Markets Witness An Economic Data-Driven Week

DSIJ Intelligence / 15 Feb 2013

With the announcement of the CPI, WPI and IIP this week, the markets saw volatile trade.

The last week has been a data-driven one for the Indian markets. Taking cues from it, the markets witnessed some volatility and ended on a flat note in red. The Sensex and Nifty ended the week declining by 0.09% and 0.27% respectively.

Benchmark Indices
Index15-Feb-138-Feb-13% Change
SENSEX 19468.15 19484.77 -0.09
NIFTY 5887.4 5903.5 -0.27
Hang Seng 23444.56 23215.16 0.99
Nikkei 11173.83 11153.16 0.19
Shanghai Comp 2432.4 2432.4 0.00
Dow Jones* 13973.39 13944.05 0.21
S&P 500* 1521.38 1509.39 0.79
NASDAQ* 3198.66 3162.13 1.16
Bovespa* 58077.31 58309.82 -0.40
FTSE* 6330.38 6262.24 1.09
DAX* 7625.88 7620.42 0.07
CAC* 3670.75 3623.03 1.32
* closing till Thursday

This week, the markets were expecting several economic data like the CPI, WPI and the IIP to be released. In a bitter surprise, the latest IIP numbers for the month of December 2012 contracted by 0.6% on a YoY basis. It can be said that the number will lower further as data for the month of November 2012 stood at -0.1%. The cumulative growth for the period of April to December 2012-13 came in at 0.7% over the corresponding period last year. The main draggers for the IIP were the Manufacturing, Mining and Electricity sectors. They witnessed a mixed growth rate for the month of December 2012.

On the other hand, the CPI numbers for the month of January 2013 came in at 10.79% as against 10.76% of December 2012, witnessing an increase of 23 basis points. The CPI Inflation is considered more relevant as it captures the ground level prices which directly impact the consumers’ purchasing activity.

However, on the other hand, there is a positive sign too. The WPI numbers for the month of January 2013 came in surprisingly lower at 6.62%, well below the street’s expectations of 7%. WPI for the month of December 2012 stood at 7.18%. WPI is showing signs of cooling since the past three to four months. From 7.32% in the month of October 2012 to 6.62% in January 2013, it reduced almost by 70 basis points in the past four months.

On the global front, there will be a focus on the G-20 meet of the finance chiefs, which is scheduled to be held in Moscow today. The G-20 finance ministers and central bankers begin talks in the Russian capital today to find some common ground on currencies, with investors seeking clarity on how comfortable they are with a sliding yen. Russia, who holds the G-20’s rotating presidency this year, wants to head off a global currency war by pushing policy makers to make stronger commitments against exchange-rate manipulation.

The Senate Democrats unveiled a $110 billion plan yesterday to delay federal spending cuts, including tax increases which Republicans already say they won’t accept.

Currency Rate
Index15-Feb-138-Feb-13% Change
USD 53.99 53.57 0.78
EURO 72.09 71.79 0.42
GBP 83.72 84.25 -0.63
JYP (per 100) 58.38 57.42 1.67

Key Commodity Indicators
Index15-Feb-138-Feb-13% Change
Gold 30421 30786 -1.19
Silver 56611 58246 -2.81
Crude Oil (Brent) 117.61 118.2 -0.50
Crude Oil (WTI) 98.83 96.27 2.66

The crude oil witnessed a flattish move in the last week to end at USD 117.61 per barrel declining by a mere 0.51%. This week, the gold prices fell to nearly a two-week low at the bullion market on further selling by stockists and investors amid a dull retail demand. The same is the case with silver which declined by 2.81% during the last week.

Sectoral Indices
Category/Index15-Feb-138-Feb-13% Change
Broad
MIDCAP 6626.86 6756.01 -1.91
SMLCAP 6540.92 6794.01 -3.73
BSE-100 5916.97 5952.01 -0.59
BSE-200 2387.19 2404.21 -0.71
BSE-500 7416.24 7479.3 -0.84
Sectoral Indices
IT 6477.68 6477.18 0.01
TECk 3778.69 3799.9 -0.56
AUTO 10836.08 10809.65 0.24
FMCG 5808.34 5819.85 -0.20
BANKEX 14146.3 14102.99 0.31
HC 7899.28 7874.42 0.32
CG 9763.24 10167.8 -3.98
REALTY 2036.63 2152.75 -5.39
OIL&GAS 8928.35 9016.73 -0.98
POWER 1817.21 1869.39 -2.79
METAL 9904.1 10066.53 -1.61
PSU 7287.15 7262.78 0.34
CD 7241.71 7317.83 -1.04

As regards the broader market, all of the broader indices have closed the week on a negative note. The BSE Mid-Cap and Small-Cap closed the week in red declining by 1.91% and 3.73% respectively. On the sectoral basis, 8 out of the 13 indices have closed in the positive territory this week.

The main gainer was the BSE PSU index that closed with a gain of 0.34%. It is followed by the BSE HC index (+0.32%) and the BSE Bankex index (+0.31%). The main draggers this week are the BSE Realty index (-5.39%), followed by the BSE CG index (-3.98%) and BSE Power index (-2.79%).

Money inflows from the FIIs remained strong this week. The FIIs pumped in Rs 19,496 for the month of February till February 13, taking the total inflows to Rs 41,741 crore for CY13. The DIIs again remained in red and have sold equities worth Rs 1,325 crore in the month of February. The main set off for the markets, going forward, will be the Union Budget. The Budget Session of the Parliament is slated to start from February 21 and is likely to give a direction to the markets. It is now over to the Finance Minister to give the much needed trigger to the markets.

Institutional Turnover (Rs / Cr)
DateFIIDII
7-Feb-13 6354 82
8-Feb-13 1528 -110
11-Feb-13 985 -104
12-Feb-13 2 117
13-Feb-13 813 24
Total 9682 9

Volumes (Rs/cr)
DateBSENSE
8-Feb-13 2519 12477
11-Feb-13 2140 9461
12-Feb-13 1972 10036
13-Feb-13 2041 11054
14-Feb-13 2166 12747

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