How Markets Traded in the Last 10 Budgets: Key Nifty Levels to Watch in Budget 2026
Prajwal DSIJCategories: Mindshare, Technical, Trending
In the last 10 Budget sessions, the market has closed higher only three times. On February 1, 2021, the Nifty posted its biggest Budget-day gain of 646.60 points.
On Friday, the Nifty 50 ended in the red, but it recovered over 100 points from the day’s low to close above 25,300. Despite a sharp fall in metal stocks, their steepest single-day drop since April last year, the index stayed in a 157-point range, well below its 10-day average range of 271 points. This was one of the narrowest daily ranges in recent times. The index also traded within the previous session’s range, forming an inside candle, which points to contraction ahead of Union Budget 2026, a key event for the markets. Volumes were lower than the previous day but still higher than recent sessions. On a weekly basis, volumes were the highest since the last week of May 2025.
The index closed above the 23.6 per cent retracement of the recent decline but below the 8-EMA. The previous week’s range is now important for directional cues. 25,458 is the first resistance, followed by 25,655, which also aligns with the 20-week average and the 20-DMA. This level is also the 50 per cent retracement of the recent fall, making it a strong resistance zone. A close above 25,655 would be a clear positive. On the downside, 25,199 is the immediate support, backed by the 200-DMA, while the key support stands at 24,900. As long as the index holds above 24,900, it is likely to stay in a consolidation range.
Budget and Stock Market
In the last 10 Budget sessions, the market has closed higher only three times. On February 1, 2021, the Nifty posted its biggest Budget-day gain of 646.60 points. In 2020, it fell 300.25 points on Budget Day. For this Budget session, the expected Intraday range is 300 to 600 points. Open interest data suggests the 25,000–26,000 band as the key support and resistance zone. The February 3 series straddle premium is around Rs 375, while the monthly straddle premium is around Rs 690, which is elevated. The IV percentile is around 71 per cent, indicating higher-than-usual volatility. After the event, volatility may cool off sharply, and the Budget could act as the trigger for the next directional move.
Disclaimer: The article is for informational purposes only and not investment advice.