Markets Await FY13 Results

DSIJ Intelligence / 29 Mar 2013

After a short week, the next trigger for the markets would be the concluding quarter’s results to be announced soon as FY13 comes to end.

This week witnessed only three trading sessions owing to the Holi and Good Friday holidays. The Sensex and Nifty closed with a gain of 0.53% and 0.55% respectively.

Benchmark Indices
Index28-Mar-1322-Mar-13% Change
SENSEX 18835.77 18735.6 0.53
NIFTY 5682.55 5651.35 0.55
Hang Seng 22299.63 22115.3 0.83
Nikkei 12397.91 12338.53 0.48
Shanghai Comp 2236.62 2328.28 -3.94
Dow Jones* 14578.54 14421.49 1.09
S&P 500* 1569.19 1545.8 1.51
NASDAQ* 3267.52 3222.6 1.39
Bovespa* 56352.09 55576.67 1.40
FTSE* 6411.74 6388.55 0.36
DAX* 7795.31 7932.51 -1.73
CAC* 3731.42 3774.85 -1.15
* closing till Thursday

India’s Current Account Deficit (CAD) widened to USD 32.63 billion in the quarter ending December 2012. This marks a rise of 61%, when compared to the CAD of USD 20.2 billion seen in the quarter ending December 2011. As a percentage of GDP, the CAD has touched a new high of 6.7% in Q3FY13. This figure was 4.4% in Q3FY12 and 5.4% in Q2FY13. On a BoP basis, merchandise exports showed a flat growth (0.5% YoY), when compared to the 7.6% growth seen in Q3FY12. On the contrary, imports saw a steep incline of 9.4%, mainly contributed to by imports of oil and gold. This resulted in a trade deficit that widened to USD 59.6 billion in Q3FY13 from USD 48.6 billion in Q3FY12.

On the global front, Cyprus, the tiny island country in Europe, finally managed to strike a last minute deal with its international lenders to avoid bankruptcy, which had looked almost unavoidable following the protests in the country and the rejection from the country’s parliament to tax bank deposits. The idea of a ‘bad bank’ and a ‘good bank’ has finally been implemented by the policymakers and will come into force soon. With this, the country has secured a 10 billion euros bailout package and it will see the first tranche of this bailout coming its way in May 2013.

According to this new deal, Cyprus will dissolve its second largest bank, Laiki, into a bad bank, which will contain toxic assets and unguaranteed deposits (each over 100000 euros) to be taxed. The guaranteed deposits from this bank will be shifted to the largest bank of the country, the Bank of Cyprus. The large deposits in Bank of Cyprus will be frozen until there is clarity on the tax structure to be imposed on these deposits.

Currency Rate
Index28-Mar-1322-Mar-13% Change
USD 54.39 54.34 0.09
EURO 69.54 70.1 -0.79
GBP 82.32 82.56 -0.29
JYP (per 100) 57.76 57.37 0.68

Key Commodity Indicators
Index28-Mar-1322-Mar-13% Change
Gold 29632 29753 -0.41
Silver 54062 54731 -1.22
Crude Oil (Brent) 110.02 107.51 2.33
Crude Oil (WTI) 97.23 92.88 4.68

West Texas Intermediate oil climbed for a fifth day, capping the longest rally this year, as the US economy grew at a faster pace in the fourth quarter. Prices reached a six-week high as gross domestic product rose at a 0.4 per cent annual rate, up from the prior estimate of 0.1 per cent.

This week gold prices remained flat, falling 0.41% at the bullion market. Silver too witnessed a decline of 1.22% this week.

Sectoral Indices
Category/Index28-Mar-1322-Mar-13% Change
Broad
MIDCAP 6142.06 6079.79 1.02
SMLCAP 5804.65 5772.93 0.55
BSE-100 5678.7 5641.78 0.65
BSE-200 2287.96 2271.57 0.72
BSE-500 7084.96 7031.75 0.76
Sectoral Indices
REALTY 1780.09 1781.36 -0.07
PSU 6481.16 6377.08 1.63
POWER 1646.5 1637.7 0.54
METAL 8758.32 8625.34 1.54
CG 9017.59 9123.58 -1.16
BANKEX 13033.35 12866.93 1.29
OIL&GAS 8326.6 8422.26 -1.14
AUTO 9994.23 10115.33 -1.20
TECk 3900.94 3847.2 1.40
CD 7094.55 6825.22 3.95
IT 6885.46 6787.91 1.44
HC 8008.09 7952.69 0.70
FMCG 5919.19 5853.3 1.13

The broader markets closed the week on a positive note. The BSE Mid-Cap closed with a gain of 1.02%, while the Small-Cap closed the week gaining 0.55%. On a sectoral basis, 9 out of the 13 indices have closed in a positive territory this week. The main gainer for the week has been the BSE Consumer Durables Index that closed with a gain of 3.95%. It is followed by the BSE PSU index (+1.63%) and BSE Metals index (+1.54%). The main draggers this week were the BSE Auto index (-1.20%), BSE Capital Goods index (-1.16%) and BSE Oil & Gas Index that declined by 1.14%.

The money inflows from FIIs remained strong in the last week. They pumped in Rs 1409 crore in equities last week while DIIs ended the week in red while selling of equities worth Rs 315 crore last week. Going forward, the markets will be looking forward to the Q4FY13 results to provide some direction to the markets. Till then volatility in the markets cannot be ruled out.

Institutional Turnover (Rs / Cr)
DateFIIDII
19-Mar-13 147 -180
20-Mar-13 -160 -83
21-Mar-13 411 111
22-Mar-13 204 11
25-Mar-13 807 -174
Total 1409 -315

Volumes (Rs/ Cr)
DateBSENSE
21-Mar-13 2488 12159
22-Mar-13 2190 10352
25-Mar-13 2145 10106
26-Mar-13 1662 8748
28-Mar-13 3100 14102


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