Markets Close Positive On Rate Cut Hopes

Chandrakant / 16 Apr 2012

After opening on a negative note, the Indian markets recovered some of their losses on the back of the inflation figures, which provided some ray of hope on the rate cut by RBI in its quarterly meet tomorrow. The inflation for Mar 2012 cooled off marginally by 0.6% to 6.89%, which came against the street's expectations of 6.70%.

After opening on a negative note, the Indian markets recovered some of their losses on the back of the inflation figures, which provided some ray of hope on the rate cut by RBI in its quarterly meet tomorrow. Inflation for Mar 2012 cooled off marginally by 0.6% to 6.89%, which came against the street's expectations of 6.70%. However, the lower inflation figure provides some room for the RBI to consider a rate cut. Among the sectoral indices, IT and Teck plunged, closing down by 0.49% and 0.65% respectively. On the other hand, the rate-sensitive indices like Auto, Bankex, and Capital Goods closed higher in the positive zone.

The peer Asian markets closed lower, with the 3 major indices, viz. Hang Seng, Nikkei and Shanghai closing lower in the range of 0.09%-1.77%. The markets traded lower over concerns on the weakening European region and the slowdown in China.

The European markets are trading higher in the positive zone, with FTSE, CAC and DAX trading in the range of 0.66%-0.89%. The markets seem to be in consolidation mode after the continuous fall seen over the previous week. Support from the US earnings season also helped the markets to trade higher. However, concerns are still looming around the European countries like Spain and Greece ahead of the bond auction this week.

Dow Jones Futures is currently trading 43 points or 0.34% up at 12831, indicating a positive sentiment in the US markets.

Benchmark Indices
IndexClosing% Change
SENSEX 17150.95 0.33
NIFTY 5226.2 0.36
Hang Seng  20610.64 -0.44
Nikkei  9470.64 -1.77
Shanghai  2357.03 -0.09
Live
FTSE 5689.48 0.66
DAX 6629.18 0.68
CAC 3217.76 0.89

Back home, the IT stocks continue to trade on a weak note post the Q4 results announced by IT bellwether, Infosys, which came out with muted results and weak guidance. The IT and Teck indices dragged the market sentiment downwards, and closed with losses of 0.41% and 0.55% respectively. However, the rate-sensitive stocks closed on a higher note today. Scrips such as Bajaj Auto, Maruti Suzuki and Tata Motors closed with gains of 0.76%, 1.41% and 3.91% respectively. On the other hand, SBI is the leading with gains of 2.44% at Rs 2265.40.

Sectoral Indices
Category/IndexCloseChange(Pts)Change (%)
Broad
MIDCAP 6,388.94 50.97 0.80
SMLCAP 6,837.26 38.03 0.56
BSE-100 9,085.18 34.87 0.39
BSE-200 2,140.29 8.65 0.41
BSE-500 6,718.82 28.88 0.43
Sectors      
AUTO 10,288.94 132.68 1.31
BANKEX 12,028.61 144.4 1.22
CG 10,009.30 108.85 1.1
REALTY 1,781.47 17.61 1.00
FMCG 4,711.14 45.41 0.97
CD 6,673.30 34.42 0.52
PSU 7,320.83 31.93 0.44
METAL 10,958.77 43.98 0.4
POWER 2,099.59 3.03 0.14
HC 6,694.90 0.95 0.01
OIL&GAS 7,959.92 -21.17 -0.27
IT 5,377.76 -26.51 -0.49
TECk 3,210.42 -20.91 -0.65

DCB closed 3.52% up at Rs 49.95 after reporting strong Q4 numbers post the closing of the market on Friday, Apr 13. Today, the scrip is trading higher by 3% at Rs 49.50. For the Mar 2012 quarter, its profit increased by 52% to Rs 17.27 crore, while its profit for FY12 jumped by 157% to Rs 55 crore. The high interest rate regime has affected the bank’s net interest margin (NIM), which decreased marginally by 3 bps to 3.12%. Lower NPAs and better PCR shows that the bank is in decent shape and the quality of lending is also good.

One should watch out for stocks like CRISIL, Goa Carbon, HCL Tech, ACC, IndusInd Bank, Cairn India, etc., which are going to post their Mar 2012 quarter results soon. These stocks may see a price movement.

The market breadth, which indicates the overall health of the market, was positive. Out of the 3237 stocks traded on the BSE, 1757 advanced, 1342 declined and 138 remained unchanged.

Advance-Decline Table
IndexAdvancesDeclinesUnchanged
BSE 30 15 14 1
BSE 200 130 68 2
BSE 100 61 37 2
BSE 500 320 167 13
Others 1231 1056 120

We expect the markets to remain volatile. The RBI's monetary policy meet is scheduled for Apr 17, 2012 (Tuesday). We believe that all eyes will be on these two factors - the RBI Policy and the companies' announcement of their Mar 2012 quarter results, and these will further move the market sentiments. We advise investors to remain cautious.

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