Nifty, Sensex Likely to Open Lower as Trump Imposes 25% Tariff on Indian Goods

Pre-Market Update at 7:45 AM: Indian stock markets are expected to open lower on Thursday, July 31, as GIFT Nifty indicated a gap-down start, trading at 24,673 — down by 181 points from its previous close. The decline follows a significant announcement by U.S. President Donald Trump, who declared a 25 per cent tariff on Indian goods starting August 1. He cited India’s “high trade barriers” and warned of an additional penalty related to India’s defence and energy partnerships with Russia. The announcement was made via a post on Trump’s Truth Social account.

This development, coupled with the U.S. Federal Reserve’s policy update and comments by Chair Jerome Powell, has weighed on global sentiment. Asian markets opened mixed, while U.S. indices ended Wednesday’s session mostly lower. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 171.71 points (0.38 per cent) to 44,461.28, while the S&P 500 lost 7.96 points (0.12 per cent) to close at 6,362.90. However, the Nasdaq Composite managed a modest gain of 31.38 points (0.15 per cent) to end at 21,129.67.

The U.S. Fed kept benchmark interest rates steady at 4.25–4.5 per cent for the fifth straight time, citing continued labour market strength and “somewhat elevated” inflation. Powell’s cautious tone reduced hopes for a rate cut in September. Meanwhile, the U.S. economy expanded by 3.0 per cent in Q2 2025 on an annualised basis, rebounding from a 0.5 per cent contraction in Q1 and surpassing estimates of 2.4 per cent. The nominal size of the U.S. economy has now crossed USD 30 trillion before adjusting for inflation.

Back home, Indian equities advanced for a second session on Wednesday. The Nifty 50 rose 33.95 points (0.14 per cent) to close at 24,855.05, and the Sensex added 143.91 points (0.18 per cent) to end at 81,481.86. However, market sentiment may reverse today amid global headwinds and geopolitical concerns.

Investors will closely watch Quarterly Results (Q1 FY26) of 15 major companies, including Hindustan Unilever, Sun Pharmaceutical Industries, Mahindra and Mahindra, Maruti Suzuki India, Adani Enterprises, Coal India, Vedanta, Ambuja Cements, Eicher Motors, TVS Motor Company, Cholamandalam Investment and Finance Company, Mankind Pharma, Swiggy, Dabur India, and JSW Energy. These results could impact sectoral sentiment in Large-Cap and Mid-Cap segments.

In terms of institutional activity, Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net sellers for the eighth consecutive session on Wednesday, offloading shares worth Rs 850.04 crore. In contrast, Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) extended their buying streak to 18 sessions, with a net purchase of Rs 1,829.11 crore.

On the commodities front, gold prices recovered from a one-month low amid renewed demand driven by trade uncertainty. Spot gold gained 0.4 per cent to USD 3,286.99 per ounce, while U.S. gold futures declined 0.5 per cent to USD 3,282.10. Crude oil prices rose for the fourth session in a row, with Brent crude up 0.33 per cent to USD 73.48 and WTI up 0.29 per cent to USD 70.20 per barrel.

The U.S. dollar strengthened following the Fed’s announcement. The dollar index gained 1.01 per cent to 99.89, reflecting its strength against major currencies like the yen and euro.

For today, RBL Bank remain on the F&O ban list.

Disclaimer: The article is for informational purposes only and not investment advice.