Pre-Market Update: Nifty 50, Sensex Likely to Open Positive; U.S.-Iran Peace Deal, Fed Outlook Key Triggers

Pre-Market Update at 7:38 AM: Indian stock market benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty 50, are likely to open on a positive note on Thursday, June 18, supported by optimism surrounding the U.S.-Iran peace agreement. However, gains may remain capped after the U.S. Federal Reserve maintained a hawkish stance on interest rates.

As of 7:22 AM, Gift Nifty was trading near 24,057, a premium of around 102 points over the previous close of Nifty futures, indicating a positive start for domestic equities. Asian markets traded higher, while Wall Street ended lower overnight after the Federal Reserve signalled the possibility of additional rate hikes later this year.

A major trigger for markets is the interim peace agreement signed between the U.S. and Iran. Both countries officially released the agreement text on Wednesday, aimed at ending the ongoing conflict. U.S. President Donald Trump warned that military action could resume if Iran fails to comply with the deal, while Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif confirmed that the electronically signed agreement has come into immediate effect.

On the monetary policy front, the U.S. Federal Reserve, led by Chair Kevin Warsh, kept benchmark interest rates unchanged at 3.50 per cent–3.75 per cent. However, the latest projections showed that nine policymakers expect at least one rate hike before the end of 2026 as inflationary pressures remain elevated.

Economic data from the U.S. also remained strong. Retail sales rose 0.9 per cent in May, surpassing Reuters estimates of a 0.5 per cent increase. The April reading was revised upward to 0.4 per cent, reflecting continued strength in consumer spending.

Bond markets reacted to the Fed's outlook. Japan's 10-year government bond yield rose 2 basis points to 2.620 per cent, while the five-year yield increased to 1.865 per cent. In the U.S., the 10-year Treasury yield climbed 3 basis points to 4.461 per cent, while the two-year yield jumped 16 basis points to 4.207 per cent, its highest level since February 2025.

Crude oil prices declined after the U.S.-Iran agreement eased concerns about supply disruptions. The deal is expected to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and remove U.S. sanctions on Iranian oil exports. Brent crude futures fell 1.12 per cent to USD 78.66 per barrel, while WTI crude declined 1.28 per cent to USD 75.81 per barrel.

Precious metals traded mixed. Spot gold edged up 0.1 per cent to USD 4,297.83 per ounce, while silver gained 1.2 per cent to USD 68.75 per ounce after a sharp fall in the previous session.

Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar remained near a more-than-two-month high. The dollar index stood at 100.31 after surging 0.85 per cent in the previous session as traders increased bets on future rate hikes.

Ahead of the June series expiry, the Put-Call Ratio (PCR) stood at 1.07. On the put side, the 24,000 strike witnessed notable open interest addition and also held the highest open interest among the nearest out-of-the-money put options. On the call side, fresh open interest addition was seen at the 24,100 strike, while the highest call open interest remained concentrated at the 24,500 strike.

Technically, Nifty 50 closed at 24,085.70 and continues to hover near the key resistance zone of 24,100. A decisive move above this level could trigger an advance toward 24,140 and 24,193, with a broader upside target of 24,500. On the downside, immediate support is placed at 24,002, followed by 23,969 and 23,916. The broader support zone remains between 23,900 and 23,800.

Among stocks in focus, Rail Vikas Nigam Limited (RVNL) received a Letter of Acceptance from East Coast Railway for a bridge Construction project on the Bhadrak–Vizianagaram railway section valued at Rs 967.92 crore. HFCL secured a Rs 2,666.09 crore order from RVNL for the BharatNet Phase-III project in Uttar Pradesh, covering telecom network deployment and 10 years of maintenance.

Bosch Home Comfort India will remain in focus after promoter Bosch Global Software Technologies announced plans to sell up to 7.97 per cent stake through an offer for sale (OFS) on June 18 and 19 at a floor price of Rs 1,150 per share. Lemon Tree Hotels expanded its footprint in Rajasthan by opening a new hotel in Sri Ganganagar, taking its total presence in the state to 23 properties.

Balkrishna Industries appointed Saroj Kumar Khuntia as Chief Financial Officer with effect from June 18, while Madhusudan Bajaj retired upon superannuation. Lupin launched Azilsartan Medoxomil Tablets in the U.S. market after receiving approval from the U.S. FDA and is eligible for 180-day generic drug exclusivity as the exclusive first-to-file applicant.

Kaynes Technologies remains under the F&O ban for the June 18 trading session.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) remained net buyers on June 17, purchasing equities worth Rs 101.59 crore. Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) bought shares worth Rs 1,561.40 crore during the session.

Indian equities extended their winning streak for a fourth consecutive session on Wednesday, aided by easing crude oil prices and optimism over the U.S.-Iran peace agreement. The Sensex gained 347.14 points, or 0.45 per cent, to close at 77,155.62, while the Nifty 50 advanced 96.55 points, or 0.40 per cent, to settle at 24,085.70.

U.S. markets ended lower after the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged but signalled the possibility of another rate hike later this year. The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 507.12 points, or 0.98 per cent, to 51,492.55. The S&P 500 dropped 91.25 points, or 1.21 per cent, to 7,420.10, while the Nasdaq Composite fell 354.69 points, or 1.34 per cent, to 26,021.66.

Among major technology stocks, Nvidia fell 1.33 per cent, Microsoft declined 3.79 per cent, Amazon dropped 3.46 per cent, Alphabet lost 2.53 per cent, Apple slipped 1.10 per cent, Meta Platforms tanked 5.44 per cent, Tesla fell 2.05 per cent, and SpaceX dropped 4.95 per cent.

Disclaimer: The article is for informational purposes only and not investment advice.