Global Markets Rise: Will Nifty Follow?

DSIJ Intelligence / 20 Nov 2012

The Indian markets are expected to see an upward opening today on account of a positive sentiment globally.

The Indian markets are expected to see an upward opening today on account of a positive sentiment globally. Investors had been increasingly worried over the fiscal cliff last week. However, confidence over a consensus being reached to avoid the cliff has been increasing.

Benchmark Indices

Index

Closing

% Change

SENSEX

18339

0.16

NIFTY

5571.4

-0.05

Dow Jones

12796

1.65

S&P 500

1387

1.99

NASDAQ

2916

2.2

Bovespa

56450.86

1.89

FTSE

5738

2.36

DAX

7124

2.5

CAC

3440

2.95

..

 

 

Hang Seng

21403

0.66

Nikkei

9169

0.16

Shanghai

2021

0.20

On Sunday, American President Barack Obama expressed confidence in the situation being dealt with in order to avoid the series of spending cuts and raised taxes. Developments around this situation have been indicative of a timely compromise being reached at. This had the global markets heave a sigh of relief, thus pushing the markets upwards. The European indices closed higher in the range of 2.36 per cent and 2.95 per cent while the U.S. markets ended the day higher in the range of 1.65 per cent and 2.2 per cent.

What also had the American indices moving higher was its upbeat housing data. The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo housing market index rose by five points to a seasonally adjusted level of 46. Though the reading is distant from the 50 mark, which indicates an equal number of builders in view of sales conditions as good versus poor, this has been the highest level the index has reached since more than six years. Also, the existing home sales rose from 4.69 million in September to 4.79 million in October, indicating a growth of 2.1 per cent.

The upward trend in equities was also coupled with a rise in oil prices that escalated with the rising violence in the Middle East. This issue has been raising concerns over oil supplies from the region which accounts for a third of the world’s crude supplies. A cumulative of global factors also led to a 1 per cent rise in gold prices, the commodity recovering the previous week’s losses.

Key Global Indicators

 

Gold (Rs/10gm)

Crude ($/bbl)

Spot

31676

111.56

% change

-

-0.13

Future

31699

111.6

% change

0.19

-0.09

Domestically, the equity markets remained subdued yesterday. The positive sentiment surrounding the issue of the fiscal cliff had started to seep in since Sunday. This had also translated into gains in the European markets yesterday. However, the Indian markets saw a rather lacklustre trading session. The markets were highly range-bound and traded along Friday’s closing throughout the day. Though this was the case with broader indices, the markets had an inherent weakness which was evident from the overall market breadth and from the movement in mid-caps and small-caps. Contrary to this, we expect a higher probability today of an upward swing on account of the positive sentiment acting out in all the markets globally.

Currency Rates

 

Rs/$

Rs/Euro

Rs/GBP

Rs100/JYP

RBI Rate

54.9665

70.1595

87.4957

67.65

Future

55.1125

70.3525

87.6475

67.8375

Though relieved for the moment, investors would be closely eyeing The Bank of Japan press conference that is scheduled to be held later today for movements on the monetary policy front. Later today, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is also to speak. These events are likely to determine a short-term positive or negative trend to add to the current situation of the markets. 

FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 19-Nov-12

 

BUY

SELL

OI (End of the day)

Net Position

 

Rs (crore)

Rs (crore)

Rs (crore)

Rs (crore)

INDEX FUTURES

1099.30

1154.08

8066.29

-54.78

INDEX OPTIONS

16128.98

16165.67

52487.70

-36.68

STOCK FUTURES

1385.31

1301.34

29414.58

83.97

STOCK OPTIONS

1645.52

1655.66

2752.03

-10.15

Total

20259.11

20276.75

92720.60

-17.64

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