US-Israel-Iran War: How Stopping SIPs During Panic Can Cost Rs 4.34 Lakh on a Rs 9.90 Lakh Investment

If you are an investor, the headlines right now are hard to ignore. The conflict involving the US, Israel and Iran entered its ninth day on Sunday, March 8, with no visible signs of relief. President Trump’s call for an “unconditional surrender” by Iran has added to the tension and triggered a sharp spike in crude oil prices. Oil has just recorded its biggest weekly percentage jump on record. At the same time, the rupee has slipped to a fresh all time low, breaching the 92 per dollar mark for the first time.

The pressure does not end there. Foreign institutional investors have been relentless sellers in March. So far this month, FII net outflows stand at Rs 21,831.19 crore. To put that in perspective, this is more than three times the outflow seen in February, when FIIs pulled out Rs 6,640.78 crore. It is also more than half of January’s outflow, and this has happened in just four trading sessions of March. Against such a backdrop, the mood can quickly turn apocalyptic.

And that is precisely when most investors face their toughest test.

In periods like these, investor behaviour is often driven less by logic and more by fear, loss aversion and panic. The mind starts looking for safety. One common response is, “I will buy later when things improve,” or “Let me stop my SIPs until the environment becomes better.” It is a dilemma almost every investor has faced at some point.

But what happens when you actually stop?

Before answering that, it is worth recalling the story of the tortoise and the hare. The hare, overconfident and distracted, pauses in the middle of the race, assuming he still has time on his side. The tortoise keeps moving steadily and eventually wins. The lesson is simple, but powerful: slow and steady wins the race.

The same principle applies to investing.

Let us take two investors. The first is Tortoise, who keeps investing steadily through all phases of the market. The second is Hare, who loses confidence during a correction, pauses his SIPs, and resumes only when things begin to look comfortable again.

Here is the math.

For illustration, we have considered HDFC Flexi Cap Fund Direct Plan Growth Option.

Investor Tortoise: The Power Of Staying The Course With SIPs

Investor Tortoise started a SIP in January 2018, with Rs 10,000 being invested on the 3rd of every month. He stayed invested throughout, including during the Covid led market correction, when sentiment had turned extremely fragile and uncertainty was at its peak.

From January 3, 2018 to March 3, 2026, Investor Tortoise built a corpus of Rs 22,41,438. The cumulative units accumulated stood at 1,021.49.

The total investment made by Investor Tortoise was Rs 9,90,000 over 99 months.

Investor Hare: Pausing SIPs Out Of Fear And Trying To Catch Up Later

Investor Hare also began investing on the same date, in the same fund, and with the same monthly SIP amount of Rs 10,000. However, when markets fell sharply during Covid, he reacted like many anxious investors do. He decided to stop his SIP, reasoning that there was little point in continuing to invest while everything was declining.

So, from January 2018 to March 2020, Investor Hare’s SIP portfolio looked like this:

At that point, the market value of his investment stood at ₹2,60,971, lower than the cumulative amount invested of Rs 2,70,000. The total units accumulated stood at 404.43.

Importantly, Investor Hare did not redeem his existing investment. He only stopped fresh SIP contributions.

Fast forward to March 2026, and that same portfolio had grown from Rs 2,60,971 to Rs 8,87,424.64.

Hare Tries To Catch Up By Increasing The SIP Amount

Investor Hare resumed his SIP only from January 1, 2023, once the Covid disruption had receded and confidence had returned. To make up for the 33 missed months between April 2020 and December 2022, he increased his monthly SIP from Rs 10,000 to Rs 18,692, so that his total investment would broadly match that of Investor Tortoise.

The portfolio built from this resumed SIP stood as follows:

So, as on March 3, 2026, the total corpus of Investor Hare stood at:

Rs 8,87,425 + Rs 9,19,758 = Rs 18,07,183

The total cumulative investment made by him stood at:

Rs 7,28,988 + Rs 2,60,971 = Rs 9,89,959

What The Comparison Tells Us: Stopping SIPs Can Cost Dearly

Both Investor Tortoise and Investor Hare invested almost the same amount, roughly Rs 9.90 lakh. Yet the final outcomes were meaningfully different.

Investor Tortoise, who stayed the course, built a corpus of about Rs 22.41 lakh. That translates into an absolute gain of 126.4 per cent on the invested amount.

Investor Hare, despite eventually increasing his SIP amount, ended up with a corpus of Rs 18.07 lakh. His absolute gain stood at 82.54 per cent.

The difference is striking. Investor Tortoise generated around Rs 4.34 lakh more than Investor Hare. That is roughly 44 per cent of the original investment amount. In percentage terms, the final corpus of Investor Tortoise was about 24 per cent higher than that of Investor Hare.

The reason is simple. By pausing his SIP during the correction phase, Investor Hare missed the opportunity to accumulate units at lower NAVs. Even though he later increased his SIP amount, he could not fully recover the advantage lost during those months of market weakness. In SIP investing, the most valuable units are often the ones bought when sentiment is at its worst.

Conclusion

The story of the tortoise and the hare is not just a fable. It is a useful investing lesson. Wealth creation is often less about brilliance and more about discipline. The investor who remains consistent through discomfort usually ends up in a better position than the one who keeps waiting for clarity.

This example shows that even when Investor Hare tried to compensate by sharply increasing his SIP later, his final corpus still remained well below that of Investor Tortoise. The gap came from one critical factor: the lower number of units accumulated.

Markets will always give reasons to worry. Headlines will swing from hope to fear and back again. But long term investing rewards those who keep showing up, especially when the environment feels most uncertain.

As Benjamin Graham put it, “The individual investor should act consistently as an investor and not as a speculator.”

Disclaimer: The article is for informational purposes only and not investment advice.