Pre-Market Update: Sensex, Nifty 50 Likely to See Weak Start On Monday As U.S.-Iran Ceasefire Talks Collapsed

Pre-Market Update at 7:48 AM: The Indian benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty 50, are likely to witness a volatile start on Monday, April 13, tracking global market pressure after the collapse of U.S.-Iran ceasefire talks and a sharp surge in crude oil prices. Rising geopolitical tensions have raised concerns that the Middle East conflict may persist longer than anticipated, weighing on investor sentiment.

Asian markets declined, while U.S. stock futures also traded lower after the United States announced a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, fueling fears of a potential global energy crisis. However, as of 7:29 am, GIFT Nifty hovered around 23,776, up by 315 points from the previous close of Nifty futures, indicating a positive start for Indian equity benchmarks despite global concerns.

Among the key triggers, the U.S.-Iran ceasefire talks held in Pakistan ended without any agreement. A senior Iranian official blamed “excessive demands” from the U.S. side. Following the failed negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program, U.S. President Donald Trump ordered a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, further escalating geopolitical tensions.

The U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) stated that the blockade will come into effect from 10 a.m. New York time on Monday. The move will target vessels heading to or departing from Iranian ports, while ships traveling between non-Iranian ports will still be allowed to pass through the Strait.

On the macroeconomic front, U.S. inflation data showed a sharp rise in March. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.9 per cent during the month, taking the annual inflation rate to 3.3 per cent, compared to 2.4 per cent in February. Additionally, Japanese government bond yields surged to multi-decade highs, with the 10-year yield rising 5.5 basis points to 2.49 per cent, its highest level since June 1997, while the five-year yield climbed 4 basis points to a record 1.90 per cent.

Crude oil prices rallied sharply following the breakdown in U.S.-Iran talks and the announcement of the naval blockade. Brent crude surged 7.05 per cent to USD 101.91 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose 7.86 per cent to USD 104.16 per barrel.

From a derivatives perspective, the Put-Call Ratio (PCR) stands at 1.17, indicating a slightly bullish undertone. Significant open interest on the Put (PE) side is concentrated at the 23,500 level, suggesting strong support, while Call (CE) open interest at the 24,500 level indicates a key resistance zone.

Technically, the broader market trend remains positive, supported by continued short-covering. The Nifty 50 could move towards the 24,000–24,300 range in the near term, while immediate support is placed around the 23,635 level.

In the derivatives segment, Sammaan Capital and SAIL will remain under the F&O ban on April 13.

Institutional flows remained supportive, with Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) turning net buyers after a prolonged selling streak of 27 sessions, purchasing equities worth Rs 672.09 crore. Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) also remained buyers, investing Rs 410.05 crore in equities.

On Friday, Indian markets snapped a six-week losing streak, posting their biggest weekly gains in over five years. The Nifty 50 rose 1.16 per cent to close at 24,050.6, while the Sensex gained 1.2 per cent to end at 77,550.25, with both indices rallying nearly 6 per cent for the week.

Globally, Wall Street ended the latest session on a mixed note. The Dow Jones declined 0.56 per cent to 47,916.57 and the S&P 500 slipped 0.11 per cent to 6,816.89, while the Nasdaq gained 0.35 per cent to close at 22,902.89. Despite the mixed daily performance, U.S. markets posted strong weekly gains of over 3 per cent, supported by earlier optimism around ceasefire talks.

In commodities, gold and silver prices declined amid rising inflation concerns and escalating geopolitical tensions. Spot gold fell 0.43 per cent to slip below USD 4,750 per ounce, while spot silver dropped 1.89 per cent to USD 74.4 per ounce during Asian trading hours on April 13.

Disclaimer: The article is for informational purposes only and not investment advice.