Pre-Market Update: GIFT Nifty Signals Muted Start; Wall Street at Record High

Indian benchmark indices, the Sensex and Nifty 50, are likely to open lower on Friday, August 14, amid a weak GIFT Nifty signal. As of 7:27 AM, GIFT Nifty was trading around 24,429, at a discount of 30 points to the previous Nifty futures close, pointing to a muted start.

Asian markets were mixed in early trade, while Wall Street closed higher after softer U.S. producer inflation reduced expectations of another Federal Reserve rate hike in September. Investors will track crude oil prices, U.S.-Iran tensions, global market cues, Q1 earnings, MSCI changes, regulatory developments and institutional flows during Friday's session.

Crude oil extended its decline on Thursday, with Brent crude trading near USD 86.82 a barrel, down 0.29 per cent, while WTI crude stood at USD 81.03, lower by 0.27 per cent. Brent had settled 2.15 per cent lower at USD 87.07 on Thursday, while WTI declined 2.43 per cent to USD 81.25 after a sharp rise in U.S. crude inventories and lower global demand forecasts.

Lower crude prices could provide some relief to oil marketing companies, airlines and paint manufacturers, where fuel or petroleum derivatives form a significant part of operating costs. However, geopolitical risks remain elevated due to the unresolved U.S.-Iran standoff around the Strait of Hormuz.

U.S. Vice President JD Vance said keeping oil and gasoline prices low remains Washington's top priority in the conflict with Iran, followed by preventing Tehran from acquiring a nuclear weapon. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned of unprecedented economic measures against Iran, while Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth said the U.S. Navy could maintain its blockade of Iranian ports indefinitely. The developments keep the Strait of Hormuz and energy supplies in focus for global markets.

International gold traded around USD 4,320.95 an ounce, down 0.66 per cent, while silver was around USD 64.41 an ounce. MCX bullion quotes were inconsistent across available feeds at the data cut and have therefore not been considered.

SEBI has proposed widening access to higher-risk investment products for eligible overseas accredited investors. The proposal could support deeper foreign participation and may be positive for capital-market platforms.

The latest MSCI India index rejig is expected to trigger stock-specific activity. Laurus Labs, Lenskart, Adani Energy Solutions and Groww will enter the MSCI India Index from September 1, while Balkrishna Industries, SBI Cards and Astral will exit.

The RBI's proposed loan-pricing rules could have implications for Banks and NBFCs. The draft seeks greater standardisation of loan spreads, which could reduce lenders' flexibility in pricing loans and may keep investors cautious about the potential impact on margins.

For the August 18 Nifty expiry, the Put-Call Ratio stood at 0.77. On the Put side, significant open interest addition was seen at the 24,300 strike, while the 24,000 strike had significant open interest concentration. On the Call side, notable open interest addition was seen at 24,800, with significant concentration at the 25,000 strike.

The Nifty 50 closed at 24,395.85 on August 13, down 40.10 points or 0.16 per cent. Immediate resistance is placed at 24,426, 24,454 and 24,500, while support is seen at 24,334, 24,305 and 24,259. The index remains above key moving averages, although weakening momentum indicators suggest caution. A decisive break below 24,360 could drag the index towards 24,300-24,200, with 24,000 emerging as an important support level. On the upside, a sustained move above 24,500-24,600 could improve the near-term outlook.

Stock-specific action is likely to remain high following a fresh batch of Q1 results and corporate developments. Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles reported an 80.2 per cent YoY decline in consolidated profit to Rs 775 crore, compared with Rs 3,924 crore, despite a 9.3 per cent rise in revenue to Rs 95,799 crore. The company reported a forex loss of Rs 150 crore against a forex gain of Rs 523 crore last year.

LG Electronics India reported a 27.2 per cent increase in Q1 profit to Rs 652.9 crore, while revenue rose 15.5 per cent YoY to Rs 7,233.4 crore. Honasa Consumer reported an 118.4 per cent jump in profit to Rs 90.2 crore, with revenue increasing 27 per cent to Rs 755.9 crore.

Welspun Living reported an 83.6 per cent rise in Q1 profit to Rs 160.7 crore, while revenue increased 23.7 per cent to Rs 2,795.5 crore. KRBL's profit jumped 73.2 per cent to Rs 260.7 crore, although revenue declined 5.6 per cent to Rs 1,495.9 crore.

Indigo Paints reported a 61 per cent increase in Q1 profit to Rs 41.7 crore, while revenue grew 19.7 per cent to Rs 369.7 crore. Piramal Pharma is also likely to remain in focus as an existing shareholder is expected to sell a 6 per cent stake through block deals, with the offer size estimated at around Rs 1,750 crore, according to CNBC-TV18 sources.

Aditya Birla Real Estate could also attract attention after its subsidiary Birla Estates entered the Navi Mumbai market through the redevelopment of Shiv Sai Co-operative Housing Society in Vashi. The project has an estimated revenue potential of around Rs 2,600 crore.

LICI, Manappuram, SAIL and Bandhan Bank were under the F&O ban on August 13 and remain in focus for derivatives traders.

Institutional flows remained supportive from domestic investors. On August 12, FIIs were net sellers of equities worth Rs 510.69 crore, while DIIs bought shares worth Rs 4,353.09 crore.

The Nifty 50 ended Thursday 40.10 points or 0.16 per cent lower at 24,395.85 after moving between 24,431.60 and 24,311.40. The Sensex gained 113.61 points or 0.15 per cent to 78,079.96, after touching a high of 78,119.39 and a low of 77,665.89. Bank Nifty declined 0.43 per cent to 57,635.25.

U.S. markets ended higher, with the S&P 500 gaining 0.65 per cent to a record 7,798.99. The Nasdaq Composite rose 0.81 per cent to 26,803.03, while the Dow Jones gained 0.13 per cent to 53,839.99. July producer prices were unchanged month-on-month against expectations of a 0.2 per cent increase, strengthening expectations that the Federal Reserve could remain on hold.

Asian markets were mixed in early Friday trade. The Nikkei 225 was around 68,957, up about 0.95 per cent, while South Korea's Kospi traded near 6,899, higher by 1.26 per cent, supported by technology and Semiconductor stocks. Hong Kong's Hang Seng was around 25,204, down 0.76 per cent, while the Shanghai Composite stood near 3,921, lower by 0.15 per cent at the time of the data cut.

Overall, Indian markets are likely to see a cautious start on Friday, with GIFT Nifty pointing to a muted opening. Falling crude prices and stronger U.S. equities provide some support, but geopolitical risks, mixed Asian markets, technical resistance and continued foreign selling could limit gains. Q1 earnings, MSCI-related flows, regulatory developments and stock-specific news are likely to remain the key drivers of trading activity.

Disclaimer: The article is for informational purposes only and not investment advice.