Heavyweight Results Will Determine Market Movement

DSIJ Intelligence / 26 Oct 2012

The Indian markets may open negative in line with the global cues. The SGX Nifty is trading lower by 22 points at 5,727.50, indicating a negative start to the November series expiry.

The Indian markets may open negative in line with the global cues. The SGX Nifty is trading lower by 22 points at 5,727.50, indicating a negative start to the November series expiry.

Benchmark Indices
IndexClosing% Change
SENSEX 18758.63 0.26
NIFTY 5705.3 0.24
Dow Jones 13103.68 0.2
S&P 500 1413 0.3
NASDAQ 2986 0.14
Bovespa 57836 1.18
FTSE 5805 0.00
DAX 7200 0.10
CAC 3411 -0.44
..    
Hang Seng 21721 -0.41
Nikkei 9045 -0.11
Shanghai 2099 -0.12
The markets may remain volatile as participants would be cautious ahead of some of the heavyweight companies announcing their September quarter results today and would also be waiting for the RBI monetary meet scheduled for next week. Yesterday the Indian markets closed marginally in the positive territory as it was the October series expiry. The Sensex closed above the 18,750 level while the Nifty closed comfortably above the 5,700 mark.

Further, according to media reports, the price of petrol will be hiked by 30 paise per litre and diesel by 18 paise a litre after the government decided to increase the commission paid to the petrol pump dealers. The Ministry of Petroleum yesterday decided to increase the dealer commission on petrol from Rs 1.499 per litre to Rs 1.799 a litre. The same on diesel has been hiked from 91 paise to Rs 1.09 a litre. This will add inflationary pressure on the economy which has been a major growth barrier particularly in the last 12 months.

According to media reports, Congress MP Naveen Jindal has filed a criminal case against Zee TV for a sting operation about his company’s alleged involvement in the scam-tainted coal block allocations. Jindal alleged that he was asked for cash to stop the negative story on him.

According to Business Standard, the stalemate between the Centre and the states over the proposed goods and services tax (GST) might soon end with the Union finance ministry showing some flexibility. The two sides are hopeful of resolving their differences in the next two or three meetings.

Overnight the U.S. markets closed marginally higher in the positive territory with major indices like Nasdaq, Dow Jones and S&P 500 closing their trades higher in the range of 0.1 to 0.3 per cent respectively. This was in the wake of Bloomberg reports which said that the American indices retreated after Apple Inc.’s earnings and forecast trailed analyst estimates, sending shares of the world’s largest company down by more than 1 per cent in extended trading. Further, the management of Apple Inc. guided that strong demand and limited supply of the iPhone and iPad products will persist into the current period, according to media reports.

Meanwhile, the European indices closed on a mixed note with the FTSE almost remaining unchanged in the positive territory while DAX closed marginally higher by 0.1 per cent. CAC closed its trades lower by 0.44 per cent to 3,411 levels. This was after a Bloomberg report said that the European stocks climbed for a second day as companies, including Unilever and Sanofi (SAN), posted results that exceeded the analysts’ estimates.

The Asian markets in today’s early trades are trading lower in the negative territory with major indices like Hang Seng, Shanghai and Nikkei trading lower in the range of 0.1 to 0.4 per cent respectively. This was after a Bloomberg report said that the Asian stocks swung between gains and losses as Japanese companies, including Fanuc Corp and Yamaha Corp, reported disappointing earnings, while Australia’s Macquarie Group Ltd rose on higher profit.

Key Global Indicators
 Gold (Rs/10gm)Crude ($/bbl)
Spot 30781 108.56
% change - 0.06
Future 30940 92.93
% change 0.31 0.22

Currency Rates
 Rs/$Rs/EuroRs/GBPRs100/JYP
RBI Rate 53.63 69.7455 86.178 66.91
Future 53.675 69.7625 86.585 66.9825

The rupee has recovered from its all-time low but is still trading above the comfort zone at Rs 53.63 against a dollar. Brent crude has again started moving southwards from the higher levels of USD 115 to the current levels of USD 108.56 per barrel, which is good for the economy. 

For today we have action-packed companies declaring their September quarter results, which could mean stock-specific movement. Watch out for stocks of HUL, ICICI Bank, IDFC, NTPC, PNB, Sesa Goa, Dabur India, Gail India, etc. In conclusion, we expect the markets to remain volatile with a negative bias. Our advice to investors is to play with caution.

FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 25-October-2012
 BUYSELLOI (End of the day) Net Position
  Rs (crore) Rs (crore) No. of contracts Rs (crore) Rs (crore)
INDEX FUTURES 6316.63 5412.74 406068 10171.95 903.89
INDEX OPTIONS 17616.94 17218.01 1295008 36954.01 398.93
STOCK FUTURES 8429.41 9160.09 960142 27932.70 -730.68
STOCK OPTIONS 1106.87 1055.37 3411 105.83 51.50
Total 33469.86 32846.21 2664629.00 75164.48 623.65


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