of the company. In the domestic market, the company registered a 25 per cent rise in sales to 44,342 units compared to 35,488 units in the year-ago period. M&M’s exports jumped to 2,659 units during the month from 2,034 units in March 2011. The company has closed FY2011-12 with sales figure of 4,83,246 units as against 3,77,063 units in FY2010-11, reflecting an impressive growth of 28 per cent. The company’s exports have also grown by an impressive 70 per cent during FY12. Expect positive action.
According to Business Standard, the Delhi High Court has dismissed the plea of two Australian coal firms, Vale Australia (Vale) and AMCI, against an International Court of Arbitration’s (ICA) order to them for payment of about USD 159 million (Rs 760 crore) as damages to SAIL. The dispute between the parties arose when Vale and AMCI failed to meet SAIL’s demand of one million metric tonnes (MT) of coking coal in 2007 under a long-term agreement (LTA) of April 23, 2007 between them. The matter was presented for dispute resolution in March 2009 before the ICA, which agreed with SAIL’s contention that there was a breach of the LTA by the two Australian companies.
According to Economic Times, in a first instance of the government allowing an actual user from the private sector to import gold directly, Tata Group firm Titan Industries has been given the nod to bring the yellow metal from the overseas market. At present, only authorised agencies and public sector units like MMTC are allowed to import gold. This will open the doors for other actual users from the private sector to import gold directly through an approved route. According to the company’s management, the direct import of gold would help in saving 1 per cent of their operating cost besides ensuring the quality of gold.
According to our sources, the domestic refiners have pushed for a hike of at least Rs 3 per litre in the price of petrol from April 1 to cover part of the spike in the cost of raw material. The oil marketers are currently losing Rs 6.43 per litre on petrol and after adding 20 per cent sales tax, the desired increase in rates in Delhi is Rs 7.72 per litre. However, while it is difficult to raise rates by Rs 7.72 per litre in one go, the more feasible option would be an increase of Rs 3 or even Rs 4 a litre. Expect some positive action in the shares of IOC, BPCL and HPCL.
According to a press statement, Ranbaxy Laboratories has received approval from Health Canada to manufacture and market its generic RAN-Rosuvastatin tablets used for lowering cholesterol in the Canadian market. The RAN-Rosuvastatin tablets are a generic version of Astra Zeneca's Crestor tablets. Expect positive action.
Expect some positive action in the scrip of Eros International as the company on Friday said it is planning an initial public offering in the US to raise up to USD 250 million to fund co-productions and acquisitions. The company plans to list its shares on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), while at the same time intends to delist from the London Stock Exchange. The LSE-listed firm has appointed Deutsche Bank Securities Inc, BofA Merrill Lynch, Citigroup and UBS Securities LLC as joint book-runners for the IPO.
Corporate Action
| BSE Institutional Turnover | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
| FII | DII | ||||
| Trade Date | Buy | Sales | Net | Buy | Sales | Net |
| 30-Mar-12 | 5,112.70 | 4,150.05 | 962.65 | 1,096.07 | 1,263.39 | -167.32 |
| 29-Mar-12 | 3,954.15 | 5,287.00 | -1,332.85 | 1,408.00 | 1,108.33 | 299.67 |
| 28-Mar-12 | 2,863.56 | 3,011.62 | -148.06 | 895.94 | 822.91 | 73.02 |
| Mar , 12 | 61,369.59 | 55,098.92 | 6,270.67 | 20,482.05 | 23,844.52 | -3,362.47 |
| FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 30-Mar-2012 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
| Buy | Sell | OI (End of day) | Net Position | |
| Particulars | Rs (crore) | Rs (crore) | No. of contracts | Rs (crore) | Rs (crore) |
| Index Futures | 2858.41 | 3359.08 | 364052 | 9661.07 | -500.67 |
| Index Options | 10974.28 | 11274.73 | 1035605 | 27418.81 | -300.45 |
| Stock Futures | 1754.44 | 1643.25 | 773063 | 21813.45 | 111.19 |
| Stock Options | 428.62 | 407.85 | 13173 | 381.49 | 20.77 |
| Total | 16015.74 | 16684.91 | 2185893 | 59274.82 | -669.17 |
If you want to stay updated with the share market news today, keep a close watch on the indian stock market today with real time movements like sensex today live and overall stock market today trends. Investors tracking ipo allotment status, ipo news today, or the latest ipo india can also follow daily updates along with bse share price live data. Whether you are learning how to invest in stock market in india, preparing for a market crash today, or searching for the best stocks to buy in india, insights on top gainers today india, top losers today india, trending stocks india and long term stocks india help in making informed investment decisions.